Chat broke out: crisis is heating up in the Czech Republic due to correspondence between the president and the Foreign Minister

A large-scale political crisis is breaking out in the Czech Republic, which has resulted in thousands of demonstrations. The protesters are speaking out in support of President Petr Pavel, whose confrontation with the government of Andrei Babish turned into an open conflict after the publication of scandalous correspondence with Foreign Minister Peter Matsinka. There is a deep value rift behind the personnel disputes: the president's supporters are against Babis' Eurosceptic coalition and approve of Ukraine's support. Despite public pressure and demands for the resignation of ministers, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that Babish's government is not in danger yet.

The scandal in the Czech government

Mass rallies and protests are taking place in the Czech Republic. According to the organizers, on February 1, the number of participants in Prague alone reached 70-90 thousand people. Demonstrators took to the streets to publicly support President Petr Pavel in his confrontation with the new government and Foreign Minister Petr Matsinka.

The mass discontent of citizens was a reaction to an unprecedented scandal within the Czech leadership. On January 27, Peter Pavel held an emergency briefing, where he published correspondence with Foreign Minister Peter Matsinka. According to the president, the foreign minister sent SMS messages to the presidential adviser, the essence of which can be interpreted as direct threats. Initially, a dispute in the government broke out over the appointment of ministers: according to the constitution, the president approves them at the suggestion of the Prime Minister. This time, Pavel refused to appoint Filip Turek, a member of Matsinka's party from the Motorists for Themselves party, which is part of the ruling coalition with Prime Minister Andrei Babis, to the post of Environment Minister.

Matsinka, according to the head of state, tried to "push" Turek through ultimatum messages. The Czech media widely spread the minister's phrase that if the president refuses to negotiate, "the consequences will surprise him very much." The published fragments of correspondence make it clear that Babish's office wanted to resolve the issue of approval as soon as possible. The President, in turn, called such methods an attempt at blackmail and handed over the materials to lawyers and the police.

The Czech society was impressed by these reports. One of the main demands of the protesters, who promise to reconvene on February 15, was the resignation of the foreign minister. However, it is hardly feasible in practice.

It is almost impossible to replace Matsinka, since he is the leader of one of the coalition parties and a representative of the most anti-Russian wing, says Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Financial University. The expert believes that Andrei Babish will not take such a step, especially since his own relations with Pavel also leave much to be desired, and the head of state does not have enough authority to single-handedly "disperse" the government in such a situation.

Why wasn't Turek appointed to the post

However, the next step in this matter is Pavel's talks with the Prime Minister, scheduled for Wednesday. It is not known what might be discussed at such a meeting, since the office justifies the refusal to approve Turek not by "personal hostility", but by the protection of constitutional values. In an official letter to the prime minister, the president pointed out that the candidate had repeatedly justified the Nazi regime, and his statements questioned the equality of women and minorities. Another reason was Turek's accusations of performing a Nazi salute. The politician himself has already warned that he is preparing a lawsuit for the protection of honor in response to Pavel's public assessments.

The conflict between the two politicians, which could have remained just a part of the country's political life, was skillfully exploited, Mikhail Vedernikov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in a conversation with Izvestia.

"This was done in order to confirm the voiced narratives about the weakening of democracy in the country, the growing authoritarian tendencies in the republic and the pro—Russian course of the current cabinet," he explained.

There were many flags of the EU, NATO and Ukraine among the protesters in the squares, which underlines the value nature of the dispute over the Turek. The mobilization of citizens is connected with the rejection of the course of the new Eurosceptic coalition (SPD, ANO and Avtomobilists) and plans to "cut" support for Kiev, the media say.

— Although Babish does not demonstrate pro—Russian maxims, the people who took to the streets created a picture in the world media of a nationwide rally around the figure of the president, - said Mikhail Vedernikov.

It should be understood that the Babis coalition, which won the elections in the fall and consists of a coalition of the "right" — "Freedom and Direct Democracy" (SPD), "Action of Dissatisfied Citizens" (ANO) and "Motorists for Themselves" — by the standards of the Czech Republic is quite eurosceptic and critical on the topic of assistance to Ukraine, while itself Pavel takes a strongly pro-European and pro-Ukrainian position and defiantly appeals to the role of NATO.

Possible collapse of the ruling coalition

A separate topic in this matter is the European reaction. According to media reports, analysts are not so much interested in the correspondence scandal as in the risk of changes in aid to Ukraine. Back in late December, it was reported that the fate of the Czech initiative on ammunition for Kiev was being discussed at the level of the republic's Security Council. The "European interest" here is that the political crisis in Prague does not disrupt the mechanisms of support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

These concerns were fueled by the story of the L-159 aircraft. On January 16, Pavel in Kiev announced the possibility of transferring them to Ukraine to fight drones, but on January 19, Babish publicly closed this topic, stressing that supply issues cannot be discussed without the government. It later turned out that the topic of L-159 also appeared in the same ultimatum correspondence between Matsinka.

Despite the scale of the protests, the Freedom and Direct Democracy party and its leader Tomio Okamura are under the biggest blow, Vadim Trukhachev believes. The sharp rejection of the Ukrainian agenda by this force may eventually become a reason for its withdrawal from parliament.

At the same time, despite the scale of the rallies, such phenomena are considered quite ordinary events for the Czech Republic and do not affect the position of governments, as long as there is a consensus within them regarding joint work, Mikhail Vedernikov added.

For comparison, during Babish's first term, protests gathered up to 200,000 people, but did not lead to a change of government. Given the deep roots of Czech parliamentarism, these events are seen as a characteristic feature of political life, Vedernikov added. As for the relations within the Babish coalition, the ANO, Avtomobilisty and SPD parties are as dependent on each other as possible. They are likely to do everything possible to maintain the status quo, despite street pressure and criticism from the presidential office.