Trade poison: EU seeks to completely sever economic ties with Russia
The European Commission is creating a legal framework for the complete severance of economic ties with Russia, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Therefore, it is impossible to restore contacts with the current leadership in Brussels. Despite the fact that the trade turnover between Russia and the EU is declining, Moscow maintains cooperation with individual countries, primarily with Hungary and Slovakia. While the EU is preparing the 20th package of sanctions, the Russian Federation is considering a complete halt to gas exports to EU countries. This could cost Europeans about €13.8 billion a year, according to calculations by Izvestia.
Lack of prerequisites for cooperation between the Russian Federation and the EU
Relations between Russia and the European Union are at their lowest point in history, and there are no prospects for normalization yet.
— We see the desire of the European Commission headed by Ursula von der Leyen to create a long-term legal foundation for a complete severance of economic ties with our country, despite the damage already suffered by the European Union. There are no prerequisites for restoring cooperation behind the rampant Russophobia prevailing in European institutions," Vladislav Maslennikov, head of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
According to him, "cave Russophobia is passed off as expert knowledge about Russia." At the same time, Russia has never politicized economic cooperation, he added.
— Life, however, does not stand still. It is no secret that many of the niches that European companies once occupied in the Russian market have been transferred to our partners from other countries or have been mastered by Russian businesses. Of course, this factor will also be taken into account in the event of a change in Brussels' foreign policy and the emergence of prerequisites for more constructive cooperation," the diplomat stressed.
The mandate of the current European Commission is valid until October 2029. Its composition is focused solely on sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation: in February, the 20th package of restrictions was presented, but it has not yet been possible to adopt it, primarily due to the position of Hungary and Slovakia. Budapest will not lift its veto until Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline resume. Hungary accuses Ukraine of deliberately blocking them. Earlier, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that the government has intelligence information that indicates that the pipeline is operational and Kiev is preventing supplies solely for political reasons.
But Greece, Italy, Spain and Malta also had objections to the new restrictions. As Western media reported, they were not satisfied with the restrictions on foreign ports and banks related to the export of Russian oil. Rome, for example, opposed sanctions on the port of Kulevi in Georgia, Greece and Malta opposed restrictions on the port of Karimun in Indonesia. Italy and Spain did not agree to include the Bank of Cuba in the sanctions package.
Trade relations between Russia and the EU have accumulated a huge number of contradictions that are not directly related to the topic of Ukraine, said Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry.
— First of all, the European Union is basically tightening its trade policy, and not only with regard to Russia. Secondly, the EU has either imposed restrictions on a significant part of the most competitive Russian product groups, or has initiated appropriate trade proceedings, or is using other protective measures that are applied in parallel with sanctions," the expert added.
According to him, the European Union in its current configuration cannot afford to declare its readiness to restore relations. This would mean acknowledging the failure of the entire policy of recent years.
Gas supplies to Europe
According to Eurostat, from the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2025, EU exports to Russia decreased by 61%, while imports from Russia fell by a catastrophic 90%. Last year, the trade turnover amounted to 57.8 billion euros.
Russia is currently supplying pipeline gas to Europe via virtually the only remaining route, the Turkish Stream. Hungary and Slovakia are among the key buyers. Until recently, they were also recipients of Russian oil through the Druzhba oil pipeline. Moscow calls the Hungarian and Slovak sides "reliable counterparties" and directly separates these two countries from the rest of the European Union.
But the backbone of Russian exports to Europe is formed by liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. By the end of 2025, Russia remained the second largest supplier of LNG to the EU, holding 16% of the market. His key customers were Belgium, Spain and France. On January 26, the EU Council approved a legal act that sets strict deadlines for the abandonment of liquefied Russian gas: a complete ban should be implemented by the end of 2027, and a starting threshold limiting new contracts and spot purchases will enter into force on March 18, 2026.
On March 4, Vladimir Putin, amid rising energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, admitted that Russia could "get ahead" of Europe, suggesting that it should consider stopping supplies "right now" rather than waiting for the Europeans to abandon it. The government and relevant companies should work on this issue. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov clarified that this was an analytical assignment, not a decision.
Taking into account the growing total share of LNG in the EU import structure, the potential termination of such supplies will be very significant, but not critical, Egor Sergeev believes. If the Russian side refuses to supply, a "gap" of about 20 billion cubic meters of gas (13.8 million tons of LNG) will form in the European energy balance, Izvestia estimates. Replacing this volume on the open market at a time when prices have jumped to a three-year high of €65.79 per MWh will cost Europeans €13.8 billion per year.
In the current circumstances, Russia will further reorient its supplies to other markets of friendly countries in Asia, Africa or Latin America.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
