The last argument: France wants to eliminate unwanted African leaders

On Monday, January 2, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported on the neocolonial coups being prepared by France in African countries. The press office said that Paris is working on ways to overthrow the new president of Madagascar, and the Fifth Republic's involvement in the attempted coup in Burkina Faso on January 3 this year has been established. Read more about what is happening in the Izvestia article.

SVR reports

On February 2, the SVR press office reported incoming information that French President Emmanuel Macron was "feverishly looking for opportunities for 'political revenge' in Africa."

"Whether inspired by the American operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, or imagining himself the arbiter of the destinies of the African peoples, Macron authorized his special services to launch a plan to eliminate the 'undesirable leaders' of Africa," the SVR website says.

Among such countries was Mali, where, according to the SVR, France aimed to create conditions for the overthrow of President Assimi Goita. Madagascar is also cited as an example, where Paris is working on ways to overthrow the new president (Michael Randriani, starting in October 2025 — Ed.) to "restore a loyal regime." In addition, France's involvement in the attempted coup in Burkina Faso on January 3, 2026 has been established. The task of the rebels, it is specified, was the assassination of the country's president, Ibrahim Traore. At the same time, it was assumed that the success of the operation could bring forces loyal to Paris to power and would deal a blow to supporters of the sovereignty of the ideology of pan-Africanism on the continent. Paris also continues to look for ways to sow chaos in the Central African Republic (CAR).

They added that, despite the failure, the French special services do not stop trying to destabilize the situation in the "undesirable" countries of the Sahara-Sahel zone.

"In essence, France has switched to directly supporting terrorists of various stripes, who are becoming its main allies on the African continent. All the more obvious is the political bankruptcy of Macron's line, which fails to rid France in Africa of the reputation of a parasitic metropolis that robs former colonies and hinders their development," the SVR press office reports.

A painful blow

Vsevolod Sviridov, Deputy director of the Center for African Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia that three countries — Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, where military coups of an obvious political anti-French orientation have taken place over the past five years and where France is currently in power - can be attributed to the least pleasing political regimes in Africa. There are governments that are actively criticizing France at the level of rhetoric, and actively developing relations with Russia in the military-political sphere.

— France has historically had experience of interfering in the internal affairs of a number of African countries. Paris still has leverage in these three countries, including at the level of elites, businesses, and individual opinion leaders. Therefore, it is possible that France is working on various options for action, including the removal of regimes they dislike, as the SVR says, the expert suggests.

Vsevolod Sviridov adds that France still has loyal people in these three countries, including those in power, who have nothing against the development of relations with France and its return.

— Many of the managers studied in Paris. This does not mean that they are all pro-French, but there are those who would prefer the return of France. However, the political and business environment in these countries has become more stable and mature, so forceful outside intervention will not lead to the result France needs. It is unlikely that the elites and businesses will agree to return to their former relations with France. And there are different opinions within France about the prospects of relations with the Sahel countries. France has levers of pressure, but every year they become less and less as African sovereignty grows," the expert explains.

The Izvestia interlocutor also draws attention to the fact that in recent years, French business has been actively withdrawing from these three countries, and their economic role for French business has been declining.

"There were individual interested companies, for example, Orano (for uranium mining in Niger), which lost most of its assets there and its interests were partially affected by political events," he notes. — Total (the energy group) has left Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as a number of French banks. The reasons are primarily economic, as well as changes in the operating models of French companies in the region.

Despite this, French small and medium—sized businesses in these three countries continue to operate in retail trade, the service sector, and consulting.

— For France, the attempt to return these countries to its zone of influence is primarily an image project. This is a sensitive issue for the French ultra-patriotic forces, the military, who are accustomed to perceive these countries as a zone of exclusive French influence. But the political mainstream and big capital perceive the withdrawal from the Sahel less painfully, having shifted to other regional markets: Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, the expert explains.

If we talk about other former colonies of France on the continent, then there are even fewer reasons for military intervention. This is due to the fact that France has normal relations with most of its other former colonies. There is some fatigue from the French, but relations with Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin and Cameroon are quite stable, the source adds.

How France maintained its influence over its former colonies in Africa

Vsevolod Sviridov explains that France's influence on its former African colonies rests on three pillars: economic cooperation (lending, investment, trade), security, and cultural influence.

— Military contingents were stationed on the territory of most of their former colonies, which was important for the French army, including in the context of maintaining autonomy from NATO. France regularly participated in armed conflicts in Africa, thereby maintaining the combat capability of its troops, and in exchange, the African ruling regimes received security guarantees, the expert explains.

The cultural influence, according to the expert, lies in the fact that French is spoken in all these countries, and this determines a lot in terms of laws, standards, and requirements. He explains that the long—term French influence will decrease due to objective factors - European countries are facing structural challenges in the economy, and the influence of other countries in the region is increasing (China, Russia, and the United States).