Bitcoin continued to fall for no fundamental reason. What does this mean for an investor

After the October surge, the bitcoin exchange rate entered the phase of the longest decline since 2018. It is currently trading at $76,000, having lost more than 19% of its value in a month and almost 22% in a year. At the same time, the drop in the price of the crypto asset did not lead to a surge in consumer interest. Market behavior has once again raised the question of whether bitcoin has fundamental value, especially against the background of the development of the crypto infrastructure in Russia. Izvestia investigated why the crypto market has become a platform for trading expectations and what this means for private investors.

What's going on with Bitcoin

At the auction last weekend, bitcoin fell below $ 76 thousand — the cryptocurrency fell by 40% compared to the peak values of 2025 and returned to levels last seen after the introduction of duties by US President Donald Trump on "Liberation Day" in early April. This time, there was no systemic shock, just a drop in demand and a decrease in liquidity. According to Bloomberg, bitcoin has not reacted to either the geopolitical stress or the weakness of the dollar. Even during the sharp fluctuations in gold and silver prices in recent weeks, the dynamics of the cryptocurrency exchange rate has not changed. In addition, analysts noticed that the decrease in the value of the asset did not cause a surge in consumer activity. Experts believe that it may take another six to nine months before a noticeable recovery begins, and investors should not wait another three years for new highs.

What explains the behavior of the crypt

- The crypt does not behave like a classic financial asset. Unlike bonds, stocks of companies with cash flow, or commodity contracts, where there is some fundamental logic (interest rates, profits, stocks), cryptocurrencies are based on expectations and faith. There is no clear opinion on why bitcoin is rising or falling. Many people try to explain the movements of cryptocurrencies with news and macroeconomics. But in practice, this often doesn't work. The price can fall for weeks without any bad news at all.

- In large markets, a significant part of trading is conducted not by people, but by algorithms. These are programs that trade according to predefined rules. Algorithms do not think, but follow instructions, for example, like this: if the price is falling, then the trend is down, you need to sell. Stop losses are built into the algorithms - if the price of an asset has reached a set level, then its automatic sale begins. This pushes the price down, new stop losses are triggered, and the price is still falling. Algorithms often trade not one asset, but a bundle, for example, gold-silver, wheat-corn. If one asset loses a lot in value, the algorithm concludes that the second one will follow its example, and it should also be disposed of. As a result, the collapse of one market automatically leads to another.

- In crypto, stop losses are tighter and there is no fundamental, justified price - one that reflects the real value of the asset without speculation. That is, in fact, no one knows why bitcoin should cost that much. Therefore, there is also no understanding of where growth or decline should stop. This makes the market unpredictable — it can fall simply because it is already falling, obeying the internal mechanics of trading.

- The signal of weakening the stability of the crypto market was the changes in the structure of reserves of Tether, the largest provider of crypto liquidity. According to the company, at the end of September 2025, its total assets amounted to about $181 billion with approximately $174 billion in liabilities. The excess capital (safety margin) is about $6.8 billion, which is about 3.9% of the liabilities. For comparison, the buffer was closer to 5% a year earlier. That is, the margin of stability has decreased.

- In the structure of Tether's reserves in September, about $12.9 billion was in gold and about $10 billion in bitcoin. This meant that about $23 billion of reserves were placed in assets with market volatility. In January, it became known that the crypto giant holds about $24 billion in gold — the share of precious metals in reserves has almost doubled (to 13%). At the same time, the price of bitcoin dropped from $110,000 in September to $80,000, which reduces the share of bitcoin in reserves to about 4%. This is significant — one of the largest issuers of crypto market liquidity demonstrates with its balance sheet that it is betting not on bitcoin, but on gold. In addition, with a small capital buffer, the share of assets subject to market fluctuations shows that the stability of the structure is questionable. With such an introduction, we can say that the cryptocurrency system is losing its anchor.

Is it worth entering the crypto market

- This logic works not only in Western markets, but also in Russian. The crypt is increasingly being used not for investment, but for price trading. In 2026, the Moscow Stock Exchange plans to launch several new crypto indexes at once — for Solana, Ripple and Tron — as well as futures linked to these indexes. In addition, the launch of perpetual futures on Bitcoin and Ethereum is being discussed. Futures and indexes are generally not needed by long-term investors. They are needed by those who make money on price fluctuations. Any futures is an opportunity to quickly build up a position, open shorts and strengthen the movement without owning the underlying asset. The more such tools there are, the less price is related to "value", and the more it depends on the internal mechanics of the market.

- It is important to understand that the launch of cryptocurrency futures does not make the asset more stable. It only adds another layer of derivatives for trading expectations — betting on where the price will go. It's not about "faith in the crypt", it's about the business model: movement = income.

- It turns out a paradoxical but logical picture: on the one hand, the infrastructure is actively developing derivatives, indices and futures, strengthening the speculative circuit (the more bets on growth and decline, the more trades, commissions and dynamics), on the other — system players like Tether, which is important to maintain stability — instead of increasing the share of the crypt they invest in classic hard assets — gold (why the fall in the value of this precious metal should not be considered as a burst bubble, we wrote here).

- Hence the conclusion: the crypto market is based not on the economic foundation typical of traditional markets — company profits, monetary policy, and macroeconomic indicators — but on trading mechanics and trust. As long as there is liquidity, turnover, and faith, the system works. But the key players themselves are not ready to hold significant amounts in the crypt, and this is the most honest signal about the nature of the market: there is nothing to rely on for long. In such an environment, the price is shaped not by investment demand, but by trading activity. In fact, cryptotrading is a chain of reactions of traders and algorithms that enhance price movement.

- Therefore, it is important not to confuse trade and investment here. If you want to enter the crypt, you need to understand that this is a market of expectations. You can earn money here, but you can't rely on predictability and a fair price — there simply isn't one. This is a game with high volatility and long periods when the market can go against the players simply because that's how the mechanics work. The crypt can be a tool, an experience, even a part of a portfolio, but not its basis. The basis for a Russian investor today is control over liquidity, simplicity of structure, absence of dependence on one scenario and the ability to sleep peacefully when the market is noisy.

The abstracts contained in the text are not an investment recommendation, but an editorial opinion.