The financial expert predicted the preservation of a strong ruble in February

The ruble marked the beginning of the year with a noticeable strengthening: in January, the dollar fell to around 76 rubles, the lowest since 2023. This result was the result of a combination of internal economic factors and a relatively favorable external environment, Alexander Grif, a financial expert, chairman of the Committee on Digital Technological Sovereignty of the CIS and head of the profile laboratory at MNRIIP, told Izvestia on February 3.

According to him, the national currency is supported by several circumstances at once. Among them are a significant trade surplus, weak imports at the beginning of the year, as well as the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, which maintains a high key rate, limiting ruble liquidity and reducing demand for foreign currency. Large-scale sales of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance also play a significant role: since mid-January, the ministry has been selling about 12.8 billion rubles worth of foreign currency and gold every day, which is 2.3 times more than a month earlier. Taking into account the parallel operations of the Central Bank, the total volume of net interventions reaches about 17.4 billion rubles per day, which significantly increases the supply of currency on the market.

"The tax reform, which came into force in 2026, has become an additional factor of sustainability. An increase in VAT to 22% should provide the budget with about 1.2 trillion rubles in additional revenue, which reduces pressure on the ruble exchange rate, although it increases inflationary risks, forcing the regulator to keep high rates," the expert said.

The external environment, according to Vulture, is still developing neutrally and positively. Oil prices have recovered and are in the range of $65-69 per barrel for Brent, and high quotations of gold and metals provide additional inflow of foreign exchange earnings. The geopolitical background remains a source of uncertainty, but the market, according to analysts, has already largely taken into account the current status quo.

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The base forecast for February assumes that the ruble remains relatively stable. The expert expects that the dollar will fluctuate between 75-80 rubles, the euro — 90-95 rubles, and the yuan — 10.7–11.5 rubles. Traditionally, low imports in the first quarter and a high key interest rate create a favorable background for the national currency, so he does not predict a significant weakening in the near future.

At the same time, alternative scenarios are associated with possible external shocks. A sharp drop in world oil prices or increased sanctions pressure may lead to an accelerated weakening of the ruble, in which case the dollar may rise above 80 rubles in the short term. In a positive scenario, on the contrary, an increase in commodity prices or an improvement in the geopolitical situation could strengthen the ruble to 73-75 rubles per dollar, but this would require serious additional drivers.

In general, the expert believes, the ruble enters February with a margin of safety. "The financial authorities intend to keep the exchange rate in a range that is comfortable for the economy. Previously, the main threat was the weakening of the national currency, but now excessive strengthening is becoming a challenge for the budget. Most likely, we will see a careful adjustment of policy on the part of the Central Bank and the government in order to avoid sharp fluctuations," said Grif.

According to him, the most realistic scenario remains movement near the current levels — about 77 rubles per dollar, 92 rubles per euro and about 11 rubles per yuan, without sudden jumps in one direction or another.

On February 2, Spartak Sobolev, head of the Alfa-Forex Investment Strategy Research Department, predicted the movement of the ruble exchange rate this week in the range of 74.50–79.50 per dollar, 88-93 per euro and 10.70–11.40 per yuan. He noted that the recovery of the US dollar in the global foreign exchange market has so far held it back from further strengthening. The market will keep an eye on geopolitics and prepare for the Central Bank's February rate meeting.

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