Risky merger: why Musk combines his structures into a megacompany
Elon Musk's business empire is undergoing a massive reorganization. The announced merger of aerospace giant SpaceX and artificial intelligence company xAI creates a structure with an estimated value of $1.25 trillion. In fact, we are talking about creating a technological conglomerate where AI will become the "brain" and space and robotics infrastructure the "body". What is behind the largest technology deal in recent years and what it will give Mask — Izvestia figured out
The exact parameters of the deal are not fully clear — these companies are non-public and are not required to disclose all their financial indicators, including in a merger situation. According to Bloomberg, the SpaceX agreement is valued at $1 trillion, and xAI at $250 billion. All payments will be made in shares of the respective corporations. Overall, the merger should provide both production and financial synergies for Musk's business empire.
Data and infrastructure are designed for each other
At first glance, SpaceX and xAI belong to different worlds. However, in a certain sense, they complement each other perfectly.
First, the computing power of Starlink. Musk's satellite constellation, numbering thousands of vehicles, requires complex autonomous control. The integration of xAI algorithms directly into the SpaceX architecture will create the world's first global decentralized computing network. At a time when ground-based data centers in the United States are facing a shortage of electricity, transferring part of the analytical capacity to orbital platforms is becoming an increasingly attractive idea.
Meanwhile, xAI has already built the Colossus supercomputer in Memphis, one of the most powerful AI farms in the world. SpaceX, with its unique expertise in industrial engineering and critical infrastructure management, will provide xAI with the necessary base to scale these capacities.
We can talk about more far-reaching plans. Deep space exploration and the creation of a colony on Mars are impossible with remote control from Earth due to signal delay. The Starship system needs something of an on-board intelligence capable of making instant decisions in an uncertain environment. The integration of Grok models directly into the SpaceX software core transforms rockets from vehicles into autonomous agents.
Speaking directly about the development of the AI component in Musk's companies, xAI computing centers consume gigawatts of electricity. SpaceX, which has considerable experience working with solar generation and energy storage systems (used in Starlink and ground infrastructure), is becoming an internal supplier of energy solutions for neural network training. In space, solar energy is practically free and available around the clock, there is no problem of storage devices requiring the construction of gigafactories for the production of batteries or backup generation.
Finance: preparation for the IPO
On the financial side, the merger solves the capital burn problem that xAI is currently demonstrating. AI startups require billions of dollars in chips and energy without guaranteed quick profits — Grok is no exception. SpaceX, thanks to the stable cash flow from contracts with NASA and commercial Starlink launches, is becoming an ideal partner for the AI division. The $1.25 trillion valuation puts the company in the league of the world's largest corporations, making it "too big to fall" in the eyes of creditors.
The companies are likely to launch an IPO this year. The consolidation of SpaceX and xAI is an important stage in preparation for going public. It is difficult to evaluate xAI individually due to the high volatility of the AI sector. As part of SpaceX, the company gets a foundation in the form of real assets — rockets and satellites.
Thanks to the merger, the combined company is less dependent on external venture funds and can finance the development itself (which does not mean that it will not attract money from outside). Investors receive a signal: when they buy shares of the united SpaceX, they simultaneously invest in the exploration of Mars, the global Internet and the creation of a "superintelligence" (in any case, Musk can present his developments to Grok in this way). This is a very broad level of marketing coverage.
Musk's individual programs can now cross-subsidize each other. Revenue from the launches will be used to purchase Nvidia chips for xAI, and xAI algorithms can be used to optimize Starship launches, reducing the cost of each kilogram of payload.
One company — common problems
For all the benefits, the merger carries risks— both industrial and regulatory. First of all, it must be said that the technology for creating data centers for xAI in orbit is extremely crude. Now, the rising cost of power on earth is forcing not only Musk, but also other players to launch an AI race into space. But there, as they say, it is also "not smeared with honey." The problem of heat dissipation has not been fully solved. At low orbits, it can be difficult to do this through radiation from radiators, and at higher ones, where it is possible not to direct radiators towards the Earth, it can be expensive to launch satellites. So far, there is not a single data center in outer space, so there is simply nothing to compare it with, and the efficiency of such data centers, with all their potential advantages, looks purely hypothetical. Musk says that this is a solved task, but you should not take all his statements at face value.
There may also be difficulties in interacting with the authorities. SpaceX is the Pentagon's strategic contractor. Combining it with an AI company that can be used for civilian or international purposes raises questions about US national security. Washington may require a strict separation of military and civilian areas, which will be more difficult to do in a single company.
Robofactory
Almost simultaneously, it became known about the decommissioning of Tesla electric vehicles models S and X. These are iconic cars, Tesla's first breakthrough into the mass segment. However, today their share in Tesla's sales is minimal, and the complexity of production and line maintenance costs are high. The release of capacity at the Fremont plant and other sites for the production of Optimus robots is directly related to the SpaceX–xAI deal. Musk has repeatedly stated that Tesla is an AI and robotics company that "accidentally makes cars." Moreover, Tesla's financial performance is stagnating: last year, revenue fell for the first time in a long time.
The connection between the events here is direct: In the future, Musk hopes that xAI will provide "soft" (intelligence) for all projects of his companies, Tesla will provide "hard" (mechanics and drives), and SpaceX will provide "communication" (Starlink) and new materials.
The closure of the S and X lines means that Musk has recognized that the electric car market has become mature and competitive (especially under pressure from China), and now margins will be sought in a new sector. Optimus robots require the same components as cars (batteries, sensors, chips), but promise a much higher cost multiplier when mass-deployed. Of course, the word "if" remains the key word here.
Overall, the deals show that Musk is putting everything on the line for AI and robotics, turning his companies into a single production pipeline. If this bet plays out, the combined company worth $1.25 trillion will be just the starting point of growth. Otherwise, the complexity of this integration and the implementation of technologies that are currently "in the project" may become its main vulnerability.
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