Three out of four: who will be able to lead Iran after the death of Ali Khamenei

For the first time in 37 years, Iran is awaiting the election of a supreme head of state. Among the key contenders for this post are former head of the judiciary Sadek Larijani, respected Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, as well as the son of the murdered Ali Khamenei Mojtaba. In the West, they expect that the country will eventually be led by a descendant of the last Iranian Shah, Reza Pahlavi, who lives in the United States and is popular mainly among immigrants, analysts say. In the meantime, the Islamic Republic is led by an Interim Council, which includes current President Masoud Pezeshkian. About how the political system in Iran is organized and when it is possible to elect a new supreme leader — in the material of Izvestia.

How the supreme leader is elected in Iran

The death of Supreme Leader (Rahbar) Ali Khamenei has become a serious challenge for Iran. An active participant in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, an associate of the first Rahbar Ruhollah Khomeini, unlike many religious leaders, was a connoisseur of foreign classical literature, including Russian. Curiously, one of his favorite authors was Mikhail Sholokhov, whom he called the "true product" of the October Revolution.

— Of course, Khamenei is a man devoted to the ideas of the Islamic revolution and its religious component. He really devoted his whole life to defending Islam in the Shiite sense," Alexander Maryasov, an expert at the Valdai Club and former Russian ambassador to Iran, told Izvestia.

According to media reports, Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike on his residence on February 28. The Iranian government has declared 40 days of mourning and seven days of public holidays. On March 1, Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences to Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian. The Russian leader noted that Khamenei will be remembered as "an outstanding statesman who made a huge personal contribution to the development of friendly Russian-Iranian relations."

According to Alexander Maryasov, Ali Khamenei managed to build a layered management system that combines republican authorities (parliament, president) and theocratic structures such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). At the same time, in the Islamic Republic, Rahbar stands above all branches of government: he holds the post of commander-in-chief, determines domestic and foreign policy, and controls key security structures, in particular, the IRGC.

The last time a supreme leader was elected in Iran was almost 40 years ago. Now this will have to be repeated against the background of American-Israeli strikes, that is, in fact, under martial law. After Khamenei's assassination, power passed to the three-member Interim Council. It includes President Masoud Peseshkian, the head of the judiciary, Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and the influential Ayatollah Alireza Arafi. They will lead the country until the election of a new supreme leader by the Council of Experts, which includes 88 Islamic theologians. The last elections to this council were held in 2024, and conservative adherents of revolutionary principles won the majority in it.

Who can become the new rahbar

The experts interviewed by Izvestia agree: it is now almost impossible to predict when the Council of Experts will be able to choose a new senior leader. It is possible that he will be elected after the end of hostilities, so that he does not become a new military target of the United States and Israel, says Farhad Ibragimov, an expert on Iran and the Middle East, a lecturer at the Economics Faculty of the RUDN University.

— The new supreme leader, most likely, will not be the one who was appointed interim, that is, Alireza Arafi. Most likely, they will be completely different people," he said.

The New York Times newspaper previously wrote that Ali Khamenei ordered the succession of power in the event of his death. The key role, according to the publication, was to be played by the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the country, Ali Larijani, whose political weight has grown dramatically recently. One of the possible candidates may be his brother, the former head of the judicial system (2009-2019). Sadek Larijani, who is considered the most compromising figure, is noted by Farhad Ibragimov.

"He has a chance, because he and his brother have a very serious influence and support both among the security forces and among the ayatollahs," he said. — The figure of the supreme leader must be authoritative. He must understand perfectly both the religious and political subtleties of Iran. Iran is multinational, and in order to lead it, you need a very serious authority in the eyes of national minorities, representatives of the clergy, who will be ready to support their own and other elites.

Another likely contender is Mojtaba Khamenei— the second son of Ali Khamenei. However, he is not a member of the circle of high-ranking clergymen, which may probably be an obstacle to his appointment as rahbar.

— Mojtaba may formally become the supreme leader, but another factor comes into play here. It will resemble the transfer of power by inheritance, and this is already a monarchy. Therefore, I do not think that he will be able to become the supreme leader," says Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The possibility of Reza Pahlavi's return

The West expects that the son of the last Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, may become the new leader of the country. At the time of the 1979 revolution, Pahlavi was 19 years old and studying to become a military pilot in the United States. Since then, he has been living in the United States and runs the so—called National Council of Iran, an expatriate opposition organization. Earlier, US President Donald Trump stated that he has a "very good idea" about who will become the next leader of Iran. Experts believe that the son of the deposed Shah of Iran is the only option that the West is currently betting on in the event of the fall of the ayatollahs' power.

— From the point of view of the opposition, there is no politician who would suit all branches of the opposition movement. Because it is completely different — from a "pro-Western" republic to a monarchy. Therefore, it seems to me that Prince Reza Pahlavi, as a symbol of protest against the regime, can become the interim leader of the "new Iran" until the general elections are held, Vladimir Sazhin noted.

However, the son of the Iranian monarch is popular primarily among Iranian immigrants living in the West. His popularity began to rise sharply after the protests that broke out in Iran in late December and early January. However, his return to politics is hardly possible without a new revolution in Iran. However, according to Vladimir Sazhin, although the situation in the country is extremely difficult now and there is still a strong protest potential in the republic, there are no prerequisites for an immediate change of power now.

Immediately after the news of Ali Khamenei's death, tens of thousands of residents took to the streets to protest against the actions of the United States and Israel. Former Russian Ambassador to Iran Alexander Maryasov emphasizes that the assassination of Ali Khamenei was indeed a strong blow to the Islamic Republic, but it is unlikely to lead to regime change. The most likely scenario is the rallying of the population around the current authorities.