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Baku news to all: Russia has increased the supply of petroleum products to Central Asia
The growth in the supply of petroleum products to the countries of the Central Asian and Afghan regions by the end of 2025 amounted to 15.58%. The predominance of Russian products was most noticeable in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In general, the Russian Federation increased exports by 1 million tons, while more than half of the increase was accounted for by the supply of liquefied petroleum gas — about 530 thousand tons. According to experts, in January 2026, the supply of petroleum products to the countries of the region increased by 44% compared to December 2025. Whether this trend will continue throughout the year and how sensitive the increase in exports is for the domestic fuel market is discussed in the Izvestia article.
Export of petroleum products to the Central Asian region
The growth of exports of petroleum products to the countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan reached 15.5% by the end of 2025: the volume of supplies increased from 6.294 million to 7.275 million tons. Such data is provided in the presentation of Energo Star Trading, which was reviewed by Izvestia. The predominance of Russian petroleum products is most noticeable in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, said Parviz Mammadov, a representative of the trading company in Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Black Sea region, the author of the study. In general, the Russian Federation increased its exports by 1 million tons due to supplies to neighboring regions. More than half of the total increase was accounted for by the export of liquefied petroleum gas — about 530 thousand tons.
"The steady trend towards an increase in the supply of Russian petroleum products to Uzbekistan continues. The Russian Federation has included the republic in the list of countries that are not subject to the ban on the export of gasoline shipments. An intergovernmental agreement has been signed between the two countries, which effectively puts Uzbekistan on an equal footing with the EAEU member states. Due to limited supplies of Russian—made gasoline, Uzbekistan has sharply increased purchases of naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas, which have filled the shortage of gasoline imports from the Russian Federation," Parviz Mammadov notes in his work.
According to Energo Star Trading, imports of diesel fuel to Uzbekistan have increased significantly amid production cuts at the Uzbekistan GTL plant. Kazakhstan increased purchases of Russian petroleum products by about 200 thousand tons. Gasoline imports from Russia to Afghanistan increased by 20% last year, according to a company study. At the same time, restrictions on Russian gasoline supplies to Afghanistan since September, combined with rising prices for motor fuel in the region, have opened a window of opportunity for Belarusian oil products to enter this market.
"As a result, transit shipments of Belarusian petroleum products to Afghanistan in 2025 amounted to about 400 thousand tons, and most of this volume is accounted for by gasoline due to the lack of supplies from the Russian Federation," the company's materials say.
Izvestia sent inquiries to the Ministry of Energy, as well as to major Russian oil and gas companies.
How much fuel does Russia produce and export
Official data on the volume of primary oil refining in the Russian Federation by the end of 2025 have not yet been published. In December, the head of the Russian Ministry of Energy, Sergey Tsivilev, said that oil refineries are expected to reach the level of 2024. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, at that time the volume of primary oil refining amounted to 266.5 million tons, gasoline production - 41.1 million tons, diesel fuel — 81.6 million tons.
The production of liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) in Russia for the first ten months of 2025 remained at the level of last year. In January – October, 12.7 million tons of LPG were produced. Of these, 9.9 million tons were used domestically, and 2.8 million tons were exported, such data was transmitted in December last year by TASS with reference to Sibur materials.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, fuel production in 2025 is likely to decrease compared to 2024.
— Unscheduled repairs could not but have an impact on the total volume of fuel production. It was the crisis of the domestic market that led to the ban on gasoline exports in the country," the source said, noting that gasoline consumption in the country is 37-38 million tons per year, and diesel consumption is 43-44 million tons.
As Izvestia wrote, in 2025, stock prices for fuel repeatedly updated historical highs. In late summer and early September, gasoline shortages were observed in several regions of the country, which led to the forced suspension of some independent gas stations.
The government banned the export of gasoline and diesel fuel to all market participants in September 2025. The authorities sought to prevent shortages and price increases in the domestic market. In October, the export of diesel fuel was allowed for refineries. In December, the Russian government extended the temporary ban until February 28. However, at the end of January 2026, the ban on gasoline exports for manufacturers was lifted.
According to Alexander Novak, the current situation in the Russian fuel market is stable, and in order to avoid overstocking of refining capacities, the ban on gasoline exports for oil companies has been lifted.
What will be the fuel exports in 2026?
Currently, supplies of Russian-made petroleum products to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia are carried out within the framework of the EAEU indicative balances formed annually, Tamara Safonova, General Director of Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, LLC, recalled.
In addition, according to her, Russian petroleum products are supplied to Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan on the basis of intergovernmental agreements.
— By the end of 2025, the volume of supplies of Russian petroleum products by rail to the countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan increased by 1 million tons. This is due to the growing demand and the reorientation of cargo flows. In the future, a further increase in energy and motor fuel consumption in the region is expected against the background of population growth and expansion of production capacities," she said in an interview with Izvestia.
According to Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, in January 2026 there was already a sharp surge in the supply of petroleum products from Russia to Central Asia and Afghanistan — by 44% compared to December, to 0.88 million tons.
— The situation is explained by a combination of market, seasonal and logistical factors. The accumulation of inventories at Russian refineries, as well as the reduction in tariffs for the transit of petroleum products through Kazakhstan from January 1, played a role. In general, by the end of the year, supplies are likely to stabilize, and growth will be moderate, at least compared to the jump in 2024-2025, the expert noted.
According to him, further export growth is being held back by infrastructural constraints. Thus, the Saryagash border crossing on the border of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains the bottleneck for the supply of Russian petroleum products to Uzbekistan, through which 100% of exports in this direction pass. Already, it is operating at a load exceeding its design capacity, which makes it difficult to increase supply volumes.
To increase supplies to Afghanistan, it is necessary to expand the capacity of the Bolashak border crossing on the Kazakh-Turkmen border, Valery Andrianov believes.
Assessing the sensitivity of export supplies for the domestic market, the expert recalled that Russia mainly supplies diesel fuel to the countries of Central Asia, for which there is a surplus in the domestic market.
— Historically, the country has produced about twice as much diesel as Russian consumers need, so a significant part of it is exported. In general, there are no problems with the supply of this fuel: it is actively being purchased, in particular, by Turkey, Brazil, African countries, as well as India and China, which, despite their own production surplus, are interested in purchasing fuel at a discount for the domestic market," he said.
Against this background, Central Asia remains an important, but far from the only export destination, the Izvestia source added.
At the same time, Valery Andrianov did not rule out that increased sanctions pressure on Russia could complicate sea shipments. "In this situation, overland routes through Central Asia become even more important for us, as they are subject to lower political risks," he stressed.
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