Missiles and complexes: Britain prepares nuclear safeguards for Europe

London plans to increase its nuclear potential to take over leadership in ensuring security in Europe, Russian Ambassador to the United Kingdom Andrey Kelin told Izvestia. According to him, Moscow is adapting its military plans to new threats. Sweden may become the first country to receive security guarantees from London, although the British nuclear forces will not appear there yet. Experts believe that the deployment of British and French carriers in the states bordering the Russian Federation is possible in the long term. The Izvestia article describes how the plans of London and Paris will affect the dialogue around strategic stability in the context of the collapse of the START Treaty.

Britain is deploying a "nuclear umbrella" over Europe

Against the background of disagreements with the United States, a discussion began among the European members of NATO about their own nuclear potential. The claims of the Donald Trump administration to Greenland have shown European leaders that they can now rely only on themselves. The other two nuclear powers of NATO, Britain and France— are taking the chance to strengthen their own influence.

Britain plans to increase its nuclear arsenal and purchase American F-35A fighter jets in order to seize leadership in ensuring security in Europe, Russian Ambassador to London Andrey Kelin told Izvestia.

— Strengthening such a potential, apparently, inspires London with a ghostly hope for leadership in ensuring security in Europe, including by promising its nuclear guarantees for certain countries of the Old World. Besides, it is necessary to somehow justify the costs of such a build-up in the eyes of our own population," the diplomat stressed.

Earlier, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson spoke about preliminary negotiations with France and Britain on cooperation in the nuclear field. Although not so long ago, Sweden was among the countries actively advocating for universal nuclear disarmament. After joining NATO in 2024, it found itself under British cover, as London declares the subordination of its nuclear weapons to the tasks of the collective defense of the bloc.

"The fact that NATO's Stockholm is forced to seek reassurance of these guarantees is eloquent evidence of its lack of confidence in the strength of its allied commitments,— Kelin said.

According to him, it is still unclear what exactly is meant by "guarantees of nuclear deterrence," which were the subject of conversation between Stockholm and London. The deployment of the British arsenal on Swedish territory is impossible, since the British strategic nuclear forces are based on submarines constantly on duty at sea.

The United Kingdom currently has 225 nuclear warheads, of which 120 are on active duty on four Vanguard nuclear submarines. The presence of only naval carriers is the main feature of the British nuclear arsenal. However, London intends to change the situation — last summer, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the purchase of 12 F-35A fighter jets capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons. The contract is estimated at about 1.5–2 billion pounds, including maintenance and infrastructure.

The interest of the British authorities in Sweden began to manifest itself even before Stockholm joined NATO: in 2022, the parties signed an agreement on security guarantees. The large Scandinavian country is a supplier of advanced technologies and a key ally in the implementation of the British strategy of dominance in northern Europe.

London is now really stepping up its diplomatic efforts in the military-political field in order to become a leader in Europe, Natalia Yeremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, told Izvestia. In addition to providing security guarantees, the UK is developing its own alliance, the United Expeditionary Forces, which includes 10 countries of Northern Europe and the Baltic States.

"We are talking about building parallel arrangements and security structures outside of NATO," she explained.

According to her, the provision of British nuclear guarantees is possible only in the long term as the kingdom's potential is modernized. At the same time, the growing military spending is causing discontent among the population and may affect the results of the next parliamentary elections.

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The possibility of expanding the UK's nuclear safeguards will need to be taken into account in Russian military planning, as well as in the process of further discussing strategic stability issues, the Russian Ambassador to London stressed.

— The main point of these arguments and the highlighting of nuclear issues in the media is to further inflame military hysteria, inciting European countries (Sweden) to even more brazen and reckless anti—Russian policies. Obviously, the British nuclear umbrella will not be able to provide any additional material security guarantees," Kelin concluded.

The meaning of "nuclear security guarantees" is the promise of a nuclear Power to protect its non-nuclear ally in the event of an attack on it, using its nuclear arsenal for this purpose. Such guarantees can be implemented through a declaration of readiness to use nuclear weapons to defend an ally or the deployment of weapons of destruction on its territory.

In addition, joint missions are possible when non-nuclear countries receive aircraft capable of carrying nuclear bombs and train pilots for these tasks. For example, NATO already has such a program with the United States, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey are participating in it.

If France and the United Kingdom do decide to commit other European countries to protecting them with nuclear weapons, then three scenarios are possible. First, Paris and London will officially declare their readiness to use weapons of mass destruction to defend their European allies.

Secondly, Paris may deploy Rafale fighter jets capable of carrying such weapons and special warheads for them on the territory of other European countries. So far, Poland has expressed interest in this option. With the advent of the F-35A fighter jets, London will be able to take a similar step.

Finally, it is possible to create naval bases for British and French nuclear submarines in European countries. However, this will require large investments and infrastructure. The Elysee Palace and Downing Street emphasize that they do not intend to share the management of their nuclear arsenals with other countries. Last year, London and Paris agreed to coordinate the actions of their nuclear forces, and the FMAN/FMC cruise missile is also being developed, which in the future may have a nuclear modification to equip fighters of both countries.

In response to the appearance of British and French nuclear carriers near its borders, Russia is able to increase the number of its own missile systems in the Kaliningrad region and Belarus. Moscow can also warn countries that agree to deploy nuclear elements on their territory (for example, Poland or Sweden) that they are becoming targets for a retaliatory strike.

"London's intention, in coordination with Paris, to provide guarantees for the protection of European allies with nuclear weapons once again confirms the need to take into account the nuclear potential of Great Britain and France in Russian—American arms control, which was one of the reasons for Russia's "suspension" of its participation in the START Treaty in 2023," said a researcher at the Center for International Security. IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vasily Klimov.

According to the expert, despite the very limited potential in comparison with Russia and the United States, represented by more than 200 warheads on nuclear submarines, they can serve as a "deterrent" in the theater of military operations.