The European Union is running out of gas. What does this mean?

Since the beginning of the heating season, European countries have withdrawn more gas from underground gas storage facilities than they pumped there in the summer. The net withdrawal exceeded 55 billion cubic meters, and the total volume of seizures since mid-October has reached approximately 60.5 billion cubic meters. This means that the gas remaining in storage from previous years is now being used. What the European Union may face now is in the Izvestia article.

Inventory decline and its causes

• The summer gas injections carried out to prepare for the winter period have already been fully used up, and now the EU countries are using up the reserves accumulated in previous years. The filling of underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in the largest European countries is noticeably below the continental average and is at historical lows for mid-February. About 23% of the total volume remained in Germany, 23.6% in France, and the figure fell to 14.3% in the Netherlands. This low occupancy rate reflects intensive culling during the cold winter and limited replenishment opportunities.

• Lower reserves by this time were observed only in 2022, and the historical minimum was recorded in the spring of 2018. At the same time, the share of wind energy in electricity generation in the EU in winter is about 20%, and the average price of gas in February decreased slightly compared to January.

• The gas consumption season from underground storage facilities traditionally lasts until the end of March or mid-April, which means that active fuel extraction will continue for several more weeks. Maintaining the energy balance in these conditions requires precise planning and consideration of limited reserves, especially in the largest economies of the continent.

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• In mid-February, the daily intake was about 580 million cubic meters, while February as a whole did not set a record for fuel consumption. There are currently about 36.5 billion cubic meters of gas in the EU's storage facilities.

• Accelerated gas consumption in Europe this winter is due to the fact that weather conditions turned out to be colder than expected, which increased gas consumption for heating and electricity generation. The situation was also affected by less energy from renewable sources such as wind and solar panels, which increased dependence on gas. Therefore, despite the fact that some industrial enterprises have reduced gas consumption due to lower profitability, the total fuel consumption turned out to be higher than planned.

• Summer injections into underground storage facilities proved insufficient to cover the increased consumption, as they were based on last year's consumption volumes, and real demand exceeded forecasts. Sanctions against Russia have complicated imports, increased the price of LNG, and limited the ability to accumulate large reserves. At the same time, Europe's long-term strategy for switching to renewable energy sources, including wind and solar generation, as well as phasing out coal and gas, has created additional risks to the stability of the energy system.

Consequences for the public and business

• Lower reserves in storage facilities by the end of the heating season mean the need for accelerated and more expensive gas injection in summer, which supports higher prices in the European market. The energy system is becoming less resistant to new cold waves or emergency supply outages, as there are fewer reserves for maneuver.

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• For industry and the public, this creates the risk of tariff increases and the need for additional energy-saving measures. In the long term, EU countries will be forced to purchase more gas, increase reserves, work with more suppliers, and increase investments in energy storage and generation infrastructure. Since all this is happening against the background of active financing of the defense sector, the moment will come when you will have to choose: energy supply or militarization. We wrote more about the EU's attempts to militarize the economy here.

• The current situation increases the sensitivity of the energy system to cold spells and supply disruptions: the number of crisis situations will increase. Gas reserves should be sufficient for the current heating season, but the unpredictability of the weather keeps risks alive. If additional purchases are needed, prices on the market will rise.

• If there is a shortage of gas in Europe, they try to close it by increasing the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG), mainly from the United States. Thus, in January–November 2025, the EU purchased LNG from the United States for a record amount of €23.2 billion, which is more than double the figures for the same period in 2024 (€10.9 billion). The authorities may also introduce cost-saving measures for industry.

• In addition, Europe can increase gas supplies via pipelines from Algeria and Azerbaijan. However, prices for hydrocarbons remain high. In addition, European countries have to compete for LNG with Asian markets, where demand is also very high.

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• All these circumstances affect the price dynamics of gas, making it more expensive for industry and domestic consumers, and increase inflationary pressure. Enterprises are beginning to consider moving production to countries with more affordable energy, such as China.

• Preparations for the next heating season are complicated, because if the European Union maintains its previous policy of restrictions and sanctions, problems with fuel supplies and costs will only worsen. The only way to stabilize the situation is to restore relations with a key supplier and adjust procurement policies and reserves.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Financial University Alexander Safonov;
• Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory at the Faculty of International Economic Relations of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Vladimir Skalkin.