The expert predicted a decrease in the number of vacancies to 20% in 2026

In 2026, the Russian labor market is entering a cooling phase: companies are reducing hiring plans, and wage growth is slowing. According to Adviros recruitment company, the number of vacancies during the year may decrease by up to 20% compared to the level of 2025. Ilona Platonova, an analyst at Adviros HR company, told Izvestia on March 4 about what led to changes in the market and what other trends will appear in the field of hiring this year.

According to experts, in the first quarter of 2026, employers maintain conservative recruitment plans during a period of low investment activity and adaptation to changes in tax legislation. The overall level of demand from employers has been reduced. There will probably be 10-20% fewer vacancies during the year. The trend began to reverse in the second half of last year: by the end of 2025, the number of new vacancies on the largest job search platforms had decreased by about a third. At the same time, the demand for scarce workers and engineering professions, especially in the regions, remains high.

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Cooling is uneven. Against the background of reduced business demand, the number of resumes increased by 30-40%, which increased competition for jobs, primarily among office staff. If the trend continues, in 2026 it is possible that this part of applicants will transfer to working professions with a lower entry threshold.

Separately, experts highlight the salary equalization between megacities and regions. Back in the fourth quarter of 2025, there was a noticeable increase in supply in cities with populations of up to 500,000 people. Regional factories, clinics, and infrastructure enterprises are forced to compete with Moscow and St. Petersburg for highly specialized specialists. According to Adviros' forecast, the increased demand for personnel in 2026 is expected in the Far Eastern, Volga and Northwestern Federal Districts against the background of the implementation of investment projects.

"We are currently witnessing a transition from an acute deficit to a moderate balance. We are talking about the compression of hiring, rather than eliminating the personnel shortage as a whole. 2026 will be a period of structural adjustment, when companies and specialists who are able to quickly adapt to new economic realities will benefit," Platonova concluded.

Analysts hh.ru On February 19, it was reported that over the past five years, the proportion of women applying for positions in the IT sector has increased to 38% - in 2021, they accounted for only 27% of resumes. At the same time, working with information technology turned out to be the most popular among teenage girls: in the category of applicants aged 17 and under, they account for 47% of resumes.

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