Deceptive heat and dangerous flooding: weather forecast in Russia for March
Despite the calendar beginning of spring, a sharp warming in the first days of March should not be expected. The weather will be determined by Atlantic cyclones, which will bring a series of thaws and short-term cold spells. According to forecasters, the season will be slow, including due to significant snow reserves: abnormal frosts in the north and record snowfalls in the central regions have formed a powerful snow cover, sometimes reaching a meter. As a result, the beginning of spring will be accompanied by unstable weather, and active melting may increase the risk of spring flooding. For more information about the weather in March, see the Izvestia article.
When will the climatic spring come?
Before talking about the timing of spring, it is important to clarify what meteorologists mean by this very concept. If the calendar spring begins on March 1, and the astronomical spring begins on the day of the vernal equinox, March 20-21, then the onset of a climatic or meteorological spring is indicated when the average daily air temperature passes through the 0 degree mark in the upward direction.
At the same time, we are not talking about a one-day thaw, but about a stable "plus". It is during this period that snow and ice melt on reservoirs. The nature of precipitation is also changing. All this is gradually shaping the spring type of weather. For Moscow and Central Russia, this milestone most often falls on the second half of March.
But even a series of warm days does not guarantee the rapid onset of spring. High snow cover absorbs heat, slowing down the warming of the soil and air. And the surface that has thawed during the day often freezes at night, forming ice. As a result, stable spring signs appear only closer to the third decade of the month, and the beginning of March is perceived as a continuation of winter.
In 2026, according to experts, it is not worth counting on an early and rapid arrival of heat. Significant snow reserves formed over the winter will slow down the steady temperature transition through the zero mark. In particular, Mikhail Leus, a leading specialist at the Phobos weather center, notes that the snow will probably completely disappear only by the second half of April.
Forecast for March for Moscow and the regions from the Hydrometeorological Center
According to the forecast of the Hydrometeorological Center, March 2026 in most of the European territory of Russia will be close to the climatic norm. In some regions — the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Komi Republic and the north of the Perm Territory — a deviation of one degree below the norm is possible, and in some regions of Central Russia and the south of the European part — one degree above the norm.
The warmest background in early spring is expected in the Pskov, Smolensk, Kaluga, Bryansk, Orel, Kursk and Belgorod regions, as well as in the Crimea. In Moscow and the central part of Russia, the average monthly air temperature is forecast to be within -1... 0°C, which corresponds to the long-term average values.
The picture is also heterogeneous in the Asian territory of the country. In most parts of the Urals and the south of Western Siberia (in the Omsk, Tomsk, and Kemerovo regions), the thermometer will drop one degree below normal. At the same time, a slight temperature increase is expected in the north of the Khabarovsk Territory and in the Magadan region.
In general, March is warmer than February by about four to five degrees, which fully corresponds to the temperature indicators of the beginning of spring, published on the website of the Hydrometeorological Center. The monthly precipitation in the first month of spring is expected to be slightly less than normal.
When the snow melts and it gets warm — what experts say
Thus, despite the abundance of snow, March is expected to be quite warm. However, short-term cold spells are possible at the beginning of the month, Alexander Shuvalov, head of the Meteo forecasting center, told Izvestia. According to him, a decrease in temperature for several days is possible in Moscow.
— Short cold spells are expected in March. In Moscow, they are likely on March 4-6. Before that, a positive temperature will be set during the daytime — from +1 to +4 degrees. After a short-term decrease for two or three days, a new wave of warming will come, and the thermometer will again show about +2... -4 degrees — approximately by March 6-8, the forecaster predicted.
In turn, Anatoly Tsygankov, head of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service's crisis Management Department, warned of the insidiousness of early spring. He noted that in early March, the weather pattern in Central Russia is being shaped by the Atlantic cyclone, which brings milder and wetter air.
The specialist also added that it is too early to count on a stable spring regime due to the high snow cover, which may become the main brake for spring.
— There is a lot of snow. And not only in the capital region, but also in the Volga region — from Kursk, Tula and Ryazan to Kazan — the height of the cover reaches 80-95 cm, in some places almost a meter, " the forecaster told Izvestia.
Should we be afraid of high water in March
Even at the end of winter, experts emphasized that the main problem of spring would not be cold, but excess water. Rapid melting of the snow cover in combination with rains can cause a noticeable rise in river levels and lead to flooding of low-lying areas.
According to forecasters, by April 5, intense melting will be observed in about 60% of cases, by April 10 — in 40%. According to forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Service, spring floods should be expected in 16 regions of the Central, Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts.
The most significant water rise is predicted in the Murmansk, Smolensk, Orel, Tula, Kaluga, Moscow, Ryazan, Vladimir and Samara regions, as well as in the Kemerovo, Novosibirsk and Tomsk regions, in the Kamchatka, Krasnoyarsk and Altai Territories and in the Republic of Crimea.
In cities, including Moscow, due to the record height of the snow cover, an abundance of meltwater is expected in the streets and courtyards. Meteorologists warn that morning ice, deep puddles and slush may become a characteristic feature of March in many regions of the country.
How will the weather in March affect your well-being?
March is traditionally considered one of the most difficult months for weather-sensitive people. It's not so much about the temperatures themselves as about their sharp fluctuations. The body reacts especially hard when a short-term frost suddenly returns after a thaw.
Such "temperature swings" can provoke pressure surges in people with hypertension and hypotension, migraine attacks, and exacerbation of diseases of the joints and respiratory system. Even healthy people may experience increased fatigue, irritability, and decreased performance.
In addition, the frequent change of thaws and frosts increases the risk of ice formation, which increases the likelihood of injury on the streets and requires additional caution.
Doctors advise during this period to observe a stable sleep and rest regime, avoid excessive exertion, maintain an adequate drinking regime, strictly follow the prescribed therapy and dress according to the weather.
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