Abnormal frosts and sleet: weather forecast in Russia for February by region
February 2026 could be one of the most unpredictable in recent years. Long-term forecasts indicate sudden temperature changes, alternating frosts and thaws, as well as increased cyclones over the European part of the country. Forecasters do not rule out heavy snowfall, gale force winds and periods of ice, which will complicate the transport situation and the work of public utilities. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
Weather in February 2026 in different regions of Russia
The first month of 2026 was remembered for the simultaneous records of low temperatures in the east and the height of snow cover in the west.
While the central regions, especially the Moscow, Vladimir, Yaroslavl and Kostroma regions, set daily records for precipitation, severe frosts hit the Urals and Siberia. In the Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Tyumen regions, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, the temperature dropped to -36...-43 degrees in the third decade of January.
It got even colder in Siberia: in the Tomsk region, the thermometer showed up to -41 degrees, and in Tuva — up to -50 degrees. At the same time, more than half of the monthly precipitation rate fell in Moscow in the last days of the month, and the total amount of snow reached almost 150% of the norm, which made January 2026 one of the top 3 snowiest in the capital since the beginning of the century.
According to long-term forecasts, February 2026 in Russia is expected to be unstable, with sharp temperature fluctuations, heavy precipitation and pronounced "swings" between thaws and frosts. At the same time, the estimates of different meteorological centers differ markedly.
Temperatures in the central part of the country will be close to the climatic norm or even higher, with alternating thaws and moderate frosts, which is typical for the end of winter. This model is based on data from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, according to which February should not exceed the usual seasonal values, and positive anomalies are possible in some places, especially in the European part of the country.
At the same time, other meteorological estimates indicate possible fluctuations: in some regions, forecasters warn of sharp temperature "swings" when steady thaws can be replaced by cold waves, and frosts at the beginning of the month will become stronger than normal. Such variations are especially typical for the territories of Russia, where the influence of atmospheric circulation leads to unstable temperature conditions.
Forecasters predict that February will be rainy and snowy. Snow and sleet are expected in most of the country, and rain is expected in the south. Heavy snowfalls and snowstorms are possible in the first half of the month, and winds are forecast to increase in the European part of Russia.
The main feature of February is a sharp change in the weather: thaws with rain can be replaced by frosts and snowfalls in a matter of hours, which will lead to ice and complications on the roads.
Weather in February 2026 in Moscow and St. Petersburg
In Moscow and the region, average temperatures in February, according to estimates by meteorologists and climate services, will range from about -10...-12 degrees at night to -3...-4 degrees during the day, which corresponds to the usual February values for the region. The snow cover will remain stable, and snowfalls and blizzards will be repeated throughout the month.
In the Leningrad region and St. Petersburg‑Cold weather is also expected in St. Petersburg: the average monthly temperatures, according to climate models, will range from about -10 degrees at night and up to -3...-4 degrees during the day, with frequent precipitation mainly in the form of snow. The cloudy and humid air of the Gulf of Finland will enhance the feeling of a frosty winter.
Analysts note that February 2026 in the central part of European Russia may be closer to the climatic norm, but with possible periods of increased frost and changeable weather — typical for the end of winter in a significant part of the country.
Weather forecast for February by federal districts
Forecasters predict that in the south of the European part of Russia, February will be close to the climatic norm or slightly warmer, especially on the coast, where temperatures will range from 0 to +3 degrees. The peak of warming may occur in the middle of the month: on the Black Sea coast, the air will warm up to +16...+19 degrees. Precipitation is expected in the form of rain and sleet, while windy weather will continue.
In the Urals and Western Siberia, temperatures are forecast to be within the normal range — from -10 to -17 degrees. A classic frosty and snowy winter is expected here, although sharp fluctuations are possible in the Urals: short-term thaws in the middle of the month and increased frosts by the end of February.
In Eastern Siberia and the Far East, temperatures will also be close to normal or slightly higher. A more noticeable warming is predicted in the south of the Far Eastern regions. Precipitation is expected to be higher than usual, and cyclones with heavy snowfall and wind are likely in the middle of the month.
What will spring be like in 2026
The spring of 2026 in Russia, according to forecasters, promises to be protracted and unstable. In March and April, frequent cold weather returns are possible with night frosts, snowfalls and sleet against the background of persistent snow cover and unstable atmospheric circulation.
Meteorologists note that short-term forecasts for several days ahead are most accurate in such conditions. Experts advise Russians to prepare for weather changes, use multi-layered clothing and not rush to change winter tires. Drivers are also advised to be prepared for reduced visibility during snowfalls and blizzards.
Long-term forecasts are probabilistic in nature, therefore, to obtain the most up-to-date information, it is worth regularly checking short-term forecasts for five to seven days on specialized websites. To plan trips around Russia, it is also useful to consult specialized services that give an idea of the overall climate picture in different regions.
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