The expert spoke about the upcoming changes in the real estate market

The key driver of the beginning of 2026 is the change in the rules of family mortgages from February 1. The new principle is one preferential mortgage for one family, and the spouses will now be co—borrowers. This may help boost demand for new buildings in January and February, as some families seek to close the deal in advance. Yakov Novozhilov, Deputy head of the M2 Finance Strategy Department, told Izvestia on February 3.

"After the changes to the preferential program come into force, we should expect some cooling in the market. Since, among other things, the key interest rate remains at a high level, all this affects the mortgage market and supports the attractiveness of savings. On the supply side, in 2026, the factor of the accumulated volume of housing under construction and unsold is important," he said.

Based on the data of the UICC, by the end of 2025, an expansion of the risk zone for unsold volumes was noted. These are, for example, Krasnodar, Samara and Ufa. In such locations, it is more difficult for developers to maintain the pace of sales and the filling of escrow, so discounts, subsidized rates, installments and bonuses are often applied, even if the price in the ads varies moderately.

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The picture for the country in 2026 is likely to be heterogeneous, the expert said. Regions with a weaker balance of sales and construction readiness, such as the Krasnodar Territory, Samara Region, and Bashkortostan, have an increased risk of prolonged stagnation or apparent correction, as well as an increase in promotional offers. Moscow and St. Petersburg, as the most liquid markets, more often show steady demand and are likely to pass 2026 in a plateau mode: stagnation or slight growth with increased competition between projects.

Separately, it is worth recalling that the secondary market depends more on the availability of market mortgages and the willingness of buyers to make transactions for cash. Therefore, at high rates, the pressure on secondary prices can manifest itself faster than on the cost of new buildings.

"In summary, we do not expect an all-Russian price spike in 2026. The basic scenario is a short—term peak of activity in January–February, followed by calm demand and the usual competition for customers, especially in regions with accumulated supply. For the buyer, this means that the gain will often not be in the official price per square meter, but in the terms of the transaction: discount, subsidy rates, installments, additional options," concluded Novozhilov.

Mikhail Golovnin, Director of the Institute of Economics (IE) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said on February 3 that regulating mortgage interest rates could make lending more affordable for Russian residents. The expert added that the policy of subsidizing rates in certain groups of regions of the Russian Federation can also be implemented at the federal level. He also noted that the possibilities of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are limited by regional preferential programs and do not allow them to be subsidized.

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