Danger system: Bern discussed with Moscow the OSCE's participation in the Ukrainian settlement

The crisis of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict became the main topics of talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, his Swiss counterpart Ignazio Cassis and OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu on February 5-6. Russian Deputy Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia that what was happening in Ukraine could have been prevented in 2021, when Russia put forward proposals to the West on security guarantees. According to him, the situation has worsened in four years, and NATO has increased its presence on the eastern flank. Against the background of the crisis of the European security system, the OSCE is trying to get involved in the Ukrainian settlement, but the organization has long discredited itself in the eyes of Moscow.

The crisis of the OSCE and the security system in Europe

The visit of Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis and OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu has become a unique event for diplomacy in recent years: for the first time since the beginning of its work, two top OSCE leaders visited Russia at once. Bern took over as chairman of the organization in January.

Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis (right) and OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Sergey Guneev

The talks between Kassis and Sinirlioglu with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov lasted almost two hours, while informal discussions began on February 5. Russia has once again raised the issue of the crisis of the organization, which, according to Lavrov, has approached a "real threat of self-destruction." The Russian Foreign Minister recalled that since 2022, almost the entire OSCE agenda (with the rarest exceptions) has been "Ukrainized."

— They explained in detail that in all three "baskets" of OSCE activities — military-political, economic, humanitarian — there is complete stagnation or Ukrainization. At the same time, the OSCE is completely inactive, despite the fact that there are institutions of special representatives responsible for the rights of national minorities, for freedom of the media and for human rights," Lavrov said.

Photo: Global Look Press/Nina Liashonok

The Russian minister also drew attention to the fact that in the West they prefer to hush up the events that led to the Ukrainian crisis, in particular the coup d'etat in February 2014. Then, in violation of the agreement guaranteed by Germany, France and Poland, the putschists seized administrative buildings and announced the removal of Viktor Yanukovych from the presidency. "The story begins where it is convenient for our Western colleagues," Lavrov said.

In December 2021, Russia submitted drafts of the treaty on security guarantees and the agreement on security measures between Russia and NATO countries. The alliance was unenthusiastic about these initiatives, but now Moscow is being blamed for the escalation of the conflict.

—If our proposals of 2021 had been implemented and seriously considered by the West, of course, they would have significantly improved the situation in Europe and would have avoided the round of confrontation that occurred after that as a result of targeted actions by the West," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia.

However, in recent years, NATO's presence near Russia's borders has significantly expanded, while the West has not yet abandoned the idea of accepting Ukraine into the alliance.

— The eastern flank of NATO is saturated with new weapons systems. Groups at the brigade level, not battalion level, are already stationed there on a permanent basis, and headquarters are being set up. Sweden and Finland joined NATO. Let me remind you that our proposals also provided for the termination of NATO's eastward expansion," Grushko said.

The Ukrainian settlement and dialogue with the Russian Federation

However, the Swiss side is unlikely to have arrived in Moscow to hear the unpleasant truth about the OSCE's problems and the crisis of the European security system again. Immediately after the meeting, Kassis left the Reception House of the Russian Foreign Ministry, leaving Russian journalists without comment. Later, he said on social media that he had discussed the need for dialogue on Ukraine and the OSCE's role in helping resolve the conflict.

At the last meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM) in December, Kassis noted that the OSCE could monitor a possible truce. Later, he clarified that in the short term, it is capable of deploying several dozen employees who could also monitor the line of demarcation and the course of the elections.

"Switzerland can raise this issue at the talks, but there will be no OSCE mission in Ukraine," a source familiar with the situation told Izvestia.

Russia has repeatedly pointed out that the OSCE is biased. Moscow previously noted that the special monitoring mission, which operated in 2014-2022, grossly violated its authority by secretly transmitting data on the location of LPR and DPR fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It was not uncommon for the mission to deliberately ignore the presence of the Ukrainian military in the cities of Donbass.

The Ukrainian settlement is currently being seriously discussed at the Abu Dhabi site. On February 5, the second trilateral meeting of the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine on security issues ended, following which the parties agreed on a new prisoner exchange under the "157 for 157" formula. Moscow and Kiev have returned both military and civilians to each other. In addition, Russia and the United States agreed to resume the line of operational contacts between the military of the two countries. The participants described the talks as constructive and announced new contacts in the coming weeks.

As for the representatives of Europe, they are not directly involved in the Ukrainian settlement. And while Switzerland, along with other small European countries — Hungary and Slovakia — has maintained a dialogue with Russia, large states — Great Britain, Germany and France — are still distancing themselves. They are stepping up military assistance to Ukraine and, together with the European Commission, are preparing a new package of sanctions, which may be approved on February 24 — the fourth anniversary of its independence.

It is reported that the new restrictions may include a ban on maintenance and other services for LNG tankers and icebreakers, the blacklisting of 20 Russian regional banks, 43 oil tankers, a ban on buying metals, chemicals and critical minerals worth €570 million from the Russian Federation, and other restrictions.

At the same time, reports have recently begun to appear in the Western press about the possibility of appointing an EU special envoy for Ukraine to establish contacts with Moscow. According to the Italian newspaper Repubblica, former Finnish President Sauli Niinisto may become one. Interestingly, the idea of appointing such a representative was supported in the Baltic States, in particular by Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silinja and Estonian President Alar Karis. The leaders of Germany, Italy, and France have previously spoken about contacts with the Russian Federation. The media reported that a diplomatic adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron visited Moscow. In Paris, the reports were neither confirmed nor denied.

Polish political scientist Mateusz Piskorski believes that Europe is beginning to seriously consider the need to restore dialogue with Russia.

— Firstly, there is a certain fatigue from the Ukrainian conflict and from the involvement of Europe in it. Secondly, there is an economic factor here: in many countries of the region, there is a growing understanding that the continuation of the current sanctions regime will lead to a new collapse of the European economy," he told Izvestia.

The third factor is that the US administration is actively communicating with Russia. Donald Trump and his team are negotiating with the Russian Federation, and this accelerates the decision that it is necessary to restore ties with Moscow. The expert believes that distrust of Trump is growing in the EU and fears that Washington will conclude a deal with Moscow on Ukraine without taking into account the positions of European countries.