The enemy of my enemy: Two opposing alliances are forming in the Middle East
In the Middle East, two opposing blocs began to form from countries that had previously been considered close allies. While Turkey is moving closer to Saudi Arabia, its closest partner, Azerbaijan, which previously strengthened its strategic partnership with Ankara's enemy, Israel, is now actively moving closer to the UAE, which has serious friction with Riyadh over Yemen. Against this background, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is seriously concerned about how much the Egyptian army has grown, which signed a military cooperation agreement with the Republic of Turkey the day before. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Sworn friends
In early February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid visits to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, during which he signed a package of important military agreements. He agreed on cooperation between Riyadh and Ankara in the field of defense industry. According to the head of state, we are talking about the possibility of joint investments with Saudi Arabia in the development of the Turkish KAAN fighter.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a visit to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 3
The Turkish leader stressed that Riyadh occupies a "special place" for Ankara in the field of cooperation in the field of defense industry, transport, healthcare and investments. Erdogan added that there is great potential for cooperation between the countries related to major international events, including Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup, as well as the growing tourist flow from Saudi Arabia to Turkey.
Riyadh and Ankara, previously considered its main rival for influence over Sunni Muslims in the world, have been moving closer since 2015. At that time, the parties seriously questioned the reliability of the American partnership and felt the need to establish their own military-political cooperation. With the money of the Saudis, the Turks began to buy weapons, which they then supplied to their allies in the Free Syrian Army, and Saudi planes based at the Turkish Incirlik airbase bombed the positions of ISIS militants (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation).
After that, cooperation between the countries continued in Yemen, Somalia and Sudan. In early January of this year, Ankara hosted the first ever joint meeting of officers of the Saudi Arabian Navy and the Turkish Republic. The Turkish authorities have repeatedly made it clear that although the country is trying to balance between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the position of Riyadh is much closer to it.
Signed a military agreement
Speaking at a joint press conference with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo, Erdogan said that the parties are making joint efforts to ensure lasting peace and stability in the Gaza Strip and Libya.
He also added that Ankara is committed to a ceasefire in Sudan, followed by the establishment of sustainable peace in that country, and also pointed out the importance of ensuring stability in Syria for the region, welcoming the statements of the Egyptian authorities in support of Syrian unity.
According to Erdogan, Egypt is one of Turkey's largest trading partners in Africa and the parties plan to increase the volume of bilateral trade with Egypt from the current $8-9 billion to 15 billion.
The Turkish leader also once again criticized Israel, calling Israel's decision to recognize Somaliland "unacceptable and encroaching on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia."
Over the past year and a half, relations between Ankara and Cairo have intensified. The parties held meetings at the level of ministers and other high-ranking politicians, and the leaders of the two countries signed a set of documents, the main of which was an agreement in the military sphere.
Now, according to Erdogan, Turkey, together with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, intend to actively participate in regional diplomatic processes, especially concerning Gaza and ensuring stability in the Middle East as a whole.
Netanyahu is not sitting idly by
Against this background, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concern about the active strengthening of the Egyptian army, the Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv reported. At a meeting with parliamentarians, he urged not to allow a too serious strengthening of the military potential of the neighboring country.
Netanyahu has expressed such concerns about Cairo before. In September last year, as the American media wrote, the Israeli Prime Minister asked the US authorities to put pressure on Egypt, considering that Cairo "has taken several steps in the Sinai Peninsula, which are a serious violation of the peace treaty signed in 1979, creating military infrastructure on the peninsula," including one "that can be used in for offensive purposes."
In particular, it was claimed that the Egyptians had increased the length of the runways at their air bases and built underground facilities that could be used to store missiles. Cairo denied these allegations, stressing that the military presence in Sinai is necessary primarily to protect the Egyptian borders, prevent terrorist attacks and curb the activities of smugglers.
While Turkey is strengthening allied relations with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Israel is counting on a bloc with the participation of Azerbaijan and the UAE.
