American Vice: Will the "Epstein case" lead to a Republican electoral fiasco
Republicans risk losing the congressional elections in November 2026. The scandals surrounding the "Epstein case" will haunt Donald Trump throughout the campaign, but much more serious problems for the White House in the run-up to the election will be rising prices, the third shutdown and the migration crisis, which led to mass protests and the deaths of several Americans. Polls show a decline in Trump's rating to the lowest since the beginning of his second term.
How the "Epstein list" will affect Trump's rating
In the coming fall, the American administration will face a serious test of strength. Midterm congressional elections will be held in the United States on November 3, 2026. They will re-elect the entire House of Representatives (435) and a third of the senators (33 people). Against this background, the struggle between the two main political forces — Republicans and Democrats - is escalating in Washington.
One of the "slippery topics" was the story surrounding the "Epstein case." The day before, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi published lists of 300 names of celebrities and politicians mentioned in the pedophile financier's files. The list includes Donald and Melania Trump, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack and Michelle Obama, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Prince Harry, Bill Gates, Woody Allen, Mark Zuckerberg and Beyonce.
Financier and billionaire Jeffrey Epstein has been charged with human trafficking and sexual molestation of minors. He was detained in 2019, after which he committed suicide in a prison cell without waiting for a trial. His girlfriend and accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell was sentenced to 20 years in prison in 2022 for complicity.
The list includes representatives and supporters of both parties, but each side is trying to use the "Epstein case" to discredit its opponents. Earlier, Democrats from the House of Representatives themselves published a number of letters from the late financier, from which it follows that Trump knew about Epstein's crimes. In response, he accused them of trying to "raise the topic of the Jeffrey Epstein hoax" in order to hide their own inability to solve the problem of the shutdown and budget issues.
Curiously, the publication of Epstein's files became one of Trump's campaign promises during the presidential campaign. Thus, the Republican leader wanted to cast a shadow on the Democrats and convict them of having contacts with a pedophile. In November 2025, he signed a bill approved by Congress demanding the publication of materials on the case.
In reality, today the story around the "Epstein case" hits Trump harder than the Democrats, says Alexei Chernyaev, an American political scientist. According to him, not all the documents were eventually published, contrary to the promises of the Republicans. In December 2025, after the US Department of Justice submitted another set of documents, Democrats in Congress suspected the Trump administration and Attorney General Pam Bondi personally of selectively disclosing information. In a series of posts on X, the Democrats accused the Justice Ministry of "incomplete disclosure" of data and "too many edits," demanding to explain why some of the files were deleted just a day after publication.
— Bill Clinton (former US president who attended Epstein's parties. — Ed.) is still a long time ago, and Trump is what is happening to America now. In addition, Trump and the Republican administration have, in the opinion of many Americans, information about Epstein and his affairs, which they do not fully publish. The same congressmen, judging by their reviews, have seen files with child abuse that have not yet been publicly available," the expert explained.
The story of the publication of the files is likely to continue, says Candidate of Political Sciences, researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEMI) HSE Inna Yanikeeva.
— The degree of negative impact of the Epstein story on Trump's rating will depend solely on the context in which this information is presented by the media, and this is already happening. At the same time, it is likely to be insignificant, since the files have already been published, as the public wanted, which generally speaks in favor of Trump, who kept his promise made during the election campaign," the expert told Izvestia.
Nevertheless, the pro-democratic media will constantly use this topic as the congressional elections in November 2026 approach, intending to further discredit Trump in the eyes of his electorate.
Will the United States cope with the third shutdown
However, the "Epstein case" will not affect Donald Trump's rating and congressional election results as much as the story surrounding the fight against migrants, which eventually led to mass protests in a number of states and the third shutdown. This time, Congress failed to reach an agreement on financing the work of the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Since February 14, most of its employees have been forced to work for free.
The Democrats are ready to compromise, but for this they are blackmailing Trump, demanding a deep reform of the Interior Ministry. First of all, to abandon the deportation of migrants and restrict the right of federal agents (ICE) to use weapons after the deaths of two liberal activists in Minnesota.
As a result of the shutdown, US cybersecurity, which is also the responsibility of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, risks suffering. Experts remind that the previous autumn government shutdown allowed the Democratic Party to perform more confidently in local elections in a number of states, so ahead of the congressional vote in November 2026, they will only increase pressure on the White House. At the same time, due to the protests in Minnesota, where ICE officers killed two activists, riots spread to a number of other states.
Amid the migrant crisis, Trump's rating has dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of his second term. According to NBC, only 39% approved of the policy of the head of the American administration, compared with 42% in December last year. Thus, it is important for Republicans to get out of the story of the third shutdown with maximum gains, so that Democrats cannot attribute the victory only to themselves, Inna Yanikeeva believes.
— The Democrats are demanding changes in the procedure for conducting immigration operations, and they may well be accepted. It is important for Trump's rating how this story will be presented in the information field, because, as with Epstein's files, you can both benefit from the situation and harm yourself even more," the expert said.
At the same time, it's not even the story of the third shutdown that hits Trump's positions the hardest, but the economic problems that all Americans are feeling, Alexey Chernyaev is sure.
— Trump's customs wars have led to a surge in prices and inflation. For Americans, this is all quite sensitive, so this is the first thing that affects Trump's rating," says the political scientist.
Last fall, the U.S. Department of Labor recorded an average 3% increase in consumer prices. The cost of food increased by 3.1%, new and used cars — by 0.8% and 5.1%, respectively. Transportation services rose in price by 2.5%, housing — by 3.6%. Such a development, combined with the factors of the shutdown and the "Epstein case," could lead to the Republicans losing the congressional elections. The Reds are likely to lose their majority in the House of Representatives, and their advantage in the Senate will be reduced to almost zero, according to HSE analyst Egor Toropov.
Today, Republicans control both chambers by a slim margin. They hold 53 seats in the Senate against 45 for the Democrats, and 218-220 against 212-213 for the opponents in the House of Representatives. The vacant positions are temporarily unoccupied due to the resignations and deaths of politicians.
However, the November elections are still more than nine months away, and the unpredictability of American politics, and especially Trump's, could radically change the balance of political forces.
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