"Samurai" took off: why Russians rushed to buy Japanese cars

Sales of new passenger cars in February were slightly lower than in January. However, there is a slight increase of 2.5% compared to February 2025. At the same time, sales of Japanese cars are growing, while sales of one of Lada's bestsellers, on the contrary, are declining. Izvestia found out the details.

The ups and downs of February

Over the past month, 80,027 new passenger cars were sold in Russia, which is 2.5% more than in February 2025. This was reported to Izvestia on March 4 by experts from the analytical agency Autostat, citing data from JSC PPK.

Lada still dominates, despite a decline in sales to 19,040 vehicles. At the end of winter, it accounted for about a quarter of sales — 23.79%. The most popular foreign car brand has again become the Chinese Haval — 10 155 units. The next two positions in the brand rating are occupied by the domestic Tenet and the Belarusian Belgee — 8626 and 4694 units, respectively. Geely closes the top five with 4664 units. The top ten popular brands also include Japanese Mazda (2,773 units), Chinese Changan (2,111 units) and Jetour (2,035 units), Japanese Toyota (1,975 units) and Russian Solaris (1,504 units).

Three brands from the top ten showed negative dynamics in February, Changan (- 52.3%), Lada (- 22.5%) and Geely (- 8.6%). The rest of the brands turned out to be "in the black", and Mazda added the most — an increase of almost 20 times. First of all, due to the low base. Sales of Belgee and Toyota have more than doubled.

Lada Granta retained the title of the Russian bestseller according to the results of February 2026, it sold 7,289 units. Tenet T7 was in second place for the first time. It sold slightly better than the bestseller among Haval Jolion foreign cars — 4641 cars against 4336.

This is followed by four models with similar indicators (in the range of 3-3.5 thousand units): The Belgee X50 crossover, the Lada Niva Travel SUV, the Tenet T4 crossover and the Lada Vesta family. Completing the top ten are the Mazda CX-5 crossover, the Lada Niva Legend SUV and the Geely Monjaro crossover.
Sales decreased for Lada Vesta (- 62.8%), Granta (- 23.4%), Niva Legend (- 3.1%), and Geely Monjaro (- 6.1%). The Mazda CX-5 has "grown" more than others — by about 29 times.

"February did not meet expectations"

The market situation was influenced by several factors, experts told Izvestia.

"Despite the year-on-year sales growth, we expected other results, slightly better — around 85,000 units. Therefore, we can say that February did not meet expectations. Firstly, the effect of "washed out demand" is still felt by inertia. It was formed after an abnormally high demand in the fourth quarter of 2025. The second reason is the still high key rate, at which the placement of citizens' funds on deposits is beneficial," said Nikolai Ivanov, Director of the New Car Sales Department at Rolf.

The 2.5% increase is more likely a sign of stabilization than the beginning of an active recovery, said Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto. The market exists in the mode of restrained demand — the purchasing power is still limited by the high key rate and the remaining price level, she noted.

Import has been replaced

The popularity of the young Tenet brand is explained by the fact that the buyer reacts to only one stimulus — the price, says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem.

— People are faced with a choice of what to buy: an ordinary car or something more interesting, more fun, but more expensive. It seems to me that now most people will say that they will choose a more "down—to-earth" car," the expert noted.

Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat, drew attention to the fact that Tenet has practically replaced the Chery brand in Russia. Against the background of growing sales of Tenet, whose models are manufactured in Russia, Chery imports have steadily declined, with only 41 vehicles imported into our country in the first two months of 2026. The Chery brand and other brands of this popular concern also left the top ten, Autostat experts noted. In February, Jaecoo took 11th place, Exeed was in 12th position, and Chery was in 13th. This may be due to the exhaustion of car stocks at dealers and a pause before the withdrawal of updated products.

The Japanese alternative

Autostat noted that the share of Russian-made cars is growing every month, while net imports are gradually decreasing. In the near future, the Russian market will be dominated by two large segments — Lada and localized Chinese foreign cars, including those under Russian and Belarusian brands. Direct imports will account for a small share of sales.

At the same time, despite the indexation of the recycling fee, in February the share of alternative imports of new cars increased to almost 16%. Demand for Mazda, Toyota and Volkswagen has increased significantly.

Nikolai Ivanov explains the popularity of the Mazda CX-5 crossover with attractive purchase conditions and trust in the brand. This model with an engine up to 160 hp is being transported to Russia with the payment of a preferential "scrap", 3,400 rubles per end user. The price of the car is about 2.8-2.9 million rubles.

For the conservative part of the audience, the CX-5 remains a desirable alternative to mass-produced Chinese crossovers, Irina Frank believes.

We took a break

As for the decline in Lada Vesta sales, Irina Frank considers this the main surprise of February.

— There are several factors at work here. Firstly, some of the demand could be redistributed in favor of the new Lada Iskra, as well as the more affordable Niva and Granta, which remain bestsellers. Secondly, Vesta faced fierce competition from Tenet and Belgee in its price niche, which for the same money offer crossovers with an automatic transmission and a different level of equipment. And finally, Vesta's main audience is family buyers, who are the most sensitive to loan rates, and they have probably taken a break now or gone to competitors, the expert believes.

According to Igor Morzharetto, partner of Autostat, the current economic situation has had the greatest impact on buyers of the most inexpensive cars. AvtoVAZ did not comment on the sales situation in February, but reported on the launch of special conditions for the purchase of the entire model range in March.

At the same time, Sergey Tselikov believes that a reliable affordable foreign car for 1.5 million rubles of the Volkswagen Polo or Hyundai Solaris/Kia Rio level could provide additional 300-400 thousand sales. However, most automakers are trying to compete exclusively in the crossover segment with similar models. According to Autostat, the current weighted average price of a new car is 3.5 million rubles, which is 12% more than in February 2025.

What will happen to the market next

Rolf expects the market to recover in March and demand to grow. According to Nikolai Ivanov, the result will be around 95-100 thousand pieces.

— March is traditionally better than the first two months of the year. Do not forget about simple arithmetic, there are 3 more days in March than in February. We expect that the effect of "washed out demand" has come to an end and will finally disappear in March, which may become a driver for market growth, he noted.

The main driver, according to Irina Frank, will be the "effect of the departing train." Starting from April 1, a serious tightening of the rules for calculating scrap collection for cars imported from the EAEU countries is expected. In her opinion, this will encourage buyers who have been eyeing imported models to close deals in March in order to avoid price increases.

— In the past, poor sales at the level of 80 thousand were caused by several negative factors that came together: a rise in the key rate, overstocking. There was a gap in terms of negotiations with America. After that, "waiting people" appeared, that is, people who were waiting for the return of global brands. Now there is practically no "waiting list" factor, and the low market is determined only by the fact that demand was delayed until the end of last year," said Sergey Tselikov during the online conference "Autostat. RAM"