Don't go there: what investments should you avoid

Despite the continued rise in gold prices, some experts are skeptical about investing in this precious metal, especially in the form of products made from it. Izvestia found out how fair this is and which investment instruments are currently the most risky.

For a rainy day

From the point of view of diversification, gold is a good investment tool and protects investors in certain difficult economic periods, says Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Financial Group.

"Investing in gold can act as an insurance tool against a possible depreciation of the ruble," he says.

There are quite a lot of ways to invest in gold, the expert notes.

"For example, investments in non—physical gold," he continues. — This includes the purchase of exchange-traded instruments (including shares of gold miners), and the opening of depersonalized metal accounts (OMS). You can invest in physical gold through the purchase of precious metal coins or bullion.

The first, in the analyst's opinion, is the most optimal, since the income from investments in physical gold may be lower than expected due to additional costs, such as renting a safe deposit box or purchasing an insurance policy in case of force majeure if gold is stored in the house.

And according to Ilya Regunov, managing partner of the financial company VFN Garant, any scratch on a gold bullion can reduce the value by 30-40% during the sale.

— By closing an impersonal metal account, you will receive money or the equivalent in metal without loss of markdown, — he commented.

However, even with this method of investing, you may encounter certain difficulties.

— Impersonal accounts are not insured, so you need to carefully choose the bank where to open such an account. In addition, different banks may provide different spreads for the purchase/sale of precious metals — this factor should also be taken into account. And when purchasing bonds or shares, you need to carefully choose a broker and an issuer of securities. If you don't have time to understand the aspects of working with stocks and bonds, then perhaps you should limit yourself to opening an MHI," Dudchenko believes.

As the expert noted, more advanced investors can include other precious metals (platinum, palladium, etc.) in the portfolio.

Kirill Chernovol, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute's Laboratory for the Analysis of best international practices, called investments in physical precious metals "ineffective."

— For example, jewelry and souvenirs. Their price includes work and extra charges, and when selling, they usually pay only for metal," he says. — Ingots are also sold in a package, but it must be in perfect condition so that they can be redeemed without question. The problems with coins are similar, and coins can have a large collectible margin. But at the same time, the coins have a wider range of buyers, that is, they may have higher liquidity.

No matter how the string twists...

Every day, which is accompanied by an increase in gold prices, there are more and more risks, says Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's customer support and sales department.

— Gold is showing phenomenal growth (already above $5,600 per troy ounce), which continues under circumstances such as the risks of a US government shutdown in early February, the weakening of the dollar in the global Forex market, the ongoing trend towards fragmentation of the global trading system in macro regions, the US government debt, which is growing despite everything, and There is also a rapid escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf countries. These factors create a state of general uncertainty and increase investor concerns. Which, in turn, seek to save their capital in such protective assets as gold. Most of the time, they get rid of dollars, which continues to increase nervousness in the market. A sharp drop in gold during the liquidation of positions can begin at any time," he warns.

According to the expert, it will be possible to give an adequate forecast for the precious metals market only after the price correction.

Most investors follow a trend when it is already at its peak, and this is a mistake, says Ilya Regunov.

— Short-term speculation on precious metals is extremely risky — the price reacts sensitively to geopolitical events and may fall sharply, leaving the investor in deep red.

In his opinion, gold is a long—term protective asset.

— His power is revealed on the horizon from 3-5 years or more. It protects against inflation and the weakening of the ruble. For example, since 2000, gold has increased by 2,000%, while dollar inflation has increased by only 600%. By investing for decades, you insure your savings against crises," he says. And he calls for diversifying investments, investing in metals no more than 20% of the total investment portfolio.

Not just the collapse

Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory for the Analysis of Institutions and financial markets at the Presidential Academy, called the market situation unique.

"It is becoming increasingly difficult to predict what high levels precious metals prices may reach," he says.

In the near and medium term, Abramov does not see any signs of weakening risks.

— Therefore, gold and other precious metals are likely to continue to grow and surprise us with price levels more than once. At the same time, however, there is a growing feeling that such an abnormal rise in prices for precious metals is in itself a risk factor," the Izvestia respondent noted.

In addition to the obvious risk of a collapse in gold prices, the threat of structural risks to the financial system is no less serious.

— The collapse in gold prices can affect the financial stability of individual financial institutions and government reserves. In some cases, the futures market may also be at risk due to the inability of individual counterparties to fulfill their obligations," he stressed.

The analyst is sure that we are not even fully aware of all the systemic risks yet and do not take them into account. He urges the average private investor to keep this in mind.

"As prices for precious metals rise astronomically, these risks will only accumulate, especially in those instruments where obligations to investors are secured not by physical reserves of the metal, but by derivative financial contracts for its receipt from third parties," Abramov summarizes.

Kirill Chernovol drew attention to an interesting trend in the changing structure of demand for gold:

"In 2025, large crypto companies that issue gold—backed stablecoins have equaled central banks in terms of gold purchases," he says.