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- They charge for demand: used foreign cars that have not been disposed of have increased in price by 15%
They charge for demand: used foreign cars that have not been disposed of have increased in price by 15%
Used foreign cars with a capacity of up to 160 hp, which did not fall under recycling, rose in price by 15% amid high demand, Izvestia learned. Their imports to Russia from China have more than tripled, and from Korea — doubled. Despite the price increase, such cars costing up to 3 million rubles have become the main competitors of domestic cars and are able to take away up to 7% of their share in the primary market, experts believe. Izvestia figured out how the Russian car market is changing and what to expect next.
Who became a competitor to domestic brands
Prices for used foreign cars with a capacity of up to 160 hp, supplied to Russia from Asian countries, increased by 15%. Sellers in China indexed the cost of cars amid sharply increased demand, car suppliers and dealers told Izvestia. This is due to a change in the procedure for calculating the recycling fee in the Russian Federation from December 2025, the transformation of the car market and the formation of new supply channels for used subcompact cars.
"If, until December last year, imports of three— and five-year—old foreign cars with powerful and volumetric engines were carried out from Korea, from Europe via Belarus, as well as from other EAEU countries, now the supply flow is being redirected to China," Roman Trofimov, an expert on car selection and supplier, told Izvestia. — There is an excellent selection of small cars with engines up to 160 hp of German and Japanese brands with left-hand drive. It was for these cars that demand shifted after the introduction of barrier recycling for powerful foreign cars in December 2025.
According to the market participant, German, Korean and Japanese brands, including VW Golf, Audi A3, BMW X1 and other models, are especially in demand among buyers. In response to the increased demand, Chinese sellers raised their prices. For example, if a three–year–old Audi A3 up to 160 hp cost 125-130 thousand yuan (1.37-1.43 million rubles at the exchange rate) in September 2025, now 140-150 thousand yuan (1.54-1.65 million) is being asked for it. Audi Q3 with a 1.4 liter (150 hp) engine cost 154 thousand yuan (1.69 million rubles) in the fall, and now 168 thousand (1.84 million).
— In China, due to increased demand, prices increased by an average of 15-25 thousand yuan (164.7–274.5 thousand rubles), which is 10-15% of the price in September–October last year, — said Roman Trofimov. — It has become more expensive to bring a turnkey car by 150-160 thousand rubles.
The increase in prices for used imported cars to 160 hp in the Russian market was confirmed to Izvestia by the Russian Association of Car Dealers (ROAD). Japanese subcompacts — Mazda, Nissan, Subaru, as well as Kia and Hyundai — are available in the price range from 2.5 to 3 million rubles.
At the same time, the increase in the cost of cars does not stop buyers. According to the Autostat agency, by the end of 2025, imports of used subcompacts from China increased 3.5 times, and from Korea — doubled. 110.7 thousand used cars were imported from the latter, and 81.2 thousand from China. Moreover, the share of cars with a capacity of up to 160 hp was 54.4%.
According to Sergey Tselikov, executive director of Autostat, a record number of used foreign cars were imported to Russia last year — more than 500 thousand. There was a surge in demand in September and October before the change in the order of calculation of scrap collection, he told Izvestia.
In 2026, the change in the conditions of preferential import of cars for individuals will affect almost half of imports of used cars. The market will be transformed, and there is already a reorientation in demand for cars with subcompact engines (up to 2 liters) and a capacity of up to 160 hp, the expert noted.
— The main focus of second-hand car imports will shift to vehicles worth 2-3 million rubles. This will increase competition within the mass segment between Chinese brands, localized models and domestic cars," Anna Golikova, Director of Sales Development at Interleasing Group, told Izvestia.
The pressure on the market will be focused primarily on the upper price range, where top-end configurations of Lada Vesta, UAZ Patriot and others are presented, she believes.
According to Roman Trofimov, imported used subcompacts have become direct competitors to the Russian car industry and localized Chinese brands.
"A 2022 Nissan Qashqai for 2.5 million rubles from China or a three— and five-year-old VW Golf for 2.3 million is no worse than a Lada Vesta, and a three- and five—year-old Mazda CX-5 costs 2.7 million rubles in Russia, which is comparable to the new Geely Coolray in our market," the expert noted.
According to the Interleasing Group of Companies, foreign cars with mileage for 2-3 million rubles (up to 160 hp) can delay 5-7% of demand in the upper part of the mass segment of cars in the Russian Federation. Increased competition will become a price restraint factor and a reason to strengthen the configuration.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade, AvtoVAZ, Moskvich, AGR, and Belgee did not respond to requests from Izvestia.
The new recycling rules came into force on December 1, 2025. The privileges for the import of vehicles with an engine capacity of over 160 hp for individuals have been canceled. If the car has 161 hp or more, you will have to pay the full (commercial) tariff, which can reach up to half the cost of the car.
Who will lose from the increase in recycling
The demand picture in the car market in 2026 is changing dramatically, Alexey Ivanov, the owner of the Alliance Trucks commercial vehicle dealership network, told Izvestia.
"Now individuals can import only cars up to 160 hp with minimal scrap (up to 5.2 thousand rubles). For more powerful models, the collection has increased to 750-800 thousand and above, which makes their import unprofitable," he noted.
There is an inevitable flow of buyers into the segment up to 160 hp, where fresh used German and Japanese cars may actually collide with new Chinese and Russian models, a market participant believes.
This power range includes the popular Honda Vezel (124 hp, starting from 2.3 million rubles), sedans and crossovers of Chinese brands priced at 2-3 million, as well as Lada Vesta and Granta in upper trim levels costing up to 2 million.
According to Alexey Ivanov, a three–year-old BMW or Mercedes with up to 160 hp will cost 2.5-3 million rubles with a PTS, which is comparable to a new, well-equipped Chinese crossover.
The incessant rise in prices for new cars in the Russian market also plays in favor of used foreign cars.
The average cost of new cars in Russia (both domestic and imported) increased by 10% over the year and reached 3.48 million rubles. According to the expert's forecast, prices may increase by another 10-15% in the first half of 2026.
"AvtoVAZ has the weakest position in the current situation — it will lose the most from such an increase in recycling," Andrey Olkhovsky, General Director of Avtodom Group, told Izvestia. — The increase in the fee rate is pushing Chinese brands to localize in the Russian Federation. Production facilities are being launched in Kaluga, St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad and even Nizhny Novgorod to receive compensation and include it in the price of cars to increase sales.
According to the expert, if competition with imported used cars increases, a revision of recycling rates for cars up to 160 hp is possible.
The localized automotive industry is rapidly adapting to the needs of the Russian customer, said Maxim Agadzhanov, Managing Director of Alfa-Leasing. Given the support of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, this trend will continue, he believes.
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