Cream of society: excess milk has accumulated in warehouses in Russia
In Russia, a record oversupply of raw milk was recorded — by the end of 2025, 73.5 thousand tons of unsold product accumulated in the warehouses of farmers, which is 9% more than a year earlier. This was caused by the increase in imports of dairy products from Belarus and the fact that domestic demand for these goods from Russian consumers is not increasing. The Ministry of Agriculture noted that the industry has consistently shown positive dynamics. Despite the oversupply, retail milk prices increased by 19% over the year, to 96 rubles per liter, according to Rosstat data. About the reasons for the rise in price of the product with its excess — in the material of Izvestia.
Overabundance of milk
Russian producers of raw milk are faced with overstocking of warehouses. This information was confirmed to Izvestia by Anatoly Losev, General Director of the Molvest Group of Companies, Svetlana Trofimova, Deputy General Director for Animal Husbandry at Agropromkomplektatsiya Group, as well as a top manager of a large agricultural holding. Overproduction is also recorded by small farms, said Andrey Anikiev, a member of the People's Farmer Association, chairman of the Union of Peasant Farms and Consumer Cooperatives of the Sverdlovsk Region.
By the end of 2025, the remaining unrealized milk in agricultural enterprises reached 73.5 thousand tons — in terms of liter bags, this is about 73.5 million units, which is 9% more than a year earlier, according to Rosstat data. According to official information, the production of raw milk in 2025 amounted to 34.3 million tons against 34.1 million tons in 2024‑
The volume of milk production today exceeds the possibilities of its processing against the background of declining demand, Anatoly Losev noted. Even large manufacturers are forced to merge some of their products, Andrey Anikiev added. At the same time, farms with low yields are of little interest to processors, which forces them to lower prices and sometimes close farms.
So, in the Sverdlovsk region, the purchase price of milk has fallen by a quarter since October 2025 and reached 20 rubles per liter by early February 2026, Andrei Anikiev said. A similar drop in prices was recorded in other regions — the Altai Territory, Nizhny Novgorod Region, Udmurtia and Krasnodar Territory, added a top manager of a large agricultural holding.
Against the background of market consolidation by large players, the number of small farms is gradually decreasing, Svetlana Trofimova stated. According to her, large agricultural holdings can produce milk at a lower cost and have the resources to build modern, highly efficient farms.
— Over the past five years, the dairy industry in our country has consistently shown positive dynamics. At the same time, significant potential for further growth remains. By 2030, the task is to increase production to 38.5 million tons, which will allow achieving self—sufficiency in milk and dairy products at the level of 90%, which corresponds to the threshold value of the Food Security Doctrine, a representative of the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia.
According to him, the production of powdered milk and cream increased (an increase of 7.3% year-on-year), drinking milk (+3.1%), butter (+2.1%), cheese (+1.7%).
By the end of 2025, the volume of dairy exports increased by 14%, said a representative of the ministry, without disclosing absolute data. By 2030, shipments abroad should increase to at least 1.2 million tons, he noted.
Izvestia also sent inquiries to the largest milk producers and processors.
What affects prices
The excess of milk on the market is associated with a decrease in demand, according to a representative of Milk Logic (formerly Danone Russia). Natural sales of dairy products stagnated in 2025, with year-on-year growth of 0.4%, according to Nielsen data. This is due to an increase in the cost of products against the background of an increase in the cost of dairy production and a slowdown in the growth of real incomes of the population, said a company representative. The saturation of the Russian market is due to the limited export opportunities for dairy products against the background of the strengthening of the ruble and the decline in world prices over the past year, explained Svetlana Trofimova.
The average retail cost of pasteurized milk in 2025 was 96 rubles per liter, which is 19% more than a year earlier, according to Rosstat data. Over the same period, butter rose in price by 23%, to 1.2 thousand rubles per 1 kg, sour cream — by 18%, to 358 rubles per 1 kg, fermented dairy products — to 123 rubles per 1 kg (an increase of 16%), according to statistics.
The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has sent pricing requests to 11 major retailers for socially important goods, including milk and butter, its representative told Izvestia. According to him, the service is currently studying information received from retail chains, and if signs of a violation are detected, the agency will take action.
How did the import from Belarus affect
With rising costs, producers are forced to sell milk at low prices, because "a cow, like a blast furnace, never stops," a top manager of a large agricultural holding figuratively explained. According to him, this lowers purchase prices: processors buy raw materials cheaper, but put the increased cost into the final product. As a result, Russian dairy products are more expensive than imports from Belarus. At the same time, the savings model of consumer behavior forces them to choose a cheaper product, the source noted.
Profitability of production on farms decreased significantly in early 2026, said Svetlana Trofimova from Agropromkomplektatsiya. According to her, this is due to a 20% drop in the price of raw milk on average. At the same time, production costs remain at the same level at best, but they are expected to increase further during the year, she said.
The increase in imports of dairy products from Belarus puts additional pressure on the domestic market, said Anatoly Losev from Molvest. According to him, the country is receiving supplies of Belarusian butter and cheese, which could not be sold last year. Companies sell goods cheaper due to the peculiarities of dairy state regulation in the neighboring republic and the deadlines for implementation that are close to critical, he said.
The share of the Brest brand‑Litovsk" from the manufacturer "Savushkin product" in sales of cheese in January–September 2025 reached 6.8% against 5.4% for the same period in 2024, and butter — 6.7% against 6.2%, the industry portal Shopper's cited data from analysts at NTech. In both categories, the brand took the first place. At the same time, the representative of the Logic of Milk company believes that imports from Belarus are a significant factor, but they are inferior in influence to the current macroeconomic conditions.
Russian and Belarusian producers are jointly working on approaches to trade dairy products on the world market, said a representative of the Ministry of Agriculture. According to him, the countries annually coordinate the volume of mutual supplies, taking into account production and consumption.
Prices for dairy products may decrease closer to summer, Anatoly Losev believes. By the end of 2025, the industry was showing signs of recovery, said Artem Belov, CEO of Soyuzmolok. This was facilitated by the growth of the HoReCa segment (hospitality and catering), which continues to be an important driver of demand, he added.
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