The economist spoke about the impact of lowering the key interest rate on consumer loans

The reduction of the key rate to 15.5% by the Central Bank will affect consumer lending. Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia on February 13.

According to the expert, the Central Bank decided to lower the rate in favor of economic growth in order to avoid the withdrawal of economic agents from the market and from business. In addition, he noted that a reduction in the rate to 15.5% is a positive signal for businesses, which may mean a further reduction.

"That is, business expects the Central Bank to continue its downward trend. And they will prepare for the development and growth of their enterprises. In general, I think that, from the point of view of economic growth, the Central Bank did absolutely the right thing. From the point of view of economic theory, it went against the grain, as they say," he said.

In addition, according to Ostapkovich, a reduction in the Central Bank's key rate will affect a reduction in the rate on consumer loans, which will now become more affordable.

"And people will structure their old debts. If they borrowed conditionally at 20-22%, then now there will be a consumer loan at 19%. They will repay it with a lower rate. In other words, this is a positive maneuver for the population from the point of view of lending. From the point of view of the savings model, this is negative. Because deposits are going to fall now," the specialist explained.

In addition, he said that the rate cut would not have a strong impact on the mortgage market, as the rate remains high for people with low and middle incomes.

"Until the key reaches 12%, until the mortgage reaches 12-13%, I don't think there will be any sharp investment activity. I don't expect it. Individual defendants will take these loans, but this will not be a general action," Ostapkovich said.

The expert also stressed that a decrease of 50 basis points would not affect the macroeconomics, and Russians would be able to feel any changes only after six to nine months.

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On the same day, the Central Bank lowered the key rate to 15.5% per annum. The regulator stressed that the acceleration of price growth in January was due to one-time factors, and after their exhaustion, inflation will begin to decline again.

The head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Reshetnikov, announced on February 12 that the Russian economy would continue to slow down in the first half of this year, but the growth rate would recover in 2027. The minister also assured that the agency would update its economic growth forecasts for this year and the planned period.

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