Flight adversity: by 2030, Russia will be able to replace only a third of the fleet
Import substitution of the Russian aircraft fleet by 2030 may amount to only a third instead of the expected 50%, according to the Institute of Research and Expertise of VEB.RF. At the same time, the civil aircraft industry development program provides for the production of almost 1,000 aircraft. The reasons for unrealistic goals are the lag in the pace of production of their own airliners and the extension of the service life of foreign ones. The UAC said that the domestic industry can fulfill the instructions of the Cabinet of Ministers to develop an import-substituted line of aircraft. In addition, on February 25, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, during a report to the State Duma, announced the completion of certification of the Tu-214 passenger aircraft and the launch of its mass production. What problems arise when updating the fleet and what is the current share of Russian aircraft — in the material of Izvestia.
What is the pace of aircraft import substitution?
Back in November, the Cabinet of Ministers approved an economic development plan, according to which 50% of the country's aircraft should be self-made by 2030. However, this figure may be only 30%, according to a letter from VEB's chief economist to the Ministry of Economic Development.Andrey Klepach's Russian Federation (Izvestia has it).
According to the estimates of the VEB Institute for Research and Expertise.In the Russian Federation, the reason may be the lag in the commissioning of aircraft of Russian aircraft manufacturing enterprises. Also, the share of domestic airliners largely depends on the rate of departure of foreign aircraft.
"Due to the higher observed ability to repair foreign aircraft (AF) than previously expected, the share of domestic aircraft may be lower than expected, especially given the shift in production plans," the document says.
The task of ensuring the share of domestic aircraft in the fleet of Russian airlines in the amount of 50% by 2030 was set by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the decree "On the national Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 and for the future up to 2036" back in May 2024.
As part of the comprehensive program for the development of the air transport industry (KPGA), approved in 2022 and designed for the period up to 2030-2035, it was planned to produce 1081 aircraft with the start of deliveries in 2023. However, in the spring of 2024, after an audit of the enterprises of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC, part of Rostec), the plans were adjusted: the number of planned aircraft was reduced to 994. As explained in the UAC, the deadline shift was due to the need for full-scale flight tests of Russian systems and components to ensure passenger safety.
On February 5, during a meeting of the working group of the Flight Guidance Council of the Federal Air Transport Agency, an updated forecast for the replenishment of the fleet with domestic aircraft was presented. The main changes were the reduction of the overall aircraft production plan by 5% (minus 50 units) — from 994 to 944 units, as well as the extension of the program for another five years, which actually means a slowdown in the production of airliners.
The cabin of the fully import-substituted SJ-100 aircraft
Currently, according to government data, the share of Russian aircraft is 19-20%. Izvestia sent inquiries to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Federal Air Transport Agency, as well as to airlines.
The Russian industry can and does fulfill the government's instructions to develop an import—substituted line of domestic civil aircraft in all major segments - we are talking about simultaneous work on programs for the regional turboprop IL-114-300, short-range SJ-100, medium-range MS-21 and Tu-214, the UAC press service told Izvestia.
So far, since 2022, virtually no fully import-substituted aircraft has been produced and put into full operation by the airline, although a lot of work has been done in terms of production, Dmitry Tortev, a member of the expert council of the State Duma Committee for the Protection of Competition, told Izvestia. Individual prototypes of domestic aircraft have been assembled, but they are still at the certification stage, the expert explained.
— The main obstacle today is not the lack of technology, but the endless cycle of "testing-refinement-new certification". The same MC-21 development program was launched back in 2007, and during this time, many suppliers of components and equipment have changed. Each change requires a new certification," the expert added.
All four programs are in the investment phase — this work is proceeding in an unprecedentedly short time, significantly faster than the usual production cycle in international aviation practice, the UAC emphasized.
"At the same time, entire sub—sectors are actually being recreated to create new systems and aggregates, and new competencies that were previously absent in our country are being formed," they added.
To date, all programs have reached the final stages of implementation — aircraft with domestic systems and assemblies have been created, they are flying, some of them have already completed certification tests, the UAC said.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced on February 25 that the certification of the Tu-214 passenger aircraft has been completed and is being put into mass production during a government report to the State Duma. The Tu-214 was previously produced and will be produced in an updated form at the Kazan Aviation Plant.
— Throughout the year, specialists conducted intensive tests of aircraft based on advanced domestic solutions and materials. In December, the certification of the Tu-214 medium-haul airliner was completed. We are now putting it into production," the Prime Minister said.
In addition to 11 Tu-214s, 18 medium-range MC-21s have now been contracted, the UAC noted. In addition, contracts have been signed for 42 import-substituted Superjet 100s, as well as for three regional Il-114 aircraft. Thus, the formed production reserves at the moment correspond to the volume of requests from airlines, the UAC concluded.
