The fact of retaliation: Russia will respond to the 20th package of EU sanctions
The European Union has lost €1.5–2 trillion from anti-Russian restrictions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia. According to him, taking into account Brussels' plans to abandon Russian gas, the volume of trade between the EU and Russia will tend to zero. At the same time, Moscow will respond to the adoption of the 20th package of sanctions, Grushko stressed. Against this background, the number of dissatisfied with the proposed measures is growing in the European camp: Greece and Malta, as well as Hungary and Spain, have expressed their claims. According to a European source in Izvestia, Cyprus is trying to get the EU countries to agree to the introduction of the 20th package by February 24. However, experts believe that the consultation process may be delayed, and some measures in the EU will be abandoned.
Damage to the EU from anti-Russian sanctions
The preparation of the 20th list of EU anti-Russian sanctions has entered the final stage. The countries of the association expect to agree on restrictions by February 24. At the same time, Russia will respond to the adoption of the new package, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia.
— We will see what we can and will do. For us, the main thing is not the mirror image, but the credibility of our sanctions. Unlike our colleagues from the European Union, we do not have the practice of shooting at our own feet," the diplomat replied to a question from Izvestia about Moscow's reaction to possible European restrictions.
According to him, the losses of the European Union from anti-Russian sanctions already amount to trillions of euros.
— If we look at the amount of direct losses, as well as the lost profits, then, in my opinion, the closest to a realistic figure is from € 1.5 trillion to € 2 trillion, — said the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation.
Back in 2013, the volume of trade between Russia and the European Union was about $420 billion, this year it may decrease to $20 billion. And given that the EU intends to completely ban fuel supplies from Russia, including gas, this figure will tend to zero, Grushko concluded.
The Russian authorities have repeatedly stressed that the initiator of the severance of ties was the European Union itself. As a response, Moscow is blacklisting European politicians and officials who are most actively promoting sanctions. In addition, back in August 2014, Russia imposed a food embargo in response to EU and US sanctions, and these restrictions continue to be extended. In general, the Russian Federation is more focused on import substitution and the development of its own economy than on coming up with prohibitive measures against other countries.
At the same time, the voluntary refusal to cooperate with Russia affects the competitiveness of the EU economy. As previously noted in the Russian Foreign Ministry, the cost of gas and electricity in Europe is about three to four times higher than the price on the American market. This is largely the reason why the deindustrialization of the European economy is taking place.
The consequences of severing ties with Russia are also reflected in the pan-European GDP: in 2024, it grew by only 1%, and in 2025 — by 1.6%. For comparison, in 2021, when Russian energy resources were freely supplied to the European market, the EU economy increased by more than 5%.
The controversy surrounding the adoption of the 20th package of restrictions
The negative economic effect of the sanctions has led to the growing number of their opponents. Hungary, which traditionally opposes, according to media reports, was joined by Greece and Malta. They fear that the proposed ban on oil transportation services from Russia will affect the European shipping industry and energy prices. Italy and Spain also have claims.: They are unhappy with the restrictions against the ports of Georgia and Indonesia, as well as the bank in Cuba.
Meanwhile, discussions continue in Brussels on the composition of a new package of sanctions. At a meeting on February 18, the EU ambassadors could not reach an agreement on this issue. According to the Izvestia source, a new meeting of representatives is scheduled for February 20. As early as February 23, the heads of foreign ministries will gather in Brussels, and a meeting of the EU Council on general issues is scheduled for the next day.
— Negotiations are underway on the basis of a new version of the text published on February 17. The adoption procedure depends on how the discussions will take place on February 20," the source stressed.
Cyprus, as the president of the EU Council, is seeking to reach agreement among all the countries of the union on the introduction of the 20th package of anti-Russian sanctions this half-year, another knowledgeable European source told Izvestia.
Restrictions are approved through the common foreign and security policy, where decisions are made by consensus. Theoretically, one vote against is enough to stop everything, Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, emphasized in an interview with Izvestia.
"As the economic situation becomes more complicated and restrictions spread to new areas, the list of states that are not satisfied with something and, for example, would like to make exceptions for themselves may grow," the expert noted.
Against this background, the conflict between Hungary and Slovakia and Ukraine is developing, which has stopped pumping Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline. Bratislava and Budapest have stopped the supply of diesel fuel to Kiev and are threatening to cut off electricity supply. As stated by the prime ministers of both countries, Ukraine's actions are an instrument of pressure on Hungary to force it to support Kiev's application to the EU.
Bratislava and Budapest may block another package of anti-Russian sanctions to put pressure on Brussels. Slovakia had previously postponed the approval of the 18th and 19th packages of sanctions, having negotiated energy security guarantees for itself. Hungary has repeatedly used the same tactic, which has succeeded in blacklisting sports teams from the Russian Federation, as well as the Paks-2 NPP project.
What the EU plans to include in the 20th package of sanctions
The key point of the new round of EU sanctions is likely to be a ban on the provision of services for the transportation of Russian oil. Recall that the EU, like the rest of the G7 members, adheres to the so—called price ceiling, a level above which companies from the countries of this association cannot provide oil trading services from the Russian Federation (insurance, technical assistance, transportation). The current price ceiling is $44.1 per barrel. The EU is also trying to hit gas trade — restrictions are planned on the provision of services for tankers and icebreakers involved in the transportation of LNG from Russia.
In response, the Russian Federation banned the export of oil and petroleum products under contracts whose terms follow the price ceiling until June 30, 2026. Russia has created its own infrastructure for oil transportation by sea, so Western restrictions have not had a significant effect on export volumes. Moscow is also actively redirecting raw materials to Asian countries, in particular India and China.
The second important section of the sanctions package remains trade restrictions. According to media reports, the European Commission is proposing a ban on the import of Russian metals, chemicals, ammonia and other critical raw materials worth more than €570 million. According to Euroactiv, Finland and Sweden called on the EC to stop exporting luxury goods to Russia, maintenance of Russian oil tankers and reduce quotas on fertilizer imports.
The EU does not forget about the replenishment of blacklists — new individuals and legal entities, as well as banks, are expected to be added to them. Ports and companies from third countries may be affected. According to the Financial Times, the EC plans to ban all Russian cryptocurrency platforms and stop transactions related to the Russian Federation.
However, the final set of measures in the 20th package of sanctions has yet to be agreed, and some items may be excluded due to the position of individual countries. It is possible that the approval of the list will be delayed — for example, the 18th set of restrictions was discussed for more than a month last year. For a long time, they could not agree on the 19th package either. We should not forget about the position of the United States, which continues to refrain from new restrictions on Russia against the background of the negotiation process on the Ukrainian settlement. Moreover, the sanctions did not affect Moscow's position — the Russian economy remained stable.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
