Trump vs. Beijing: US allies are looking for alternatives to the American market

Washington's tariff wars are pushing Western countries to move closer to China. Just this month, the heads of government of Canada and Ireland visited Beijing, and now British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on an official visit to the country. The White House is jealous of such trips.: they have already called such a rapprochement "very dangerous." How Donald Trump's policy affects the behavior of allies and whether their alliance with China will be strong is in the Izvestia article.

Tariff background

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on a visit to China. This is the first official trip of the head of the British government to China in the last eight years. He is accompanied by top managers of major companies, including executives from HSBC and Rolls-Royce, as well as representatives of British business and cultural institutions.

The Chinese side received the British delegation with great warmth. Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed interest in expanding economic partnership and agreed to ease the visa regime for British citizens. Starmer himself noted that the format of the meeting fully corresponded to London's expectations.

"We communicated warmly and made real progress, because the UK has something to offer," stressed the head of the British government. He will stay in China until January 31. He has meetings with Chinese officials scheduled, as well as working meetings and business events in Shanghai.

The only factor that overshadowed the visit was Washington's reaction to it. US President Donald Trump called the trip "very dangerous" and warned that the White House was closely monitoring the actions of one of its key allies.

Starmer's trip takes place against the backdrop of a difficult geopolitical situation. Relations between the United States and China remain tense: throughout the past year, the countries exchanged trade duties. But at the same time, Washington's traditional allies — from Canada to European countries — are seeking to diversify economic ties in order to mitigate the potential damage from Trump's tariffs.

The American leader was particularly annoyed by the visit of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to China earlier. In mid—January, Canada and China agreed to lower mutual trade barriers: Ottawa agreed to reduce duties on Chinese electric vehicles, and Beijing agreed to reduce duties on Canadian agricultural products, primarily rapeseed seeds. The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced its readiness to expand economic cooperation.

In response to these agreements, Trump threatened Canada with new duties of 100%. "It's even more dangerous for Canada to do business with China. She's doing so badly, but China cannot be seen as a solution to the problem," the Republican warned.

Friendship in spite of

With Donald Trump coming to power in the United States, Western countries found themselves in a difficult position. The head of the White House uses tariff restrictions not only to put pressure on opponents, but also on allies — for example, on the issue of Greenland.

Earlier, the American president threatened to impose duties of 10% on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands and Finland from February 1. "Until a deal is concluded on the full and final acquisition of Greenland," he said. But a week later he reversed this decision.

Such actions are pushing the traditional partners of the United States to reconsider not only trade relations, but also foreign policy approaches in general. When duties turn from a market protection tool into a means of negotiating pressure, confidence in the "rules of the game" decreases, and even close partners begin to diversify risks, said Evgeny Shatov, partner at Capital Lab.

— The agreements between Canada and China are a vivid example of how the US tariff uncertainty is pushing the allies to seek deals where they previously acted synchronously with Washington. The British visit to China, against the background of similar sentiments, looks like part of a broader trend: the "middle powers" of the West are trying to regain the maneuver space between Washington and Beijing, without breaking the alliance with the United States, but reducing dependence on American unpredictability, the Izvestia interlocutor explained.

According to him, the rapprochement of Western countries with China should not be considered as a transition to an alternative political camp. An alliance with China can be a pragmatic, useful, but limited contract. And just as much as it does not conflict with access to the American market and technology.

Europe, in fact, has already found itself in a situation where the room for maneuver has sharply narrowed, Mikhail Nikitin, head of the International Business and Finance Practice, also emphasizes. According to him, a complete break with Russia has deprived the EU of one of its major raw materials and technology partners. And there are few alternatives left in this configuration.

— Hence the visits to Beijing, including Keir Starmer's trip, which seem more forced than voluntary. This is not a gesture of ideological rapprochement, but a pragmatic attempt to reduce vulnerability to US tariffs and at the same time not close the door to the US market, which is still critically important for them, the expert admits.

The American lever

Donald Trump's harsh reaction sends a clear signal to the allies: rapprochement with China will be considered by the United States not only as an economic, but also as a political challenge, Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab, said in a conversation with Izvestia. According to him, if the American partners do not heed the warnings, then Washington has a wide range of pressure mechanisms in reserve.

First of all, these may be the familiar threats of high tariffs. Export controls and technological restrictions may also be involved, for example, in the field of semiconductors and dual-use goods. In addition, the United States is able to use financial and regulatory levers: increased compliance, verification of investments and transactions with Chinese structures, as well as political pressure within alliances and military blocs.

— In Trump's logic, this is framed by the simplest possible formula: "if you get closer to China, you pay for it with access to the United States." Actually, the very public assessment in terms of "very dangerous" is a warning that the American reaction may be harsh," the analyst explains.

At the same time, the possible alliance between China and the EU will be limited by definition. The risk of secondary sanctions and dependence on American technology and financial infrastructure remains a significant deterrent: any company or country that integrates too deeply with China in sensitive sectors automatically increases the likelihood of conflict with the United States.

— Economically, cooperation is possible and even inevitable — these are investments, consumer markets, supply chains, and the climate agenda. But political restrictions remain unchanged: security, espionage and cyber risks, sanctions regimes, and China's relations with Russia. All these factors are constantly on the agenda, which makes it impossible to form a full—fledged strategic alliance like the post-war Atlantic ties," Shatov emphasizes.

It would be an oversimplification to talk about forming a new sustainable trade union with China, agrees Mikhail Nikitin, head of the International Business and Finance Practice.

"These ties have existed for a long time, they have a complex and ambiguous history, and they are constantly changing depending on the industry and the political context," the expert summarizes. "In some cases, cooperation is strengthening, in others, on the contrary, it freezes. For Europe and other large economies, it is not the union itself that is important here, but the ability to balance. The world is increasingly adopting a bipolar configuration, where the center of gravity is formed around China and the United States, and other players are forced to live inside this confrontation, maneuvering and adapting to circumstances.