Gas ticket: EU may postpone ban on Russian gas imports
Against the background of the rapid rise in gas prices, which have jumped by 60% since the beginning of March, the European Commission has decided to convene a Coordination Group on gas issues; the meeting is scheduled for March 4. Industry experts do not rule out that EU officials may postpone the ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) under short-term contracts, which was supposed to come into force at the end of April. The EC Regulation allows such exceptions for reasons of "energy security". Otherwise, analysts admit that a prolonged lack of supplies may lead to an increase in prices over $1,000 per thousand cubic meters. What awaits the European gas market against the background of the Middle East conflict is in the Izvestia article.
What made Europe discuss the gas issue
Against the background of a sharp increase in gas prices — they have increased by almost 60% since the beginning of spring, and on March 3 reached $780 per thousand cubic meters — the European Commission decided to assemble a Coordination Group on gas issues. At a meeting to be held on March 4, representatives of the governments of the EU member states will assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy supplies. According to Reuters, the group is engaged in monitoring gas storage capacity and security of supply, as well as coordinating crisis response measures.
The situation in the European gas sector cannot be called anything but a crisis. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe on February 27, on the eve of the start of the Middle East confrontation, the level of gas reserves in underground storage facilities dropped to 30% — one of the lowest levels in late February in the entire history of observations.
On March 2, after the Iranian attacks on energy facilities, Qatar, one of the largest gas exporters in the world, suspended LNG production at the Qatar Energy plant. In addition, the adviser to the Prime Minister and the official representative of the Emirate's Foreign Ministry, Majid bin Mohammed al-Ansari, said that Qatar was stopping gas production at a number of fields.
The situation was also affected by Iran's statement on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which, according to experts, about 20% of the world's oil supplies and a similar volume of LNG sent to Europe and Asian countries passed. Brigadier General Ibrahim Jabari, adviser to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced the closure of the strategic strait and warned of drastic measures against attempts to transport oil from the region. According to him, oil pipelines may also be targeted, the Tasnim news agency reports.
By the end of 2025, according to the Bruegel European analytical center, Norway became the leader in gas supplies to Europe — 97.1 billion cubic meters (31%). The United States is in second place with 82.9 billion cubic meters (26.4%), and Algeria is in third place with 38.6 billion cubic meters (12.3%). Russian fuel exports to the EU decreased by 30% compared to 2024, to 38 billion cubic meters, mainly due to the termination of transit through Ukraine. Of the Persian Gulf countries, only Qatar supplied LNG to Europe, whose share in total imports was only 8%.
What measures can the European Union take?
The European Union is likely to postpone the ban on short-term LNG contracts with Russia, which will begin on April 25, 2026, and with negative developments for the global LNG market, the ban on long-term contracts will also take effect on January 1, 2027, says Maria Belova, research director at the Implementation consulting company.
The expert noted that the regulation provides for exceptions for reasons of "energy security", the European Commission may temporarily suspend the ban in case of sudden supply disruptions, for example, when the gas shortage in the market exceeds 15-20% of demand. According to her, among other EU measures, quotas of supplies for different categories of consumers may be introduced when creating a shortage.
Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, noted that according to the regulations adopted in January, the EC may suspend the ban on LNG supplies from Russia under short-term contracts for up to four weeks.
— This is possible if there is an "exceptional need" and a real threat to the energy security of one or more EU member states. At the same time, they must first introduce a state of emergency in the energy sector," the source told Izvestia.
However, he believes that the EU countries will try to "save face" to the last and not admit that they have driven themselves into a corner by refusing energy cooperation with the Russian Federation.
Vyacheslav Mishchenko, head of the Center for Analysis and Technology Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex, believes that the EU may postpone the ban on Russian LNG supplies or even an offer to supply some gas. At the same time, in his opinion, the reaction of Russian manufacturers in this case will be ambiguous.
— Is it worth making concessions in this format or trying to help Europe, which has driven itself into this energy corner, or still take a principled position? I think that now there will be a niche for our gas in Asia," the expert said.
As Izvestia wrote, the EU has increased purchases of Russian fuel this year. In January, Russia supplied a record 2.1–2.3 billion cubic meters of LNG to the countries of the Old World.
At the same time, as Vyacheslav Mishchenko reminded, pumping into the UGS for the next season should begin now.
— We hope that Europe will be able to purchase additional gas in other regions. But something tells me: It will be very difficult, because the main competitors in the global market are the countries of the Asia—Pacific region," the source said.
Izvestia sent inquiries to the European Commission, Gazprom and Novatek.
What gas prices should Europe expect?
The current rise in gas prices is not yet a consequence of the shortage, but a panic amid expectations of a shortage of gas. The real competition for LNG between its main consumers has not yet begun, says Maria Belova, Director of research at the Implementation consulting company.
— Since liquefied gas will float to where it will be paid more for, we can expect a further continuation of the price rally. As for specific values, we have an example in the spring of 2022: in the event of a long—term cessation of LNG supplies from the Persian Gulf, gas quotes may amount to several thousand dollars per thousand cubic meters, the expert believes.
Goldman Sachs analysts also warned that European gas prices could more than double if supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are suspended for a month or more.
"A hypothetical longer-term disruption of natural gas transit through the Strait of Hormuz, lasting more than two months, is likely to lead to an increase in natural gas prices in Europe above €100 per 1 MWh (about $1,225 per 1 thousand cubic meters at the current exchange rate on the Forex market), which will provoke a decrease in global demand for gas.", — said the analysts.
According to Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, regardless of how long the Middle East conflict lasts (although the US presidential administration is already saying that it will drag on for at least five weeks), Europe will live in conditions of high gas prices for the whole of 2026, as the issue needs to be resolved. with the injection of raw materials into UGS.
Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, believes that gas prices this year will be higher than the average in 2025. Short-term jumps of over $10,000 per thousand cubic meters are possible, but they will not remain at record levels for a long time.
— Today, everyone remembers the increase in gas prices in the spring of 2022, when the cost of gas in Europe jumped to almost $ 4,000 per thousand cubic meters, but I do not think that the quotes are at this level or even above $ 1,000. they can last a long time," the expert noted.
According to her, if the conflict escalates significantly, Europe will have nowhere to go but to turn to Russia again, as this will be a matter of survival for it.
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