Moscow's housing market showed a decline in consumer activity in January

The Moscow housing market met 2026 with a decline in consumer activity: in January, the number of transactions in all major sectors decreased. On February 16, analysts from Metrium told Izvestia about this based on data from the Federal Register of the Capital.

The number of registered equity participation agreements decreased by 9% year–on-year, mortgage transactions by 8%, and the drop in the ready-made housing market reached 22%.

"January, in principle, is always considered not the most active month in terms of sales. In addition, against the background of the announced changes in the terms of the family mortgage from February 1, the main rush demand was realized back in November-December 2025," said Igor Sibrenkov, Commercial Director of Osnova Group.

He noted that buyers sought to complete transactions before raising requirements for borrowers, which ensured a record December, but naturally emptied the January sales funnel. According to Sibrenkov, spring may turn out to be more active than usual if further measures are taken to limit the program.

In January 2026, 7 thousand loan transactions were registered in the mortgage market, which is 8% less than in January 2025 (7.7 thousand agreements), and 35% less than in December 2025, when the number of agreements between banks and borrowers was 10.8 thousand. The decline in mortgage demand has intensified compared to last year: a year ago, the decline was 3%, now it is 8%.

"Interest in combined transactions is gradually growing in the mortgage market, where part of the loan is issued under a preferential program, and the rest is at the market rate," said Larisa Shvetsova, CEO of River Park LLC.

She clarified that this format allows customers to keep an acceptable monthly payment, even without being able to fully meet the limits of subsidized programs. Against the background of a gradual reduction in the key rate, interest in combined schemes has increased markedly: customers see that the market part of the loan, although slowly, is becoming less burdensome.

"The results of January should be treated with a certain degree of caution. This is obviously a low season, and it would be premature to rely on its indicators when making long—term forecasts," sums up Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium.

Syrtsov also clarified that the market traditionally comes out of the winter break only by March, when a more objective picture of consumer activity is formed.

"Nevertheless, it is already obvious that if the current level of mortgage rates is maintained, a pronounced spring surge in demand should not be expected. Buyers continue to adapt to expensive loans, but their resources are not unlimited. Without additional incentives, the market is likely to remain in subdued demand mode until the second half of the year," he concluded.

Bad concrete: developers are abandoning apartments with finishing out of economy

But the demand for such facilities is growing.

Last December, analysts from Metrium and SIS Development said that the Southeastern Administrative District of Moscow had become the leader in price increases for massive new buildings over the past year. In 12 months, the average cost per square meter there has increased by 25%. A significant increase was also recorded in the Northern Administrative District, where prices increased by 24% — from 311.6 thousand to 387.5 thousand rubles.

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