— The share of foreign airliners in the fleet of our airlines is large, since until 2022, Russian airlines massively purchased Boeing and Airbus due to their mass production, well-established service and affordable leasing. Domestic projects went slowly, were produced in small batches and did not cover the entire model range. The situation has changed since the sanctions were imposed, but the fleet has already been formed," said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
In January 2024, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that more than 600 fully Russian airliners should be built over the next six years. The fleet of Russian airlines will be based on SSJ-New, MS-21-310, IL-114-300, Tu-214 and Il-96-300 aircraft.
— The main reason for the lag in production rates is the lack of trained specialists to produce several types of aircraft at once. After all, a rather large line has been announced: MC-21, import-substituted Sukhoi Superjet-100, Il-114-300, Tu-214. In the case of the MS-21 and SSJ-100, the industry has not yet been able to increase engine production. The number of finished MS-21s is twice as high as the number of manufactured engines. Not to mention the fact that there is a queue of air carriers on the plane itself, and the first one in it is Aeroflot," Dmitry Tortev said.
Additionally, the prolongation of their service life, including repairs due to stocks and used spare parts from other airliners, played a role in maintaining a high proportion of foreign aircraft, which made it possible to keep them in service longer than planned, said Vladimir Chernov.
As Izvestia wrote, airlines will deconservate old aircraft to maintain passenger traffic in 2026. We are talking not only about domestic but also foreign aircraft. The number of double-deck Boeing 747s flying on regular routes may double in 2026-2027. Thus, Rossiya plans to add two more wide-body liners to the two existing ones, which it inherited after the bankruptcy of Transaero in 2015-2016, industry sources reported.
What are the main issues in fleet renewal?
In September 2024, at the Eastern Economic Forum, Sergey Alexandrovsky, the head of Aeroflot, announced that the Boeing 747 would return to the skies due to the growing demand for air transportation. The first two of the eight aircraft available in the Rossiya fleet were delivered to the wing and were actively used on air routes in 2025.
The backlog in the production of domestic aircraft may lead to a reduction in the fleets of Russian airlines and affect the amount of passenger traffic, which will affect financial results, says Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam Management Management Company.
"Domestic aircraft manufacturers may not fulfill their plans for a number of reasons, primarily due to outdated facilities of enterprises, their shortage, shortage of personnel, lack of equipment, and age—related technologies," the expert said.
As of the end of 2025, the decline in traffic volume was insignificant, from 111 to 108 million passengers, said Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviport agency.
— Of course, with access to fleet renewal and expansion, airlines could increase transportation rather than reduce it. But in general, there are no problems in Russia today either with transport accessibility or with the profitability of the airline business," he noted.
However, according to the founder of the flight safety service RunAvia, aviation expert Andrey Patrakov, even in an updated and shortened form, the program for the production of new aircraft may not be fully implemented due to production difficulties and will not fully cover the shortage of equipment from airlines.
—The An-2 cornhuskers, the main workhorses for communication between the territories of Siberia and the Far East, are on the verge of running out of resources, and it is impossible to modernize the An—24 and An-26 indefinitely," Dmitry Tortev believes.
Probably, this year the government will face the issue of redistributing limited resources — at the same time, mass-producing liners and, most importantly, engines for medium-haul and small vessels is problematic, he believes.
In the short term, the risks associated with fleet renewal remain manageable, as airlines continue to operate foreign aircraft and maintain them in flying condition, Vladimir Chernov believes. In his opinion, maintenance costs are rising over the medium term, and fleet flexibility is decreasing, which for passengers may mean slower cabin upgrades, reduced route network, and pressure on fares.
In the coming years, there is no risk of massive disruptions in air traffic or an acute shortage of aircraft in Russia — the authorities are making sure that all domestic flights are provided, says aviation expert, editor-in-chief of the portal. Avia.Ru Roman Gusarov. According to the expert, international flights could face a shortage of aircraft, as the frequency of Russians' trips abroad is actively growing. However, in this situation, you can use foreign airlines, he added.
In addition, Russia is currently completing work on testing and obtaining type certificates for a range of new domestic aircraft models, for which full import substitution of parts has been achieved in recent years. As a result, in the next year or two, serial production and mass production of our own airliners may be significantly expanded in our country.
According to Dmitry Tortev, in order to increase the efficiency of the development of the domestic aviation industry, it is necessary to organize operational work involving the expert community in three areas: optimizing pricing, maintenance and simplification of operation, as well as achieving economically sound flight performance characteristics of domestic designs comparable to foreign analogues. These support measures, which do not require additional large government costs, could help increase the pace of import substitution to those set by the authorities, the expert concluded.
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