Meet the weapons: The EU has begun discussing the creation of nuclear forces

Brussels is seeking strategic autonomy from the United States, the European Parliament told Izvestia. On the sidelines of the EU, they are seriously talking about what seemed unthinkable yesterday — the creation of their own nuclear arsenal. However, experts warn that such ambitions of Europe will require enormous costs and may finally bury the dialogue on disarmament. Nevertheless, while Washington openly compares its allies to children, Europe is hastily reviewing its military doctrines, turning from a consumer of security into its producer.

Results of the meeting of EU Defense Ministers

Against the background of the negotiation process in the Emirates between the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine, Brussels is trying to develop a new strategy. Previous attempts to convince the administration of Donald Trump to abandon dialogue with the Russian Federation and continue arming Ukraine have failed. Now Europe is forced to assume major obligations to support Kiev. On February 11, the European Parliament approved a loan to Ukraine worth €90 billion. Britain, which is not a member of the EU, will purchase $205 million worth of American weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Australia is going to be involved in the purchases, the German press writes.

Support for Kiev will also be the main topic of the meeting of NATO defense ministers on February 12. However, American Minister Pete Hegseth will miss it, writes Politico. This sign clearly indicates a cooling of relations between the two sides of the Atlantic. Moreover, the United States will transfer control of two NATO command centers to the Europeans. Earlier, the US permanent representative to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, compared the European allies of the United States in the alliance with children who should no longer depend on a "parent."

Against this background, at a meeting in Brussels on February 11, EU defense ministers discussed strengthening Europe's strategic autonomy. In addition to trade wars and contradictions over the dialogue with Russia, relations between the United States and the EU deteriorated sharply after Donald Trump's claims to Greenland. And although Washington is discussing with its European allies the terms of an agreement on a legitimate increase in American forces on the island, Brussels now understands that the United States can no longer be counted on.

The EU's desire for autonomy from the United States is a long—term trend that will take about 25-50 years to achieve. The European Union was built in conditions of strategic dependence on the United States and NATO, so it will take a lot of effort to form military structures, Daria Moiseeva, Candidate of political Sciences, chief analyst at ANO Kolaboratoria, told Izvestia.

— The duration of gaining this strategic autonomy will also depend on which political course the United States takes. Either Trump's strategy ends with his presidency and changes, or future presidents will continue this course. And then the EU will have to accelerate its strategic autonomy," the expert noted.

Already, European rearmament programs, for example, Readiness 2030, stipulate that 55% of the equipment should be purchased within the EU. A joint British-German medium-range missile is being created, as well as new weapons: drones, new generation fighters. Even in supplies to Ukraine, as Western media write, the EU leadership calls for giving preference to European weapons rather than American ones.

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Will the EU have nuclear weapons

The head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, suggested discussing the acquisition of her own nuclear deterrent. Currently, American atomic weapons are located in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, as well as in the UK and Turkey.

The EU is discussing different ways to develop its own nuclear potential. One of the options is to use France's arsenal, said Tomasz Zdechowski, an MEP from the Czech Republic.

— The question of how to strengthen European security and deterrence is sometimes raised during broad political discussions in Europe. France's nuclear potential may be mentioned in this context, but there is no official EU policy or decision to extend the "French nuclear umbrella" to the entire European Union. Any such step would require decision—making at the national level and broad political consensus," the politician said.

There is another point of view: the EU should create its own nuclear arsenal, since the French one will remain under the control of Paris anyway.

— And even if the president [Emmanuel] Macron will talk about transferring it to "European use," I don't think that will happen. Especially considering that Macron is leaving office in 2027. I believe that we must create an independent European nuclear deterrent system against future threats," Finnish Army General Pekka Toveri, an MEP, told Izvestia.

The easiest way for the EU to acquire its nuclear arsenal remains to use the existing ones — French and British. In early February, the Swedish authorities announced that they were negotiating with Paris and London on nuclear safeguards. The German government also maintains a dialogue on this issue with France, the German Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia.

—Paris would not mind receiving some kind of conditional "contributions" from other EU members to strengthen its nuclear arsenal as a guarantee of compliance with the European dimension of French national interests," Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, told Izvestia.

According to him, it is possible to base French tactical aviation with nuclear-armed missiles on the territory of other EU countries, but this will remain primarily an element of the French nuclear "dyad". The emergence of new means of delivering such weapons cannot be ruled out, for example, the return of nuclear-armed intermediate-range ballistic missiles to French service, but they are likely to remain under the exclusive control of Paris.

In addition, the French and British arsenals are quite specific in nature, with a significant emphasis on the naval component. Europe's current military infrastructure is simply not ready for the presence of British and French nuclear forces.

Europe has the scientific and industrial reserves to create its own arsenal, but this will require enormous costs and time. All EU countries, including Germany, are parties to the NPT (Treaty on the Non—Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons). The development of its own nuclear program would be a direct violation of the treaty and would provoke a harsh international reaction. The creation of a nuclear bomb by the EU requires a unified command system, but there are no structures in the union that all 27 countries would entrust the right to manage.

Against the background of the expiration of the START Treaty, the world found itself without binding documents in the field of nuclear arms control. Nevertheless, Moscow and Washington are negotiating changes to this agreement, said US Vice President Jay Dee Vance. The build-up of the EU's nuclear capabilities is likely to complicate the negotiation process. Russia has already stressed that the United Kingdom and France should join the dialogue on the new agreement. In addition, Moscow is strengthening its potential: Russia's strategic nuclear forces have been updated by 95%, and their naval component by almost 100%.