Settle the dialogue: the United States and Iran still have channels for communication
Iran and the United States, despite the outbreak of war, have a communication channel through Switzerland, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the European country told Izvestia. In addition, Russia is ready to act as a mediator, said Mikhail Ulyanov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to International Organizations in Vienna. However, the Americans, according to him, do not show interest in this. Theoretically, other countries can provide their services, including Oman, which enjoys the special trust of Tehran. The Russian Foreign Ministry expects new meetings of the UN Security Council on the conflict in the Middle East, but notes that the conditions for making agreed decisions have not yet developed.
Iran and the United States maintain a channel for dialogue
Iran, Israel and the United States have been exchanging massive strikes since February 28, while there are practically no public signals of readiness to sit down at the negotiating table. On the contrary, the rhetoric is only getting tougher. According to US President Donald Trump, the moment has come for Iran when it is "too late" to seek a diplomatic dialogue.
However, according to Axios sources, Israeli intelligence suspected the existence of secret contacts between Washington and Tehran on the topic of a possible cease-fire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked the White House for clarification to find out if any negotiations are being conducted secretly from an ally.
The American side assured that it does not discuss such issues "behind Israel's back." At the same time, US officials confirm that Iran did send messages through the Gulf countries and other regional players, but Washington left them unanswered.
In turn, the Iranian representative to the UN in Geneva, Ali Bahraini, denied the statements of the American leader about Tehran's attempts to make contact, stressing that defense, not diplomacy, is now a priority for the republic.
Nevertheless, the communication channel between the parties remains open.
— Switzerland remains ready to provide its good offices to all parties. The mandate of the patron state is in effect, and the existing communication channel between the United States and Iran remains open, the Swiss Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
Swiss diplomats did not specify whether there were attempts to use it after the outbreak of the war.
Bern has represented U.S. interests in Iran under the protecting power mechanism since 1980. Immediately before the outbreak of hostilities, the parties had been in indirect contact for three weeks: in February, three rounds of consultations took place, the last of which ended in Geneva on February 26, just two days before the escalation began.
It is important to note that Oman, not Switzerland, played the role of the key mediator in the negotiations. The negotiations were conducted in an indirect format: Omani representatives conveyed the positions of the delegations, and following the Geneva meeting, the parties even announced "significant progress" and plans to continue the dialogue at the technical level in Vienna.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Information of Oman with a request to clarify whether they are currently in contact with the United States and Iran, as well as whether the Sultanate is ready to continue acting as an intermediary. The media reported that the Omani ports were allegedly attacked by UAVs. However, the Iranian army denies attacking the country.
Oman's choice as the initial mediator between Iran and the United States is not surprising. First of all, this is a "diplomatic brand" created by the authorities of this country — they actively helped resolve conflicts in the Middle East, including Yemen, and ensured their equidistance from all centers of power, says orientalist Leonid Tsukanov.
Secondly, Muscat and Tehran have developed a very close and trusting relationship. The religious-historical factor plays an important role. In the 1970s, during the uprising in Oman's Dhofar, it was Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi who sent thousands of Iranian soldiers to help Sultan Qaboos. In response, when the Islamic revolution broke out in Iran, Oman, unlike many other Arabian monarchies, did not sever ties with Tehran.
Oman is the only country where the majority profess Ibadism, the third trend in Islam after Sunnism and Shiism. Thus, Muscat acts as a kind of religious "broker". Finally, the countries are essentially sharing control over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
Russia's mediation role
Moscow could also take on the role of mediator.
— Of course, if necessary, Russia is ready to provide mediation services. We have relevant experience," Mikhail Ulyanov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to International Organizations in Vienna, told Izvestia.
During the Vienna negotiations on the restoration of the "nuclear deal" in 2021-2022, the Russian delegation repeatedly helped Westerners and Iranians find a common language, the diplomat said. Both, he said, expressed deep appreciation.
— I think that Tehran would gladly use our mediation services in the current situation. But the Americans make it clear that they do not need intermediaries. They say that Washington will cope with the current tasks on its own. In fact, the Americans do it very poorly," Ulyanov said.
The United States actually issues an ultimatum to the Iranians, and when Tehran, as is customary in diplomatic practice, tries to propose some kind of adjustments, "the United States stops talking and resorts to force of arms," he said.
Now it is difficult, according to Ulyanov, to imagine the resumption of the negotiation process between Washington and Tehran. It is important for the United States to exclude the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, and for Iran to lift American sanctions. But this cannot be achieved by military means, so negotiations will be in demand at the next stages, Ulyanov believes.
Meanwhile, Moscow is already trying to help. On March 2, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The Emir stressed that the Iranian retaliatory strikes directly affected the Emirates, although the UAE territory was not used as a springboard for attacks. The Russian leader expressed readiness to bring these signals to Tehran and assist in stabilizing the situation.
Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud noted in a conversation with Vladimir Putin that the Russian side can play a positive, stabilizing role these days, given its friendly relations with both Iran and the Persian Gulf countries.
In addition, a telephone conversation took place with the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, who currently chairs the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf.
Who else can help stop the war
In the current circumstances, there are no prospects for dialogue on international platforms or for the development of a consensus document on the Iranian issue in the UN Security Council.
— We are not at this stage. The Security Council may and will continue to meet on this topic, but so far there are no conditions for reaching consensus on some common decisions and fixing common positions," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.
Many countries could join the conflict settlement, but the chances of achieving a result in the near future are modest.
— We have heard statements about the readiness of certain countries to mediate in them. We assess the chances of this in relation to individual countries very critically, that is, as simply unrealistic. Nevertheless, let's look at the dynamics of contacts between the leaders of the countries of the region who are interested in translating the situation into a political and diplomatic settlement," Alexander Alimov added.
The Arabian monarchies, with the exception of Oman, are unlikely to be able to play the role of full-fledged intermediaries, since they themselves have become indirect participants in the campaign. Radio reconnaissance was conducted from their territory, intensive strikes are being carried out on their territory, including oil refineries, Leonid Tsukanov noted. Although Oman, if the fact of the Iranian attacks is eventually confirmed, may abandon mediation efforts, since the strikes violate the bilateral security agreement, the expert added.
The UAE and Qatar have been hit harder than others and are stung by Iran's actions. And although all Arab players are interested in ending the conflict, as full-fledged mediators, they are more likely to not satisfy Iran now. In addition, there is a high risk that the Iranian delegation will be subjected to provocations on the territory of countries allied with the United States, the expert said.
It will be difficult to involve China in the negotiations due to strained relations with the United States. Although Beijing is trying to lobby for a cease-fire under the auspices of the United Nations and supports Russian approaches to the settlement.
— Trump, of course, may try to play a subtle combination and involve as intermediaries one of the countries that previously joined the Peace Council (for example, Kazakhstan) and thereby increase the weight of the platform in the eyes of the world majority. However, this is unlikely to work, especially given that Iran does not interact with the Council in any way," Tsukanov said.
By the way, Kazakhstan is ready to offer a platform for negotiations, but there have been no appeals yet, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the republic reported. Earlier, the country hosted more than 20 rounds of negotiations between the Syrian authorities, when Bashar al-Assad was president, and opposition circles in Syria. Turkey remains a conditionally neutral country, but Ankara, according to Tsukanov, will not be able to impose a peaceful line on Israel, including due to deepening disagreements and threats from West Jerusalem against official Ankara.
As a result, it turns out that Russia, which has the approaches (and, more importantly, the trust) of all the warring parties, can still become the most promising mediator, the expert concluded.
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