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- It will come out with a tank: stock prices for gasoline have increased by 7 since the beginning of the year%
It will come out with a tank: stock prices for gasoline have increased by 7 since the beginning of the year%
Since the beginning of the year, the exchange price of the AI-92 has increased by 7.3%. Experts attribute this to a change in the VAT rate, the lifting of the export ban and a reduction in payments to oil companies. According to Izvestia's interlocutors, the risk of further price increases remains against the background of reduced incentives for manufacturers with a negative or zero damper. At the same time, the price increase may be restrained by increased control from the Federal Antimonopoly Service, which has recently stepped up supervision of oil companies. About the prospects of the fuel market — in the material of Izvestia.
How has the fuel market changed since the beginning of the year
Since the beginning of the year, the cost of motor fuel has been increasing both in retail and wholesale. According to the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, prices for AI-92 increased by 7.3%, from 54.03 thousand rubles per 1 ton on December 30, 2025 to 57.98 thousand for the same volume on February 6, 2026. AI-95 rose in price by 1.7%, from 58.72 thousand rubles to 59.73 thousand per 1 ton. According to the managing partner of VMT Consult, this difference is due, among other things, to the fact that 92nd gasoline is in high demand than 95th.
The national average price of this fuel increased by 10.2% in 2025, AI-92 went up by 10.64%, AI-95 — by 10.03%, diesel fuel — by 7.07%. And this is despite the December statement by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak that by the end of last year, inflation in Russia would be 6%.
The cost of gasoline at gas stations in Russia, according to Rosstat, continues to grow. From January 27 to February 2, it increased by an average of 0.11%. The growth was 0.01% in the previous week, and 0.12% a week earlier.
Gasoline has increased in price by 1.42% since the beginning of the year. The overall inflation rate for the specified period reached 2.11%.
The average price tag for this fuel in the country by the end of the reporting period was 65.65 rubles per liter, an increase of 0.18 rubles. So, 92nd can now be bought on average for 62.1 rubles, 95th — for 67.55.
On February 3, Alexander Novak called the situation in the fuel market stable. According to him, "gasoline surpluses" have formed in the domestic market.
The Ministry of Energy told Izvestia that "favorable price conditions in wholesale segments, while saturating regional markets and implementing government measures, ensured price stabilization in independent gas station networks and improved the competitive environment in the fuel market."
They recalled that on January 31, the government extended for six months a temporary ban on the export of gasoline and diesel for non-producers in order to eliminate the risk of speculative price increases in the domestic market.
— Export restrictions do not apply to direct producers of petroleum products, which makes it possible to ensure uniform utilization of production capacities of oil companies, including during periods of low demand. The decision is aimed at maintaining a stable situation in the domestic fuel market. Currently, Russia has sufficient fuel reserves, including winter and Arctic diesel, and there have been no disruptions to the supply of the regions," the press service explained.
The ministry also stressed that the Ministry of Energy interacts with the regions on a daily basis and conducts systematic work to ensure stable supplies of light petroleum products to consumers. Taking into account the emerging balance of supply and demand, the necessary regulatory measures will be taken, they added.
Nevertheless, the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) began unscheduled inspections of fuel market participants, suspecting the companies of a cartel that could lead to an increase in stock prices for petroleum products. The agency announced this in its Telegram channel.
The FAS told Izvestia that the service was conducting unscheduled inspections of fuel market participants. Their term is not more than one month from the date of the start of the meeting, but it can be extended by two months.
— The Service examines all the factual circumstances. In this regard, the FAS does not comment on the progress of the audit until the procedural decision is made," the agency noted.
Izvestia has sent inquiries to all major oil and gas companies.
Why are fuel prices rising?
Among the reasons for the increase in the cost of gasoline, experts cite a change in the VAT rate, the lifting of the export ban and a reduction in payments to oil companies.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, since the end of December, oil companies have raised prices at gas stations by one ruble to recoup the VAT increase. In addition, oil companies are currently concerned about a decrease in damping payments, she noted.
