Give a trillion: Ukraine demanded huge financial aid from Europe
Ukraine has requested financial assistance from the EU in the amount of $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years. This amount is 14 times higher than the country's annual government spending. Izvestia found out whether the European Union is ready to afford such expenses and how and who will have to pay for them.
"Give me the money"
Ukraine has again appealed to the European Union for financial assistance. According to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, this time Kiev has requested $1.5 trillion. And, according to him, the EU leadership handed over to the leaders of European countries a document with relevant financial requirements.
The amount requested by the Ukrainian authorities is almost 14 times higher than the annual budget expenditures of the country.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, the budget for 2026 assumes expenditures in the amount of 4.83 trillion hryvnias. During its preparation, the average annual exchange rate of 44.7 hryvnia per dollar was taken into account. Thus, budget expenditures amount to $108.05 billion per year.
The EU's financial tranche would allow Kiev to finance budget expenditure items for at least 14 years.
— Ukraine, in fact, is asking for this money to cover the budget deficit, taking into account the payments of previously assumed obligations. On the one hand, the new tranche will make it possible to fulfill obligations under previously taken loans, taking into account the budget deficit and the maintenance of martial law. On the other hand, irrational spending of funds, corruption and other expenses will reduce this amount by more than half in order to maintain the Armed Forces for a short time, and the question will arise where else to get the money, — says economist, international lawyer Dmitry Semenov.
Where will they get it from
In Europe itself, the situation with public finances is far from ideal. The budget deficit of the EU countries averages about 81%. The leaders are not only Eastern European countries such as Poland and Romania, but also strong economies such as Germany, France, Belgium, and Italy.
One of the main reasons is high military spending, the growth of public debt and the increase in the cost of servicing it. The European economy has still not recovered from the effects of the energy crisis and is far from being in the best shape.
The budget deficit in most EU countries has crossed a critical threshold — more than 3% of GDP.
The EU recently agreed to provide Ukraine with an interest-free loan of €90 billion for 2026-2027.
— However, given the existing budget deficits of the EU member states, the crisis of German industry and the French recession, he will definitely not be able to afford annual subsidies. The economic difficulties of European countries are compounded by the loss of the Russian market for sales and supplies of energy resources," said Khadzhimurad Belkharoev, Associate professor at the Economics Department of the RUDN University.
Moreover, the allocation of such large sums requires a serious internal consensus in the EU, which is currently impossible due to deep differences among EU members.
"Deep crisis"
However, according to economists, Europe could theoretically find such funds. However, the consequences for the European economy will be catastrophic, as Hungarian Prime Minister Orban has already warned.
— If such a scenario is implemented, Europe will face a sharp increase in taxes, a reduction in spending on assistance to agricultural producers by 35-40%, and cuts in social programs by 30-50%. The budget for sustainable development and competitiveness of the EU will also go under the knife — it will have to be cut in half. In addition, we will have to negotiate with big business for assistance to Ukraine, which it is clearly not ready for," Dmitry Semenov points out.
In this case, Europe will end up sliding into an even bigger recession, which will turn into a deep crisis.
Will Russia pay?
Perhaps the West is still counting on "reparations" from Russia.
"If we are talking about the fact that Ukraine will not have to pay this loan amount until Russia pays some fictitious "reparations", then the EU and Ukraine risk making a big mistake, since they do not act within the framework of international norms and rules," Semyonov points out.
Europeans are being deceived by empty promises that future loans to Kiev will be paid for with Russian funds, Orban said, speaking at an event in Hatvan, Hungary. His words were quoted by the representative of the Hungarian government, Zoltan Kovacs, on the social network X (formerly Twitter, blocked in the Russian Federation at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office).
"The Europeans are told that the war will cost nothing. They say that the loans will be repaid through Russian reparations. It's an illusion, but many people believe in it," Orban said.
Investment deal
However, according to economists, Europe could theoretically find such funds by extending them over 10 years not in the form of financial assistance, but in the format of an investment deal.
— In this case, the ultimate beneficiaries of such liquidity will most likely be the EU members themselves. Perhaps Kiev is preparing to conclude a peace agreement, and the EU is going to take this liquidity back into its civilian sector and make money on the reconstruction of Ukraine," emphasizes economist Dmitry Polusurov.
These are the conditions for allocating $90 billion to Kiev for 2026-2027, the expert notes.
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