The Persian Spill: what could lead to a new conflict in the Middle East
The fighting after the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran may last several weeks or even months, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The duration of the current phase will depend on the extent of the involvement of regional players and the willingness of the parties to de-escalate. Tehran retaliated against 14 American bases in several Persian Gulf countries and blocked the Strait of Hormuz. For the global economy, this means the risk of an oil shock with prices rising to $300 per barrel. Amid the ongoing attacks, Russia and China have called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Before that, Vladimir Putin had already discussed the situation with members of the Russian Security Council. What Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are trying to achieve and whether Tehran will make concessions on the nuclear program is in the Izvestia article.
Results of the first day of the new conflict in the Middle East
Unlike the 12-day conflict last summer, the current operation against Iran is developing under the direct leadership of the United States. At the same time, Israel's role remains key. The joint strikes began on the morning of February 28 and included massive air and drone attacks on hundreds of targets in Iran, primarily in Tehran and in the west of the country.
In general, the tasks of the American-Israeli alliance this time are much more ambitious than just damaging the republic's nuclear facilities. "The United States armed Forces have launched major combat operations against Iran," President Donald Trump said in a video message posted on his social network during his stay at a golf club in Florida. According to him, the United States intends to "completely destroy" Iran's missile potential. "We will destroy their missiles and wipe their rocket industry off the face of the earth. I repeat, it will be completely destroyed. We will eliminate their fleet," he said, even allowing for the possibility of losses among the American military.
Public statements also call for a change of government in the Islamic Republic. Donald Trump offered Iranian forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), "immunity" in case of surrender or "imminent death," calling on Iranian citizens to "take power into their own hands." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a similar appeal, saying that it was "time for Iranians to throw off the yoke of tyranny."
Iran almost immediately responded with large-scale missile strikes, which affected not only Israel, but also a number of Persian Gulf states where American military facilities are located. The Iranian command announced attacks on 14 US bases in the Middle East. It was reported that explosions and the operation of air defense systems were heard in Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Social media has been flooded with footage even from the Emirati tourist "mecca" of Dubai. In particular, an eyewitness told Izvestia that the air defense system had "worked out over the city": the sounds were heard in several areas, including from the border with Iran. At the same time, according to him, the situation remained calm — there was no evacuation, people left the beaches without panic, and there was no increased police or military presence on the streets.
Riyadh strongly condemned the Iranian strikes on the territory of neighboring states, expressing full solidarity with them and warning of the grave consequences of further escalation. According to Bader al-Seif, a professor at Kuwait University, Iran's attacks on neighboring Persian Gulf countries, which tried to prevent escalation, only reinforce the narrative of the United States and Israel. Such actions by Tehran, in his opinion, may lead to a change in the position of regional players who previously sought to avoid direct involvement in the conflict.
Information about the effects of the strikes remains contradictory. Attempts are reported to eliminate a number of high-ranking Iranian military and politicians. According to Israeli broadcaster Kan, Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Peseshkian could be among the targets of the strikes. At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi assured that both were alive and safe. According to Reuters, Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and IRGC Commander Mohammad Pakpour could have died as a result of the strikes. "Almost all the officials are alive and safe. We may have lost one or two commanders," Araqchi said.
According to preliminary data, one of the high-ranking Iranian officials could have already been eliminated, Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, said in an interview with Izvestia. Later, the head of the Israel Defense Forces press service, Major General Efi Defrin, confirmed the liquidation of the heads of the Ministry of Defense and the IRGC, as well as the Secretary of the Defense Council, Ali Shamkhani. Moreover, Reuters, citing an Israeli official, reported that Khamenei was also dead. Israeli media claim that the video of the Ayatollah's body was shown to the country's top political leadership, the US military and Trump.
At the same time, earlier that day there had already been a wave of reports in the Israeli information field about the elimination of the Iranian leader, none of them were confirmed.
Iran is ready to negotiate a cessation of strikes
According to the prosecutor of the city of Minab, Israeli missiles also hit civilian infrastructure — one of the targets was the city's elementary school. As a result of the strike, at least 85 people were killed and more than 93 were injured. Among the victims are children who were in the building at the time of the attack. There may still be people under the rubble. According to the Iranian Red Crescent, at least 201 people were killed and 747 injured as a result of the attacks by the United States and Israel on the Islamic Republic.
Fires were recorded in Tehran and security measures were strengthened, including in areas associated with the country's top leadership. Amid unprecedented tensions, Araqchi said that Iran is still interested in de-escalation, but stressed that the strikes must be stopped before negotiations can begin. The Islamic Republic is still ready to discuss guarantees of the peaceful nature of its nuclear program, however, as the minister stressed, Tehran still does not intend to abandon uranium enrichment.
According to Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, even within the IRGC there are sober-minded forces that can make certain concessions to the United States in order to maintain their positions.
"Donald Trump's demands — the nullification of the nuclear program, the reduction of missile capabilities and the cessation of support for proxy forces in the Middle East — are extremely tough, and their full implementation would mean the actual surrender of Iran," the expert said in an interview with Izvestia.
He added that a compromise scenario with bargaining between the IRGC and the American side is possible, and when technocrats and reformers come to power, the likelihood of agreeing to US demands is even higher.
In Israel, official statements emphasize the need to eliminate the threat in the long term. The arguments include the development of Iran's nuclear program, accelerated production of ballistic missiles, and support for armed groups in the region. The current confrontation is indeed broader and more intense than last year's conflict, and carries risks of further expansion. Among the potential participants in the escalation are the Yemeni Houthis, pro—Iranian proxies who have already threatened to intervene. In addition, the Islamic Resistance of Iraq announced the resumption of operations against US military bases in the region.
