Missed process: Ukraine is once again trying to disrupt peace talks with Russia
Kiev's aggressive actions may again disrupt the Ukrainian settlement process: despite active preparations for the third round of negotiations, the European supervisors of the Ukrainian authorities are clearly not ready to end the conflict. The previous two meetings in Abu Dhabi had been cautiously optimistic, but a day later it was overshadowed by an assassination attempt on a Russian general in Moscow. The main performer has already been detained in the UAE and returned to the Russian Federation. In addition, attempts by Kiev militants to attack targets in Russia continued. All this does little to promote peace, according to both diplomats and military experts.
How is the peace process developing
On February 4 and 5, Abu Dhabi hosted the second round of peace talks on Ukraine. In terms of composition, format and composition of the delegations, he repeated the first meeting, which was held in the UAE capital on January 23-24. The Russian group was led by Igor Kostyukov, chief of the GRU General Staff, the Ukrainian group was led by Budanov, head of the president's office, who was on the list of terrorists and extremists in Russia, and the American group was led by Steve Witkoff, special envoy to the United States, and Jared Kushner, son—in—law of Donald Trump. This time, as the media reported, the focus was primarily on territorial issues and the mechanism of the ceasefire.
Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation Tatiana Moskalkova during the exchange of prisoners of war, February 5
The parties managed to achieve concrete results. For the first time in the last five months, they agreed on a prisoner exchange. With the mediation of the United States and the United Arab Emirates, it passed according to the formula "157 to 157". Both military and civilians were able to return home. All sides assessed the second round as constructive, after which the Kremlin announced another meeting of a similar format.
- There is no exact date yet. But it will be soon," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.
Trilateral talks between representatives of the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, February 4
The interest of both sides in continuing negotiations suggests that some progress has been achieved, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club.
— Apparently, progress is taking place in military-technical issues, possibly related to monitoring compliance with the ceasefire agreement. If the main political problems are resolved, then we will have to return to these technical issues anyway," he told Izvestia.
At the same time, the key contradictions — the issues of territories and security guarantees — have not yet been resolved. Neither side wants to give in, so in the long run, progress here will depend on the situation on the battlefield, changes within Ukraine's political elite, and the flexibility of the Russian side, Kortunov said.
Interestingly, in Europe, the peace talks were described as "intensive." Czech Prime Minister Andrei Babis suggested that the world is approaching the end of hostilities, as well as the lasting security of Ukraine and Europe.
- Now they say that Europe should have talked to Putin earlier. But when Viktor Orban (Hungarian Prime Minister - ed.) went to Zelensky and Putin, everyone condemned him," he recalled.
On February 8, Reuters, citing sources, reported that Ukrainian and American officials discussed a timetable according to which it is planned to prepare a draft peace agreement by March, and in May Kiev should hold a referendum and presidential elections on it.
Negative background for negotiations
Within a few days, the peace process was again seriously tested: on February 6, an assassination attempt was carried out in the Russian capital on the deputy head of the GRU, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev. Despite his injuries, the officer survived and regained consciousness on February 7. The shooter managed to escape and escape the country, but on February 8, the FSB announced that the criminal had been detained in Dubai and extradited to Russia. It turned out to be Lyubomir Korba, a citizen of the Russian Federation of Ukrainian origin. Later, in a personal conversation with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Vladimir Putin thanked him both for his help in holding peace talks and for the cooperation of law enforcement agencies in detaining Korba.
The scene of the attempted murder of the deputy head of the GRU, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev, on February 6
His accomplice, Russian citizen Viktor Vasin, was also detained in Moscow. Another accomplice, Zinaida Serebritskaya, could not be captured — she managed to leave for Ukraine. The official representative of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, Svetlana Petrenko, said that in addition to the articles on attempted murder and illegal arms trafficking, an article on encroachment on the life of a military man appeared in the case.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the assassination attempt on General Alekseev a terrorist act aimed at disrupting the peace process. By doing this, Kiev is trying to influence domestic politics in Russia, acting solely in the interests of European countries, Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador-at-large for crimes committed by the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
— It is almost impossible to separate the Ukrainian side from the European sentiments at the moment. They are supported by Europe, and Zelensky mainly conveys the sentiments that exist today in the European elite. And she openly declares that they do not want any peace process and are determined to disrupt it," he said.
The attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces militants on targets on Russian territory do not contribute to the acceleration of the peace process.
In particular, 80,000 people were left without heat and 3,000 without gas due to the attacks on Belgorod, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov reported. Despite the energy truce, which lasted one week until February 1, in January, residents of the border regions - the DPR, Belgorod, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions - constantly faced blackouts, Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia.
All this can seriously overshadow the settlement process, which is already going very hard, said Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation.
"When the head of the GRU participates in a negotiating group, and an attempt is made on his subordinate in Moscow, this is a landmark background for these negotiations," the expert told Izvestia.
The situation in the free zone
Meanwhile, on the battlefield, the Ukrainian Armed Forces is suffering one serious setback after another. The Russian Defense Ministry announced on February 8 that units of the Sever group had liberated Sidorovka in the Sumy region, developing an offensive in the Kharkiv direction. On the same day, fighters of the Zapad group took control of Glushkovka in the Kharkiv region.
The Russian armed forces are responding to the shelling of Russian cities by Ukrainian formations with strikes on the enemy's energy and transport hubs. In particular, Dagger hypersonic missiles, along with drones, have already destroyed UAV strike factories, ammunition depots and airfields.
On February 7, the Sever group liberated Chugunovka (Kharkiv region) and attacked mechanized brigades, motorized infantry and border guards in Okhrimovka, Kotovka and other areas. Formations in Khoteni and Olshanka were destroyed in Sumy region.
The Zapad group occupied advantageous positions near Monachinovka and Krasny Liman: enemy losses amounted to 180 soldiers, 17 vehicles, two guns, and five warehouses. Yuzhnaya improved its positions near Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, while Dnepr suppressed the mechanized brigades near Magdalinovka.
Within a week, the Center group advanced to Grishino and Svetloy (DPR) and liberated Toretsk and Sukhetskoye (DPR) — 2,560 enemy losses. Vostok took Staroukrainka and Petrovka in the Zaporizhia region, destroying 2,545 Ukrainian soldiers. The air defense intercepted 1,080 drones, HIMARS shells and Neptune missiles.
However, it is impossible to predict the exact timing of the end of the conflict. Ahead, for example, is the liberation of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, while Kiev is receiving massive Western aid, said military expert Vladislav Shurygin.
"Nevertheless, our offensive rate has increased in percentage terms compared to previous years — previously it was about hundreds of square kilometers in six months, now progress is more stable," he told Izvestia. — The situation is much more dramatic for Ukraine: its resources are running out, and it is now in a desperate struggle to recruit. According to calculations, by the end of this year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will face a severe shortage of resources, and in 2027 the situation may collapse.
The situation in the SVR zone is developing in our favor along the entire front, military expert Vasily Dandykin believes. Russian troops are advancing, liberating settlements in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, which is critically important for creating a security zone and protecting the Belgorod region from shelling of peaceful objects.
— In the Zaporozhye area, the successes are most noticeable: the Dnepr and Vostok groups are taking the fortified area near Orekhovka in a pincer grip, being 12-14 km from the outskirts of Zaporozhye. The enemy is evacuating the population and industry, preparing for defense. Intense fighting is expected in the near future," he told Izvestia.
According to the expert, the situation of the enemy in the Donbas at Konstantinovka, the "gates" to Kramatorsk and Druzhkovka, is deplorable. Fighting is taking place in the city center, in the Kramatorsk district, for the Red Estuary and on the outskirts of Slavyansk. Konstantinovka may be released in the coming weeks.
"The enemy does not want to leave Donbass, which means that the issue will be resolved on the battlefield, as the president said," Vasily Dandykin noted. — In the Kherson region— there are positional battles on the islands and in the Dnieper delta, with the destruction of the DRG by the military police and the Russian Guard. A security zone is being formed in the Kursk and Belgorod regions.
The advantage in the air is growing thanks to the troops of unmanned systems: enemy drones of all types are shot down and strikes are launched 50-100 km deep, including group attacks on targets in western Ukraine. This is already affecting the Ukrainian energy sector and the production of UAVs. Meanwhile, the Russian armed forces have begun preparations for the spring-summer campaign: they are destroying American HIMARS, increasing their superiority in drones - now the emphasis is on recruiting contractors to the UAV troops, the expert summed up.
Since the beginning of its military operation, Russian troops have liberated an area of 94,000 square kilometers, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov reported in December.
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