Tariff sense: will the proceeds from Trump's tariffs be able to cover the US national debt of $2 trillion

American import tariffs are unlikely to be a lifeline for the US budget. Donald Trump says the duties have already brought the treasury $600 billion. But against the backdrop of the rapidly growing national debt, this amount looks like a drop in the ocean: during the year of his presidency, the country's liabilities jumped by more than $2.3 trillion, a record increase. As a result, the total debt of the United States has grown so much that it has exceeded $ 38.6 trillion. For comparison, Russia's obligations are 86 times less — 34.4 trillion rubles. Whether the United States will approach the shutdown again is in the Izvestia article.

Revenue from Donald Trump's duties

It is unlikely that Donald Trump will be able to cover the growing American national debt with revenue from duties, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On January 27, the head of state said that import tariffs have already brought $600 billion to the US budget. According to him, the imposition of duties on a number of countries has become an "indispensable" tool for strengthening the economy.

The president has repeatedly stated that the United States will be able to service its growing debt through import tariffs. However, the figures suggest the opposite: the volume of government borrowing has already exceeded $38.6 trillion and continues to grow almost daily, negating the effect of duties.

For comparison, the Russian national debt is 86 times lower — about 35 trillion rubles (the external debt is calculated at the exchange rate of the Central Bank of January 28 — 76.6 rubles/$)

Moreover, since Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, the US national debt has grown by $2.3 trillion, the largest amount in the first year of his presidency. So, the previous record holder was Joe Biden — he increased the obligations of the States in his first year in office by $ 2.1 trillion. Before that, Barack Obama faced a financial crisis, which caused US liabilities to jump by $1.7 trillion over the year.

In addition, according to the US Treasury, tariffs brought about $200 billion to the budget in 2025, said Olga Gogaladze, an economist and expert on financial markets. These receipts cover only 10-12% of the increase in government debt, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. In this scenario, it would take about eight years for the United States to close the gap solely through tariffs, and then only if borrowing stopped growing. However, in practice, this is almost impossible.

The funds received from the duties are intended not only for debt servicing. The American administration has repeatedly announced plans to channel these revenues for other purposes, including payments to citizens and military spending. Thus, tariffs cannot be considered solely as a tool to combat obligations — they are only a temporary source of revenue that does not stop the growth of borrowings, but only partially mitigates the situation, said Sofya Glavina, associate professor at the Faculty of Economics at RUDN University.

What to do with the growing U.S. government debt

The growing national debt poses long-term risks to the American economy. The main danger lies in fiscal vulnerability, Olga Gogaladze believes.

— The larger the liabilities, the more the budget suffers from rising interest rates, as the cost of servicing it increases. In addition, high debt limits the government's ability to finance new initiatives or deal with crises without even more borrowing, she believes.

At the same time, the United States will not go bankrupt, but it may enter a "debt trap": when the increase in liabilities becomes uncontrollable and the economy grows slowly, explained Sofya Glavina from RUDN University.

America remains the world leader in terms of government obligations — they reach about 125% of the country's GDP. Over the past five years, net interest payments on debt have tripled and approached $1 trillion, the expert recalled. The service already consumes about 15% of all federal expenditures, second only to the cost of social security. The constant need for new loans increases the cost of loans for the state, and ultimately falls on taxpayers: corporate, consumer and car loans are increasing, Sofia Glavina noted.

In order to somehow slow down the growth of the national debt, the United States can either reduce costs or increase revenues (by canceling tax breaks or increasing domestic fees), Olga Gogaladze noted. However, in the first case, there is a high risk that popular programs, such as social programs, will be affected and significantly reduced.

The risks of another shutdown in the United States

In recent days, the risk of a new shutdown has increased dramatically in the United States. The immediate reason for this was the clashes in Minneapolis, which resulted in casualties. In response, Democratic senators led by Chuck Schumer announced that they would block the bill on government financing, demanding amendments to it concerning the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in particular the immigration police, ICE, and the Border Patrol, Olga Gogaladze recalled.

— Now, in order to avoid a shutdown, the Senate needs to pass the remaining six of the 12 annual funding bills by midnight on Friday (January 30). Since the documents have not yet been approved, a partial government shutdown may begin on February 1," the expert explained.

The shutdown does not directly increase the national debt, but actually represents a temporary suspension of spending, the economist explained. However, it exacerbates macroeconomic instability, which can reduce tax revenues and complicate debt management in the long run, she added.

However, a one-day shutdown is equivalent to about $1.2 billion in losses in GDP, Sofia Glavina noted. And the crisis in two weeks is about $17 billion. In a month, there is a risk of losing about $ 35-40 billion. According to her, the US government will probably do its best to avoid this situation.

Why is the dollar selling off

By the end of January, a sharp sell-off of the dollar began in the markets, directly related to President Trump's threats to impose punitive duties on eight European countries due to their disagreement with his plans for Greenland. These statements provoked panic among investors and an outflow of capital from American assets, as they perceived this as an escalation of the trade war with key allies, Olga Gogaladze notes.

The weakening of the dollar has a direct impact on American consumers: imported goods, including consumer goods, are becoming more expensive. For the global economy, where the dollar remains the main reserve currency, such sharp fluctuations cause instability in global financial markets and increase the cost of debt servicing for countries with dollar debt, the expert adds.

Traditionally, the American economy and government debt instruments have been considered among the most reliable in the world, recalls Alexander Firanchuk, a leading researcher at the International Laboratory for Foreign Trade Research at the Presidential Academy. However, the chaotic actions of Donald Trump, as well as his conflicts with key allies and the largest holders of American debt over the past year, have undermined confidence in American bonds and increased the perception of the risks of investing in them.

But it should be noted that the US president is not concerned about the weakening of the US currency. According to Trump, "the dollar is doing great."