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- Apartment spread: the price of new buildings has increased since the beginning of the year in all major cities
Apartment spread: the price of new buildings has increased since the beginning of the year in all major cities
The cost per square meter in the largest cities of Russia in early 2026 showed widespread growth, which is explained by the tightening of conditions under preferential programs, Izvestia found out. Moscow became the leader in dynamics, where the average price tag immediately increased by 6.2% compared to December last year. A similar trend was recorded in Kazan, St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg. The most aggressive price increases were noted in the business and premium segments. Experts predict that by the end of the year, housing may increase in price by another 10-15%, and in some locations the increase may reach a critical 30%. When the market correction begins, see the Izvestia article.
How house prices have increased
New buildings in megacities opened the year with a price rally: by the end of January, a steady increase in the cost of housing was recorded in the primary market of cities with millions. According to analysts at NDV Supermarket of Real Estate and developer Baza Development, the upward trend in prices for the "square" has covered all the largest cities in Russia, without exception, consolidating the trend towards higher prices after the December peak.
Moscow has become the leader in terms of housing appreciation, with an average monthly price increase of 6.2%. Notable dynamics were also recorded in Kazan (+2.9%), Perm (+2.3%), St. Petersburg (+2.2%) and Yekaterinburg (+2%).
In the capital, the high-budget sector showed the most aggressive growth: the premium class immediately added 13% over the month, coming close to 1.1 million rubles per square meter. In the business segment, the cost of a meter increased by 2.6% (to 583.1 thousand rubles), while the comfort class increased in price by 2.3%, reaching the level of 411.6 thousand rubles. Luxury real estate showed the most restrained dynamics: an increase of 1.7% was recorded here, and the average price per square meter was 2.6 million.
In St. Petersburg, the weighted average price of a "square" for actually concluded transactions in January reached 338 thousand rubles. Compared to December, the cost of sold housing in the Northern Capital increased by 7%, Dmitry Falkin, Vice President for Sales and Service at RBI Group, told Izvestia.
"Such noticeable fluctuations are most often explained not by a one—time rise in the price of the market, but rather by a statistical effect," the expert explained. — In January, the volume of transactions is traditionally lower, the average figures are more dependent on details such as changes in the structure of the exhibition, the launch of new single projects with a higher price. The factor of high demand also played a role amid expectations of changes in the family mortgage program. Many of the January deals are from December bookings.
By the end of the year, the top five cities in terms of real estate prices were key metropolitan areas of the country. The absolute record was demonstrated by Moscow, where the cost per square meter soared by 34.7%, reaching 828.2 thousand rubles. In St. Petersburg, the increase was 24.5% (up to 357.8 thousand), in Kazan — 22.8% (up to 280.6 thousand). Yekaterinburg and Nizhny Novgorod rounded out the top 5, where Kvadrat added 15.4% (180.9 thousand) and 14.5% (215.1 thousand). accordingly.
In terms of segments, the main price impact fell on high-budget lots, Elena Chegodaeva, head of the analytics and consulting department at NDV Real Estate Supermarket, told Izvestia.
"The largest increase in the average cost of supply in cities with millions was recorded in the business class, where prices jumped by 10.3% over the year, and in the premium segment by 13%," the expert said. — In the comfort class, the average bill increased by a more restrained 3.3%, while luxury real estate showed a symbolic decrease of 1.2%.
Alexander Ivanov, a leading analyst at the federal company Etagi, added that since the beginning of the year, the average cost per square meter in the primary housing market in Russia's largest cities has increased by 1.3%. The largest increases are in Chelyabinsk, Volgograd, Yekaterinburg, St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Krasnodar, Ufa, Krasnoyarsk, Moscow and Voronezh.
The director of the Vseostroike portal also confirmed the 2-5% price increase.Russian Federation" by Svetlana Opryshko.
"This is due to the continued strong demand for new buildings against the background of stricter conditions for issuing family mortgages," she said. — Developers, seeing the hype, raised prices. In some cases, the supply structure has also changed: the most liquid and affordable lots have left the market, which automatically raised the average price per square meter.
Should we expect a price spike
January of this year ended the wave of hyped demand that began in the fall of 2025 amid expectations of changes in family mortgage conditions from February, recalled Mark Zavodovsky, co-founder of Baza Development.
"The market is showing steady price growth in all segments, but the pace of change varies depending on the city and housing class," he said. — While the comfort class is growing at a moderate pace, the premium and elite segments in a number of cities show higher increases in a short period.
Against the background of lower deposit rates, the investment attractiveness of high-budget real estate is only growing, while the elite segment demonstrates the greatest resistance to market fluctuations due to a narrow circle of buyers with high solvency.
There are no prospects for reducing the price per square meter in new buildings in the medium term, experts stated.
"Moreover, new discussions on changes to family mortgages regarding the introduction of differentiated rates may lead to a new wave of demand and another, more noticeable price increase,— Alexander Ivanov emphasized.
Prices are moving up gradually: all the factors that have been in effect over the past year remain influential — these are high construction costs, expensive project loans for developers, and the need to finance instruments for sale — rates, discounts, installments, — said Natalia Shatalina, CEO of the aggregator of new buildings RedCat.
"We do not expect a reduction in prices, most likely, a gradual increase, which may accelerate in the II—III quarters, provided the Central Bank actively reduces the key rate," she said.
No sharp jumps in value are expected yet, according to Daria Tsygankova, head of the VSN Group Analytics and Consulting Department. This is due to a decrease in consumer demand after changes were made to the family mortgage program.
In the future, local discounts and promotions from developers will remain a marketing tool to stimulate sales, but they will not be able to have a strong impact, says Vladimir Kolesnikov, director of the residential real estate sales unit at A101 Group.
— The forecast for the year is steady growth in the range of 10-12%, — he believes. — In the most liquid locations and projects, the figures may be higher, especially if the key rate reduction goes faster than expected or new targeted measures to support demand follow.
In 2026, apartments may rise in price by another 25-30% against the background of a reduction in supply — launches of new projects collapsed by 12% by the end of 2025, Svetlana Opryshko added.
"As soon as rates creep down, and the Central Bank continues to gradually reduce the key rate, an army of buyers will rush into the market," the expert noted. — Empty "storefronts" will lead to higher prices.
Additionally, the information background around the tightening of preferential programs is also spurring the market, experts added. This includes talks about a possible increase in mortgage rates for families with one child.
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