Survival market: why unemployment in Russia may rise in 2026
The Russian labor market enters 2026 in a state of contradiction: the number of vacancies is updating its highs, and unemployment remains at a record low. However, experts warn that the situation may change in the coming months due to demographic shifts, technological transformations and changes in hiring strategies on the part of companies. Which industries are experiencing the most acute personnel shortage, why businesses are becoming tougher towards employees, and which skills will help keep them in demand, Izvestia reports.
Shortage of vacancies and low unemployment: what is the paradox
Lusine Abgaryan, Chief Operating Officer of Ventra HR Holding, told Izvestia that at the beginning of 2026, there were about 4.2 million open vacancies in the Russian economy, the most since 2006. At the same time, the unemployment rate, according to Rosstat, remains at a minimum of about 2.3%.
— This is a classic example of a structural imbalance: companies are ready to hire, but they cannot find specialists with the necessary competencies, even with a large number of applicants, — the expert noted.
According to her, the greatest shortage today is observed in the working professions — among installers, welders and electricians, as well as engineers in mechanical engineering and energy. An acute shortage of personnel persists in construction, which is associated with the implementation of national projects "Housing and urban environment" and "Infrastructure".
— Separate tension zone — IT. First of all, these are specialists in cybersecurity and the development of domestic software. According to the estimates of the Association of Computer and Information Technology Enterprises (APKIT), in 2025 alone, the demand for Russian developers increased by 37%," Abgaryan stressed.
The shortage of personnel is particularly noticeable in the retail, logistics and transportation industries, where high staff turnover is combined with an increase in business volumes.
Among the key factors influencing the labor market, the expert puts demography in the first place.
— The low birth rate in the 1990s and early 2000s today has a direct impact on the working-age population. Objectively, there are fewer employees than vacancies," she explained.
The technological factor remains equally significant. Companies are actively implementing new solutions, obtaining patents, developing their own developments and having to compete with each other for rare specialists.
— This requires staff with skills that simply did not exist until recently. These competencies are just being formed, which means that the market inevitably faces a shortage," Abgaryan added.
Who hires the most
The pharmaceutical industry remains one of the most dynamic industries in 2026. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the production of medicines in 2025 increased by 22.4% in physical terms, which was facilitated by import substitution programs and the national Healthcare project.
— Not only production specialists are in demand, but also medical representatives, key account managers, marketing and research staff. Large holdings are investing billions of rubles in their own research centers and plan to hire hundreds of scientists," Abgaryan said.
The agro-industrial complex is also actively developing. By the end of 2025, exports of agricultural products reached $48.3 billion (about 3.74 trillion rubles), which is 12% higher than in the previous year. Government support and the policy of import substitution stimulate the technological modernization of farms.
— Agricultural holdings are introducing drones, IoT sensors, and precision farming systems. This creates demand for agricultural engineers, agronomic analysts, veterinarians with digital skills, as well as logisticians and developers of agricultural IT solutions," the expert explained.
How hiring and retention strategies are changing
The potential increase in unemployment and the continuing shortage of personnel are forcing companies to reconsider their approaches to personnel. According to Abgaryan, with falling unemployment, businesses focus on retaining employees and investing in team development, and with the threat of growth, they strengthen the selection and optimization of processes.
"Employers are more actively implementing fast feedback cycles, flexible approaches, and building a brand not only around salaries, but also around the values of sustainable development and social responsibility," she said.
At the same time, companies are getting tougher on ineffective employees.
— Today, the average time for making a decision on dismissal has been reduced to six to eight weeks. A business needs a quick result. If ten years ago they were looking for 35-year-olds with ready—made experience, now they have to invest in 22—year-olds simply because there are no other candidates," Abgaryan stressed.
Special attention is being paid to Generation Z, which already makes up about a fifth of the economically active population. Flexible hours and remote work, constant feedback, participation in socially significant projects and a minimum of bureaucracy are important for this audience.
—Large companies are developing mentoring and project formats to retain young professionals," she explained.
Which skills will be crucial
In the face of increasing competition, the expert identifies three groups of competencies, without which it will be difficult to build a career in 2026.
— The first is adaptability and stress tolerance. The business is constantly changing, and employees need to rebuild quickly. The second is analytical thinking and the ability to speak the language of numbers. It is impossible to make decisions without it. The third is technological efficiency. It's important not just to know about artificial intelligence, but to understand how to integrate it into your work and improve your own efficiency," Abgaryan said.
According to her, it is the combination of flexibility, analytics and digital skills that will become the main competitive advantage for applicants in the coming years.
Accordingly, even if unemployment in Russia starts to rise in 2026, the labor market will remain tense and fragmented. Competition for jobs will increase in some sectors, while an acute shortage of personnel will persist in others. This means that the struggle for qualified specialists will continue, and the requirements for the quality of training and continuous training will only become higher.
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