Azerbaijan is the only country in the world that is both Turkey's closest ally and one of Israel's two main allies after the United States. As President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly noted, "any misunderstanding between these two countries worries Baku," which is why the head of state himself has repeatedly acted as a mediator in the reconciliation of Ankara and West Jerusalem and helped to bring the positions of the parties closer.
There are historical ties between Israel and Azerbaijan, and the Jewish diaspora of 30,000 people has been living in Azerbaijan for many years. Currently, Baku has become an important guarantor of Israel's energy security: about 40-50% of the oil it buys is supplied via the Baku—Tbilisi—Ceyhan oil pipeline. Israel, in turn, supplies high technologies and military equipment to Azerbaijan.
Active rapprochement with the UAE
At the same time, Baku's strategic partnership with Abu Dhabi is developing, which is considered Israel's main strategic partner in the Middle East. On February 3, the joint military exercises "Peace Shield 2026" with the participation of the military of Azerbaijan and the UAE ended. Previously unused drones and ground-based systems participated in the maneuvers.
The rapprochement between the UAE and Israel in the defense sector became possible after the signing of the Abraham Agreements in 2020, which normalized relations between the countries and paved the way for economic and technological cooperation. The parties are actively developing partnerships in such sectors as cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and unmanned systems. Economic ties between the two countries remain quite strong.
Early last year, EDGE, the largest government-owned arms manufacturer in the UAE, acquired a 30% stake in the Israeli company ThirdEye Systems, specializing in the development of artificial intelligence technologies and autonomous security systems.
Cooperation with Israel gives the UAE access to advanced military technologies that were previously unavailable to Arab states. Against the background of increased cooperation between the two countries, media reports have appeared in recent years that the Israelis, with the support of the UAE, were considering the possibility of establishing an intelligence base on Socotra Island, located at the entrance to the Red Sea, 400 km south of Yemen, which clearly contradicts the interests of Saudi Arabia.
"Over the past 20 years, Azerbaijan and Israel have been able to create unique relations, and the UAE is one of Israel's main allies in the region, so the emergence of this alliance between the three sides is quite expected and natural," a source close to the Turkish Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
According to him, Turkey is not against strengthening Azerbaijan's ties with both Israel and the UAE. "Each of these areas has its own dynamics, Ankara is not against the fact that Baku is strengthening its security. Besides, Azerbaijan will not use these alliances to harm Turkey in any way, and this is the main thing," the source concluded.
They understand the possibilities and the red lines
Kamran Hasanov, Doctor of Political Science at the University of Salzburg, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the formation of new alliances in the Middle East is justified by both global and regional processes. Globally, we are talking about the fact that the old world order is collapsing, old agreements are no longer valid, and states are beginning to look for new ways to ensure their security.
— For a long time, they relied on the American shield for security in the Middle East. But given that the United States does not always protect its allies, as was the case with Qatar, which was attacked by Israel, it became clear that the Americans would not cover up, the expert explained.
The expert added that at that moment Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with Pakistan. Subsequently, there was talk that Turkey might join this agreement in the near future.
— Ankara initially had close relations with Islamabad, and it had strained relations with Riyadh due to competition in Libya, but now the positions of the parties coincide on Sudan. At the same time, there is another wave of competition between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, due to the weakening of Iran's position in the region, the analyst said.
Hasanov said that now countries no longer see Iran as the same threat as before, as it was, for example, during the civil war in Syria.
— Countries have seen new enemies. In particular, Israel notes that Turkey has strengthened, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which used to fight together against Iran, have begun to compete. In order to contain each other, Israel is forming a bloc with the Emirates, and Turkey is forming a bloc with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Qatar may also join this alliance," the political scientist added.
According to the interlocutor, Turkey and Pakistan, as Azerbaijan's allies, would like to see Baku in their alliance.
— However, it is difficult to imagine that Azerbaijan will participate in any anti-Israeli actions of this alliance. But at the same time, Azerbaijan is also unlikely to participate on the side of Israel against its allies Turkey and Pakistan, the expert believes.
The expert noted that Baku may join the alliance to strengthen its positions, while there will be a certain understanding of the possibilities and red lines of this alliance.
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