As Izvestia wrote, the companies asked the government to make changes to the damper calculation formula. In their opinion, an increase in the discount on Russian oil may lead to negative payments. By the end of December, the oil companies received 16.9 billion rubles. A month earlier, the volume of transfers was higher: in December, the amount of payments for November reached 57.8 billion rubles.
According to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, in December the damping component entered the negative zone, which was due to an increase in the discount on Urals oil, and the export alternative turned out to be lower than the established wholesale selling price in the domestic market.
"In other words, trading on the domestic market turned out to be more profitable, and based on the calculation formulas, the state had no obligations to pay the difference between the export and domestic prices," the expert noted.
At the same time, according to her, by the end of December, the oil workers received deductions from the budget in connection with the recalculation of the gasoline damper for September 2025, for which payments were amended in the fall to the Tax Code.
According to Izvestia's source in the industry, no decision has been made yet to change the damping mechanism.
In addition, as Ekaterina Kosareva recalled, at the end of January, the government prematurely lifted the ban on gasoline exports for manufacturers.
As noted by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, if the decision to resume fuel exports from February 1 had not been made, Russia would have had to reduce refining volumes.
— The situation with the balance of supply and demand has stabilized. Moreover, we have surpluses. If earlier we closed the market in order to ensure saturation of the domestic market, today, if we do not open the markets to products from major manufacturers, not resellers, this may lead to overstocking and the need to reduce refining volumes," the Deputy Prime Minister noted.
Nevertheless, according to Ekaterina Kosareva, amid the news of the lifting of the ban, market participants hedged the risks of fuel shortages in connection with possible attacks on the country's oil refining structure.
What to expect from the market next
The risk of further growth in stock prices remains: with a negative or zero dampener, companies and the market as a whole have a reduced motivation to hold wholesale, and tension quickly manifests itself on the stock exchange, especially against the background of refinery repairs and a seasonal revival in demand, says Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner of Kasatkin Consulting.
— But the "crackdown" will be limited: the FAS has already strengthened control and is sending a signal through inspections that sudden movements and possible coordinated actions will be severely suppressed. Therefore, limited growth and volatility of wholesale prices are possible," the expert noted.
Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government, stressed that fuel prices in the domestic market and its local shortage are a systemic problem that no longer even depends on individual companies or on the actions of the Federal Antimonopoly Service.
— Gasoline shortages occur due to increased demand for it, especially in the spring and summer season, logistical difficulties, and due to non-economic factors such as attacks on domestic refineries. In the presence of such a range of factors, it would be clearly unnecessary to suspect the collusion of WINK (large oil companies)," he noted.
According to him, the synchronicity of price increases is a consequence of the general market situation, and not of any agreements. And, in the end, an increase in price leads to a decrease and even zeroing of the damper, which is clearly not in the interests of WINK.
Therefore, in his opinion, fuel prices in wholesale and retail will, of course, increase by spring and summer. Dmitry Kasatkin agrees with his colleague.
"By spring, the wholesale market is likely to remain in a zone of increased nervousness: if repairs and demand growth coincide, local peaks and further slow growth in quotations are possible," he noted.
As for the change in the damper mechanism, the expert does not expect "rapid radical changes in the formula." In his opinion, a set of targeted measures is more likely — strengthening exchange discipline and control, setting mandatory volumes or restrictions, and only, if necessary, more subtle adjustments to the parameters in order to prevent systemic bias, without risks to the budget.
Valery Andrianov believes that a damper is "a fire measure that allows you to maintain the profitability of oil refining, without turning it into a totally unprofitable one for companies."
— As a result, incorrect adjustment of the damper, its insufficient size, can lead to a reduction in fuel production. Indeed, in the current conditions, against the background of declining oil industry revenues from oil exports due to sanctions and an increasing discount, their opportunities to "sponsor" potentially unprofitable refining are significantly reduced," he said.
Ekaterina Kosareva also believes that we should not expect a decrease in the growth rate of fuel costs in the near future. At the same time, in her opinion, the authorities are unlikely to change the damper formula, but they will have to find a compromise in dialogue with oil companies, for example, to impose a moratorium on payments to the budget for oil companies.
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