The expert estimated the pressure on the banking market in 2025

Last year, the banking market was under serious pressure on marginality from two sides, said Alexey Voylukov, Professor of Digital Finance Practice at RANEPA.

"The first is the deterioration in the quality of borrowers both in retail and in the corporate sector, and against the background of continued high interest rates, which means an increased interest burden. The second is a decrease in demand in many segments, including lending, where the regulatory factor also had a restraining effect," the expert noted.

According to him, banks have predictably made less profit than a year earlier, and the forecast for the current year is even more conservative. The number of unprofitable banks in the market has increased, while profitability in the sector as a whole and in the group of the largest banks has decreased. Against this background, banks that have "not sunk" in terms of profits and margins are rather an exception, Voylukov stressed.

In this regard, he noted that, for example, VTB Group's 2025 results were better than analysts' expectations. "Net profit is slightly higher than forecast, business dynamics in the areas are within the plan: a decrease in retail, growth in the corporate sector, but taking into account the increase in the share of repairs; the share of commissions and other non—interest income in the overall structure is higher," the expert specified.

He noted that the quality of the loan portfolio is causing some concern. "Even after the record deductions last year. The net interest margin decreased last year to 1.4% (from 1.7% in 2024). And there are no prerequisites for significant improvement here yet. However, these are general market trends, and these challenges must be addressed," Voilukov said.

He added that VTB maintains a stable market position in all areas, but is facing pressure from stressful assets, and this will require a lot of attention this year.

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