Musk merged SpaceX and xAI before the IPO and became the first person with a fortune of $800 billion. What could possibly go wrong

Elon Musk became the first person in history whose fortune exceeded $ 800 billion, after his company SpaceX merged with his own xAI. According to Forbes estimates, the deal increased the entrepreneur's fortune by $84 billion. The combined company was valued at $1.25 trillion, and Musk owns 43% of its shares. The deal has become one of the most discussed in the corporate history of the United States. However, this story has become a point of uncertainty for the market. Izvestia was looking into whether xAI would be SpaceX's new growth engine or turn out to be an expensive ballast before the upcoming IPO.

Why merge the companies?

- At the end of January, it became known from unofficial sources that Elon Musk was looking for ways to consolidate his empire before SpaceX went public. The entrepreneur considered the possibility of merging the space business with Tesla Inc. or with the company xAI, which deals with artificial intelligence. Different synergy options would help him realize his ambitious vision of putting data centers in space, which would benefit xAI. At the same time, Tesla would help use solar energy to operate these centers, and SpaceX rockets could theoretically deliver Tesla robots to the Moon and Mars.

- In February, it became known about the decision to merge SpaceX and xAI. Rockets, satellites, the X platform (formerly Twitter), and the Grok AI chatbot have combined under one roof to create an expensive AI infrastructure in orbit. Analysts believe that the merger could also strengthen SpaceX's position in concluding major defense contracts at the Pentagon, which is actively implementing artificial intelligence.

- The deal raises the total capitalization estimate of the combined company to $1.25 trillion (SpaceX — $1 trillion + xAI — $250 billion), making it more interesting for investors and exchanges, which is especially important on the eve of the IPO. The 1.25 trillion figure is used as a guideline for preparing for the upcoming initial public offering and for internal calculations of the value of securities before listing. It is easier for investors to sell a single platform story — a business that simultaneously provides access to orbit, has a global data network, and develops artificial intelligence - than to convince the market individually of the value of the rocket business and the justification for participating in a risky AI race.

- The initial placement can be held in June, timed to coincide with Musk's birthday and the parade of planets. It is assumed that through the IPO, SpaceX will raise $30-$50 billion with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion. This would be the largest placement ever. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley are likely to play key roles in the company's stock offering.

- Robinhood is also trying to get the right to place a part of SpaceX shares. It is an American brokerage company known for attracting millions of private investors to trading on the stock market. Robinhood is often referred to as a "youth broker": it allows you to trade instruments without fees through a mobile application. The company wants to give its customers the opportunity to buy shares at the price agreed upon in the IPO, rather than the market price. This initiative annoys large banks, because they are the ones who traditionally deal with the retail distribution of shares in IPOs. Robinhood sees this as an opportunity to strengthen its position as a key channel for ordinary traders to participate in major public offerings.

- At the same time, SpaceX is not going to limit itself to the American capital base. The company has already held pitching sessions with banks from other regions, including Europe. They may also be involved in an IPO.

What could affect the IPO

- With a capitalization of about $1-1.5 trillion, the sale of shares for $30-50 billion means that about 2-4% of the company will be brought to the market. This structure is typical for super—large placements - the founders and early investors retain control, and the public market gets a limited share.

- According to some estimates, the internal estimated value of the conditional share of the combined SpaceX–xAI structure is about $526. This is not an exchange price or a promise for investors, but an internal estimated value derived from a private valuation of the company. This guideline is used by banks and shareholders as a base point for negotiations, calculation of exchange coefficients and preparation of IPO documents. The final exchange price will be different, which one will become clear only in the process of forming the order book and coordinating with regulators. If demand turns out to be high and the market believes in the story of SpaceX + xAI, the company's final valuation could be closer to $1.5 trillion.

- The main danger for an IPO is that the market will read the merger of companies as shifting the financial risks of xAI onto the shoulders of SpaceX. The fact is that xAI is not making a profit yet (in the third quarter of 2025, the loss was $ 1.46 billion), participating in an extremely capital-intensive AI race. If investors consider that the merger of SpaceX and xAI is not a way to make money, but a way to transfer the losses and expenses of the AI company to a safer roof, the reaction will be negative. This can lead to the disappearance of the so—called Musk premium and turn into a conglomerate discount - when a company costs less not because of bad products, but because of distrust of capital allocation and mixing businesses with different risk profiles.

- xAI already requires huge investments, and "synergy" — the real return on joint projects with SpaceX — may be too delayed in time. In this regard, SpaceX's cooperation with federal agencies can have a negative effect: the company is a strategic contractor for the United States national security and defense. This means that SpaceX is attracting increased regulatory attention, which can slow down decision—making, increase costs and create uncertainty - and the market, especially the public one, does not like such things. Stock market investors usually want to see a clear path to income in the foreseeable future. If it is not there, the stock price goes down.

What is important after the initial placement

- Another important layer to understand is what will happen to the stock price immediately after the IPO. The cost will strongly depend not only on the fundamentals, but also on whether SpaceX will be able to achieve rapid inclusion in large indexes — this would automatically create demand from ETFs and passive funds. Sources say that representatives of SpaceX are already negotiating with leading index providers, including Nasdaq, about accelerated inclusion in their membership. This will allow access to retail and institutional capital and help maintain the price.

- Another important story for any mega—acquisitions is the lockup period, during which those who had shares before the IPO cannot sell them after the company goes public. While the lockup is in effect, the supply of securities is artificially limited. There are few shares in free circulation, but there is a lot of interest — the price is holding up. But on the day of the end of the lockup, the ban is lifted, and early investors have the opportunity to sell large packages. If the securities are initially distributed among a narrow circle of investors, and there is no rapid flow of demand (for example, through indexes), then after the lockup, the price may experience pressure. For a story worth $1-1.5 trillion, this may be more important than any presentation: a trillion-dollar estimate is based not on words, but on steady demand and predictable corporate procedures.