Against this background, Netanyahu seeks to maintain a sense of constant war on several fronts, which is designed to reduce domestic political pressure and push aside questions of responsibility for the failure of the Hamas attack on October 7.
For Trump, the situation looks more complicated: a new war in the Middle East does not enjoy broad support from American society, especially among supporters of an isolationist course. At a minimum, this was not agreed upon by the US Congress, which makes the Republicans' position even more shaky ahead of the November elections. Analysts attribute the decision to launch the operation, despite parallel negotiations with Iran, to the unwillingness to keep large forces in the region for a long time without active action and irritation due to the lack of compromises on the part of Tehran.
It is noteworthy that just a few days before the start of the operation, Washington and Tehran held another round of indirect talks in Geneva — on February 26, the parties hoped to reduce the risk of a new military escalation in the Middle East. As Araqchi stated, these were "some of the most serious and longest negotiations", as a result of which progress was achieved. The parties even agreed to hold technical consultations in Vienna from March 2. Against this background, the current strikes show that Washington could use the diplomatic track more to gain time and distract attention than to actually find a compromise.
The actions of the United States and Israel, as on the eve of the 12-day conflict, demonstrate their failure as negotiators, Georgy Asatryan, deputy director of the Center for the Institute of Military Economics and Strategy at the Higher School of Economics, and an expert on the INF Treaty, told Izvestia. Although the US-Iranian contacts had not previously looked hopeless and some progress had been recorded.
How long will the fighting last
Orientalist Kirill Semenov notes that it is extremely difficult to estimate the duration of the current phase of the conflict due to the ambiguity of the ultimate goals of the United States and Israel. According to him, the Jewish state, together with the Americans, primarily seeks to weaken the Islamic Republic and destroy the missile infrastructure, but it is unclear whether they set themselves the task of eliminating the country's leadership or are limited to destroying factories and weapons deployment facilities.
— Resources for the operation are limited, and with the current grouping of forces, its duration may be two to three weeks. For longer—term actions, it would be necessary to deploy additional forces in the region, including using the bases of Persian Gulf allies or aircraft carriers," the expert told Izvestia.
Orientalist Leonid Tsukanov notes that the duration of the active phase of the confrontation will depend on many factors: stocks of shock weapons, the intensity of attacks and the willingness of the parties to further escalation. From the Iranian point of view, the fighting will continue until the United States and Israel reduce pressure, and the authorities of the Islamic Republic respond to the American-Israeli attack on the school in Minaba, including children.
"For Washington and Israel, the reason for ending the fighting in an ideal scenario for Westerners should be a fracture of Iran from within, for example, due to mass unrest or paralysis of governance," the expert told Izvestia.
However, in practice, damage to a country's missile and nuclear capabilities may be sufficient: the destruction of surface–to-surface launchers and damage to key nuclear infrastructure facilities, including Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. One of Israel's goals remains to get as close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as possible — if assassination is impossible, we will also meet the goals of intensifying rivalry within his entourage.
— Collisions can last from several days to several months. At the same time, the prospect of current events escalating into a protracted war with land actions — similar, for example, to the intervention in Iraq — has not yet been traced, Leonid Tsukanov believes.
Taking too long to prepare has made it difficult to carry out a synchronized wave of pinpoint strikes, as it was in 2025. Iran is acting faster this time: it is launching missiles, activating proxy forces, missiles have even been launched from Iraq, and the Yemeni Houthis promise to resume attacks on ships in the Red Sea, Roman Yanushevsky notes. The expert believes that the conflict will be long-lasting: its beginning is obvious, but the end is not yet in sight, and the turning point may come only in a few days.
Georgy Asatryan also believes that clarity will appear in the next two days: the last conflict showed the limited resources of the anti-Iranian coalition and Tehran's ability to launch a tangible counterattack. Although the current round, in his opinion, is characterized by greater determination on the part of the parties and has a pronounced regional character.
The consequences of the escalation in the Middle East
The escalation of the conflict has already affected not only the countries of the Middle East, but the rest of the world, at least in the tourism sector. A number of states have closed their airspace or imposed flight restrictions, which has led to delays and cancellations of hundreds of flights, including those with Russian citizens. Currently, Russian airlines operate flights on bypass routes in coordination with the Federal Air Transport Agency. Flights to Israel and Iran have been suspended, and tour operators are adjusting their programs and offering tourists alternative destinations or postponing trips. According to the ATOR press service, tens of thousands of Russian tourists may currently be in the restricted area. According to estimates by tour operators, there are about 50,000 Russians in the UAE, both organized groups and independent travelers; about 1,000 people in Qatar, about 700 tourists in Oman, and about 300 in Bahrain.
Far-reaching consequences await the global economy. The IRGC Navy has announced a ban on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz and has effectively closed it, Reuters reports. According to the International Energy Agency, about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day pass through this strategic channel — almost 20% of the world's oil trade and more than 30% of liquefied natural gas supplies.
The idea of restricting shipping was discussed in Tehran after last year's strikes on Iranian facilities, and the Parliament of the Islamic Republic voted to close the strait. The implementation of such a scenario can cause an instant oil shock: prices can soar to $250-300 per barrel, which is fraught with global inflation and the collapse of financial markets.
Key international actors began to look for ways to resolve the impending crisis. The Russian Federation declared its readiness to promote a diplomatic settlement and intend to demand an immediate end to the escalation. Moscow and Beijing have called an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council on the night of February 29. Russian President Vladimir Putin previously held a videoconference with permanent members of the country's Security Council, where the situation around Iran was discussed. In particular, two facilities in the city of Bushehr, where the nuclear power plant of the same name is being built with the participation of Rosatom, were hit by missiles.
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