Make delivery: Russia is preparing a shipment of oil for Cuba in the near future

Cuba will have enough remaining fuel for a maximum of three months, experts say. The Ministry of Energy advised Russian tourists not to visit the island, and tour operators to suspend the sale of vouchers. Against this background, Russia is already preparing to supply oil and petroleum products as humanitarian aid to Cuba, the Russian Embassy in Havana told Izvestia. However, such support may result in economic and political costs for Moscow in its dialogue with Washington. Latin American countries and other potential allies of Havana are still completely afraid of new duties from the United States.

What is happening in Cuba right now

The oil blockade of Cuba has a serious impact on the residents and the economy of the country. Citizens cannot fill up their cars: sometimes they have to stand in long queues at gas stations, where gasoline began to be sold for dollars, and the price per gallon exceeded twice the minimum wage. The power grid is out of order, making it difficult to supply water.

Against this background, according to media reports, the second wave of hotel closures has already begun. All this causes significant damage to tourism, which is seemingly the most reliable economic sector in the country. The authorities do not hesitate to urge residents to save on everything, including water and food, and the battery charge on a mobile phone is becoming an increasingly valuable resource. Nevertheless, tourists, including Russian ones, are not in a hurry to leave the island en masse.

— No evacuation measures are planned. Unfortunately, power outages in Cuba are not a new phenomenon, their frequency and duration depend on the availability of fuel at local power plants and the functioning of the national energy system, the Russian Embassy in Cuba told Izvestia.

Nevertheless, the Ministry of Economic Development recommended that Russian tourists not visit Cuba, and tour operators suspend the sale of vouchers.

Experts warn that there is literally two months left of oil on the island. Viktor Kheifets, chief researcher at the ILA RAS, told Izvestia that with the cancellation of some flights, Cuba will be able to hold out for perhaps another three months. There are worse forecasts: according to the Financial Times, there will be enough fuel reserves for 15 days.

Obviously, Havana needs the support of its allies. In particular, Moscow has repeatedly openly expressed its willingness to assist in this matter. Russia is now preparing to supply a shipment of oil to the island, the Russian Embassy in Cuba told Izvestia.

"In the near future, it is planned to supply oil and petroleum products from Russia to Cuba as humanitarian aid," the diplomats confirmed.

The last major Russian oil supply to Cuba was in February 2025. Then the volume amounted to 100 thousand tons. It was sent in the form of a state loan approved by the President of the Russian Federation in the amount of $ 60 million. If the volume is the same now, then under previous requests from the authorities, when the crisis was not so raging, it would have been enough for only 19-20 days, Nikolai Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, estimated for Izvestia. According to him, in 2025, the country bought an average of 37 thousand barrels per day, and 100 thousand tons of oil is around 733 thousand barrels.

Oil supplies to Cuba may result in some economic and political costs for Russia, experts warn. Given the budget deficit, Moscow is unlikely to simply give Havana fuel, said Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund. In addition, any support for Cuba is now being opposed by the United States, he recalled.

There is another potential obstacle — the United States may detain Russian tankers. Moreover, there have already been such precedents after the American operation in Venezuela. In particular, on January 7, the United States detained the Mariner ship in international waters because it allegedly transported oil from Iran and Venezuela, bypassing sanctions. The Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation stressed that the tanker received permission to sail under the flag of the Russian Federation back in December 2025. Soon, Donald Trump, in response to Moscow's appeal, released two Russians from the crew.

The Island of bad luck: the oil crisis in Cuba is hitting tourism

Despite the difficulties, Russians are not putting off traveling to a Latin American country.

Which countries can support Cuba?

So far, apart from Russia, Cuba's support from other BRICS members is most likely. On January 1, 2025, the country officially became a partner state of the association. Potentially, joining BRICS could help Cuba overcome the negative effects of American sanctions that were imposed more than 60 years ago. For example, the ability to trade in national currencies within the association reduces dependence on the dollar. However, according to experts, one should not expect strong "energy" support from the BRICS.

Firstly, not all countries of the association are oil-producing. China and India, one of the most economically powerful countries, mainly import fuel. In theory, the United Arab Emirates could send oil. Secondly, the BRICS' capabilities here are still limited, since the association does not position itself as a bloc, and even more so as a military one, and therefore a consolidated response to international threats is not yet on the priority agenda of the association.

"The BRICS countries hardly spoke out at the time about the military operation against Iran in 2025,— Viktor Kheifets notes. — And if they did, it was in a very cautious way, saying very little about the role of the United States, and this despite the fact that Iran was already a full member of the BRICS, and Cuba is now just a partner.

The unfavorable background is created, of course, by Donald Trump's threats to impose duties on those countries that want to supply oil to Cuba. And if the trade turnover between Russia and the United States is already quite insignificant due to the destructive policy of the previous White House administration, then China, India and Brazil are unlikely to voluntarily want to damage their own economies.

Beijing has been waging long-standing trade disputes with Washington, and New Delhi is currently under pressure over purchases of Russian oil, so Brazil is the most likely candidate. However, this issue is not even discussed there, says Heifetz. Brazil is a major trading partner of the United States, so it is important for the country to continue trading with Washington without additional burdens, after the United States imposed a 50% import duty on all goods from it on August 1.

Other neighbors in the region could also supply oil to Cuba. But Venezuela, which was previously its main importer in this area, can no longer be counted on. The US Treasury has just issued a license allowing the export, sale, storage and refining of oil in the republic to legal entities registered in the United States. However, the document prohibits transactions with individuals from Russia, Iran, North Korea and Cuba.

On February 9, Mexico officially announced the suspension of oil supplies to Cuba due to the very possible duties. At the same time, President Claudia Sheinbaum called Trump's threat to impose restrictions unfair, so Mexico City still provides humanitarian support. In particular, the authorities sent food and basic necessities to Cuba on two Navy ships. Colombia or Ecuador remain, but they are also expected to be heavily dependent on the United States for trade.