Export rates: The US is counting on the Venezuelan scenario for Iran

US President Donald Trump is considering the possibility of targeted airstrikes against Iranian military and security structures in an attempt to undermine the regime and push Tehran to negotiate. The White House is exploring options that could provoke an internal crisis, up to the "Venezuelan scenario" — the transfer of part of the security forces to the opposition. Experts interviewed by Izvestia, however, believe that a repeat of this path is unlikely. Meanwhile, moderate groups within the Islamic Republic may become more active, ready to make limited concessions under pressure from an external threat.

Washington is preparing strikes against Iranian security forces

The US administration is discussing options for actions aimed at undermining the positions of the Iranian leadership amid recent mass protests, Reuters reports. According to agency sources, Donald Trump is interested in creating conditions for regime change in Iran. He believes that targeted strikes against security commanders and key institutions responsible for quelling protests can give confidence to demonstrators and provoke a new wave of protests.

The White House expects that such actions will weaken the state's ability to control the situation inside the country and may lead to the seizure of administrative and security buildings by protesters. However, sources emphasize that the US president has not yet made a final decision.

At the same time, according to the agency, larger—scale scenarios involving strikes with a long-term effect are being discussed, including against Iran's ballistic missile program and elements of its nuclear infrastructure.

Trump has intensified his harsh rhetoric against Iran in recent days. He announced the deployment of a "huge armada" to the region and expressed the hope that Tehran would agree to a "fair and equitable" deal involving the complete abandonment of nuclear weapons. The American leader also made it clear that the United States is ready for further action if the Iranian side does not make concessions.

According to the New York Times, the US president has received an expanded list of possible military options from the Pentagon. These include attacks on nuclear and missile facilities, as well as operations aimed at weakening Iran's top political and military leadership. According to the newspaper, the new proposals go beyond the previously considered scenarios and allow, among other things, raids by American forces on the territory of the Islamic Republic.

The Middle East is on edge: what will the escalation between the United States and Iran lead to?

Experts consider the risk of a large-scale escalation to be extremely high

The White House, the newspaper notes, demands that Tehran take additional steps to curtail its nuclear program and stop supporting armed groups, which Washington considers a source of instability in the Middle East and a threat to Israel's security. Amid discussions about possible US strikes, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi announced Tehran's readiness to return to negotiations with Washington on nuclear issues. According to him, the Islamic Republic has never planned to create nuclear weapons.

The situation in Tehran

Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that a reproduction of the "Venezuelan scenario" in Iran, including an operation to capture or eliminate the country's leader, is unlikely, but not because of the absence of potential "traitors" in the elite or the power bloc.

— The Iranian security and armed forces system is much more complex and fragmented than in Venezuela. It includes the regular army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the police, the Basij forces, as well as special forces operating abroad and the structures of the Ministry of Intelligence, which often compete with each other. In such a configuration, it is impossible to talk about the complete solidity of the power unit," the expert explained to Izvestia.

In his opinion, in the event of an external attack on Iran, pragmatic groups may appear within its establishment, ready to make limited concessions in order to preserve the system as a whole. We may be talking about an attempt to reach an agreement with Washington without fully fulfilling the demands that Donald Trump is currently putting forward — zeroing out the nuclear program, drastically reducing missile capabilities and ending support for allied armed groups in the region.

The expert is sure that there is no unity within the Iranian elite today, and the accumulated social, economic and managerial problems only intensify internal contradictions.

Orientalist Leonid Tsukanov believes that a "Venezuelan-type" scenario in Iran is unlikely after the events of June 2025. According to him, despite the rivalry between individual clans and parts of the military bloc, the country remains united in the face of external threats.

— Moreover, Tehran is well aware that the transformation of the regime to Western interests will affect, among other things, the stability and prestige of the Iranian security forces, depriving them of some of their existing levers of influence and authority. Tehran already has the Iraqi and Libyan scenarios in front of its eyes, which they do not want to repeat," the expert said in an interview with Izvestia.

What can the United States use

A powerful "shock fist" has now been formed around Iran, indicating the readiness of the United States and its allies to conduct a large-scale operation. The configuration of forces indicates preparation for the scenario of suppressing air defense systems and launching precision strikes against strategic targets, military expert Dmitry Kornev noted.

— A key element of the presence is the Aircraft carrier Strike Group (AUG), led by the nuclear aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln. An air wing is deployed on board, including F/A-18 multirole fighters and fifth-generation F-35C aircraft, as well as electronic warfare and reconnaissance equipment. The aircraft carrier is escorted by three Arleigh Burke—class destroyers, each of which can carry dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles, he told Izvestia.

Closer to the East: Washington is tightening its fist to the borders of Iran

After a series of internal protests in the Islamic Republic, the United States is once again betting on a show of force.

In addition to AUG, additional forces are concentrated in the region. In particular, the marine component. At least five separate Arleigh Burke-type destroyers and specialized nuclear submarines capable of launching more than 100 Tomahawk missiles in one salvo, the expert emphasized.

— Aviation component — F-15E Strike Eagle squadrons and F-35A deployed from the USA are deployed at regional bases. They are supported by coalition forces (the United Kingdom, European and Arab partners), which assume the functions of refueling, reconnaissance and provision of missile defense/air defense zones," Dmitry Kornev said. — And also anti-missile. Particular attention should be paid to the deployment of what is believed to be the third battery of the THAAD complex in Israel. This system is designed to intercept ballistic missiles at trans-atmospheric altitudes, which is considered a direct response to Tehran's missile potential.

In the event of an active phase of the conflict, Israel will inevitably join the operation. The IDF has a powerful aviation component (more than 200 strike aircraft, including the F-35 Adir) and unique experience in conducting operations directly in Iranian airspace.

— The key issue is the choice of goals. We can see two scenarios. The first one is local. Attacks exclusively on nuclear facilities and missile factories. The second one is global. The inclusion of Iran's top military and political leadership in the list of targets. The current concentration of forces allows us to implement both options. If the order to "go east" is given, the potential involved will become one of the largest conflicts in the modern history of the Middle East," he concluded.

In the context of the current discussions, the US summer strikes are recalled. On June 22, 2025, the US Air Force and Navy conducted Operation Midnight Hammer against a number of Iranian nuclear facilities, including the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, the Natanz facility, and the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center. These strikes were carried out against the background of the Israeli military operation against Iran and the subsequent exchange of strikes between the two countries. Already on June 23, Tehran attacked the American military base Al-Udeid in Qatar, saying that this was a response to the "blatant military aggression of the United States."