Nuclear breakthrough: Will the US and Iran reach a new deal

The second round of Iranian-American talks aimed at finding solutions to the long-term dispute over Tehran's nuclear program has ended in Geneva. The main result was the development of principles that will guide the parties in preparing the text of the transaction. The dialogue is taking place against the backdrop of growing tensions: the United States has increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf, deploying large naval forces to the region, and Iran is simultaneously conducting large-scale naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, which increases the risk of escalation. Tehran is ready to allow US business to enter its bowels, but instead demands a "freeze" of anti-Iranian sanctions and a refusal to discuss its missile program.

What does Iran expect from the United States

The negotiations were again mediated by Oman. The first round of consultations between the United States and Iran took place on February 6 in Muscat and was largely probing. The meeting allowed the parties to identify their initial positions and verify their readiness for dialogue, but no significant rapprochement was achieved.

This time, the American side was again represented by the special envoy of the US President, Steve Witkoff, and the son—in-law of the American leader, Jared Kushner, while the Iranian side was represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

"We have reached an agreement on the basic principles on the basis of which we will develop a possible text of the agreement," Araqchi said live on Iranian state TV after the talks.

At the same time, he noted the progress in the dialogue compared to the previous round, stressing that the parties plan to continue working on the text of a possible agreement, after which the date of the next round of consultations will be determined.

According to the state broadcaster of Iran, the dialogue was focused on the issues of Tehran's nuclear program and the possible easing of anti-Iranian sanctions. The republic insists on maintaining the uranium enrichment program, and Washington demands that it be abandoned.

The United States, in turn, made it clear even before the talks that it would like to discuss a wider range of issues. Earlier, the US administration has repeatedly stated its desire to include the Iranian missile program in the agenda, as well as Tehran's support for armed allied groups in the region. Iran rejects this approach, emphasizing that any agreements are possible only within the framework of the nuclear dossier and solely in exchange for real sanctions relief.

US President Donald Trump has said he is participating "indirectly" in the Geneva process. He expressed confidence that Tehran is interested in reaching a deal. At the same time, the American leader unequivocally recalled that Washington has a military alternative. According to him, the rejection of the agreements is fraught with serious consequences for Iran, which, in his opinion, Tehran would prefer to avoid.

"Tehran is ready to engage in dialogue if a fair agreement is discussed within the framework of the nuclear agenda," Iranian international relations expert Hadi Issa Dalul told Izvestia. However, any attempts to expand the format beyond its limits, as happened earlier during consultations in Oman, where subsequent contacts touched first on the missile program and then on the axis of resistance, will make it impossible to reach an agreement.

According to him, in the current situation, "the ball is on the side of the United States." At the same time, the key issue for Iran remains not so much sanctions relief as obtaining firm guarantees that Washington will not unilaterally withdraw from a possible agreement again.

Iran remembers well that the previous attempt to resume negotiations was actually thwarted last summer. Then, against the background of diplomatic contacts, the US ally, Israel, launched large—scale strikes on the territory of Iran, and American strategic bombers joined the operation on June 22, attacking nuclear facilities. Already on June 23, Tehran hit the American military base Al-Udeid in Qatar — this was a response to the "blatant military aggression of the United States." After that, Tehran announced the suspension of uranium enrichment activities, but the issue of the real state of the program remains a matter of dispute.

Will Washington take military action

However, according to Reuters sources, the US armed forces are preparing for a scenario involving a long-term, several-week military operation against Iran. These signals are accompanied by the deployment, in Trump's words, of a "large-scale naval armada" of the United States in the region.

Tehran's response was to take action in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important international shipping routes and a key artery for oil exports from the Persian Gulf countries. On February 16, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps began naval exercises there. The maneuvers, dubbed "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz," are led by the IRGC command and, according to Iranian media, are aimed at checking combat readiness and developing scenarios for responding to potential threats.

Washington recognizes the complexity of the negotiation process. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Budapest on February 16, noted that it is extremely difficult to reach an agreement with Iran. However, according to him, the American side is ready to try to use a diplomatic chance. At the same time, he did not hide his skepticism about Tehran's willingness to make significant concessions.

The current round of negotiations for the United States is, first of all, an attempt to maximize the exhaustion of diplomatic resources before a possible military scenario, Roman Yanushevsky, editor—in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, believes.

— It is important for Washington to demonstrate that the White House has done everything possible for a peaceful settlement, as this will give potential military actions additional international legitimacy. At the same time, the theoretical possibility of reaching an agreement remains, but I doubt Tehran's willingness to make fundamental concessions, and I believe that the Iranian leadership will seek to delay negotiations and gain time," the expert told Izvestia.

At the same time, he pointed out the vulnerability of the American position. According to him, negotiators in the person of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner may at some point prefer to fix at least a partial result — for example, a limited compromise on Iran's nuclear program, leaving out other topics, including the missile dossier.

Proposed terms of the deal

At the same time, Tehran is trying to supplement the diplomatic track with economic arguments, hoping to increase Washington's interest in reaching agreements. The Iranian authorities are increasingly presenting the country as a potentially profitable destination for American investment, primarily in the event of a softening or lifting of the sanctions regime.

According to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy Hamid Ghanbari, the current dialogue with the United States affects "sensitive economic sectors," including energy and natural resources. According to him, the issue of procurement of civil aviation equipment is also on the agenda.

Speaking at the Iranian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the diplomat stressed that for a possible agreement to be sustainable, it is necessary that the United States also receive tangible economic benefits, primarily in high- and fast—impact industries. In exchange, Tehran expects to unlock foreign assets frozen due to US sanctions.

The Israeli press did not ignore this topic. According to Israel Hayom, the Iranians proposed to the White House to engage in joint projects in the oil and gas, mining and aviation industries, and during a meeting in Switzerland, a delegation from Tehran planned to present a detailed plan on how American companies could enter the Iranian oil and gas industry.