Hot where it's cold: The United States is trying to enter the Arctic agenda
Donald Trump's enduring ambitions for Greenland and statements about Canada's future as the 51st American state have caused a stir in the West. The White House's arguments about the need to protect the rights to self-determination of the former Danish colony and to stop threats from Russia and China are difficult to accept among US allies. Especially when Washington allows the use of harsh tools for these purposes. Meanwhile, Canada and Greenland have one thing in common that will be a huge advantage in the coming years — access to the resource-rich Arctic region. In this regard, the route of the Northwest Passage is increasingly being recalled in the United States. Izvestia tells us what it is and whether it will be able to compete with the Northern Sea Route.
The future is coming
The White House is placing an unprecedented high stake on the Arctic. The region is mentioned 14 times in the recently published National Security Strategy of the United States.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump's stated goals of "protecting the region from Russian and Chinese ships" and the creation of the Golden Dome missile defense system, which so far exists only on paper and, according to many experts, does not justify the huge costs, force us to talk not so much about defense goals as about logistics and trade routes.
At the same time, the US National Security Service states that Russia is technologically and economically lagging behind in Arctic development. Moreover, Washington is worried about Chinese ambitions in the region. In 2018, China introduced the concept of the Northern Silk Road and declared itself an Arctic power.
Washington is seriously concerned about the success of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) project. This route, which is already in operation, halves the travel time between Europe and East Asia compared to traditional logistics via the Suez Canal.
In this regard, experts recall the Northwest Passage project, a route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the waters of the Canadian Arctic archipelago.
The Arctic port of federal importance on the route of the Northern Sea Route
The Northwest Passage, starting just between Canada and Greenland and passing through Canada and Alaska, could potentially shorten the distance by almost 3,500 nautical miles (about 7 thousand km) on the shipping routes that currently pass through the Panama Canal.
Attempts to follow the ice-covered route have been made since the 16th century, but for the first time it was only Roald Amundsen who succeeded at the beginning of the last century. Nevertheless, the NWFP remained a dangerous and undeveloped route until recently. However, global climate change may change the usual state of affairs.
The ice is melting between us
Recent studies show that since 1979, the Arctic, like the waters of the Arctic Ocean, has been warming four times faster than the rest of the planet, and in some regions — seven times. From 2000 to 2023, glaciation centers in the Arctic lost between 3 and 9%. According to AANI experts, in the waters of the Arctic seas along which the Northern Sea Route runs, the area occupied by ice in September has been decreasing since 1996 and has decreased eightfold over the years.
It should be noted that, according to Western experts, accurate data on the dynamics of this process can only be obtained through research conducted at Russian polar stations. However, after the suspension of Russia's membership in the Arctic Council, the exchange of such information has been frozen.
Dates of uncertain accuracy
However, with regard to the Northwest Passage, the prospect of commercial development looks much less optimistic than in the case of the Northern Sea Route. Global climate change is opening up some routes and closing others due to the migration of ice. Experts disagree on the possibilities of shipping in this region in the coming years.
In addition, despite the rapid economic development (due to the discovery of diamond deposits) in recent decades, Northern Canada remains sparsely populated and has virtually no necessary infrastructure.
Stop car
But that's hardly half the problem. The main thing is that Americans have nothing with which to conquer the Arctic. At the moment, the United States has three vessels that can be called icebreakers. One of them, Polar Star, was built in 1976, and another, Storis, was converted from a supply vessel.
Polar Star Icebreaker
In 2024, the Biden administration signed a contract with Canada and Finland to build six icebreakers. For comparison, Russia has 43 such ships, eight of which are nuclear—powered ships and another 14 are planned to be launched by 2030. This is probably why Trump announced in March last year the goal of building 48 icebreakers.
An alternative in Moscow
Moreover, against the background of the crisis in relations with Ottawa, the US president noted that his country would be able to achieve this exorbitant figure even without the help of its neighbors, although Canada not only significantly outnumbers the United States in the number of ships, but also, unlike them, has the necessary competencies.
It was the "Arctic perspective" (or lack thereof) and access to resources and logistics that became the reason for Trump's geopolitical ambitions towards Canada.
"All of a sudden, Canada wanted a piece of the pie," Trump said in the midst of the 51st state scandal.
Moreover, now in Canada they are talking about "icebreaker diplomacy" or the leverage that the Maple Leaf Country has due to its geography. In this light, Ottawa's ostentatious rapprochement with Beijing looks much more significant and unpleasant for Trump.
Preventing the presence of the main competitor in a key region is a designated priority of the White House. However, in the current circumstances, the only way to protect potential assets is to overcome the gap "in a straight line", even if this means putting pressure on allies. Nevertheless, without a technological breakthrough and huge investments, these goals will remain unattainable.
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