Spitz and sword: why Zelensky went on the attack on Lukashenko
At the end of January, relations between Ukraine and Belarus sharply deteriorated. Vladimir Zelensky met with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya for the first time, and also made a number of provocative statements. At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities previously avoided confrontation with Minsk so that it would be less involved in hostilities. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Not a word in Russian
Vladimir Zelensky launched an unexpected attack on the Belarusian authorities at the end of January. First, he touched upon relations with Minsk in several of his speeches. So, at the international economic forum in Davos, he sharply criticized the leadership of the European Union, among other things, he complained that the Europeans did not contribute to the victory of the protests in Minsk in 2020.
Later, during his visit to Vilnius, he stated that Belarus had allegedly turned into a Russian governor-general. "So far, the white pomeranian Lukashenko has more rights than the people. There was a chance in 2020 to change this, and I'm sure there will still be a chance," he said.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky walk around the guard of honor during the welcoming ceremony in Vilnius.
In social networks, they called the speech an example of extreme hypocrisy, because it is in Ukraine, not in Belarus, that borders are closed, and men are caught on the streets.
Secondly, in Vilnius, Zelensky personally met with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who is considered the leader of the Belarusian opposition in the West. Previously, the politicians had shaken hands at international events, but this was the first time they had held lengthy bilateral talks. At the same time, it is noted that Kiev has now initiated the conversation.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Svetlana Tikhanovskaya during a meeting in Vilnius
During the meeting, Tikhanovskaya and Zelensky discussed compliance with the sanctions regime and the reception of prisoners. The "President of Light" asked to appoint a special envoy for Belarus, the Ukrainian leader in response invited the interlocutor to Kiev. The participants of the meeting emphasized that the negotiations took place "without a single word in Russian."
Thirdly, the Ukrainian media reports that both sides have serious plans. According to the European Truth newspaper, Zelensky and Tikhanovskaya discussed the possibility of opening a criminal case against Alexander Lukashenko. It is noted that this step will prevent the Belarusian leader from establishing a dialogue with the United States and breaking out of isolation in the West.
Both are not in the resource
Presidential elections were held in Belarus in 2020. According to official data, Alexander Lukashenko received 80% of the vote, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya — 10%. The opposition disagreed with the results and organized large-scale rallies and strikes. The authorities were able to control the situation, and after the street protests subsided, protest leaders and some of their active supporters left the country.
Western countries did not recognize the official election results at that time, imposed their own sanctions against the Belarusian authorities, and began to accept Tikhanovskaya on a presidential scale. Ukraine has taken an ambivalent position. On the one hand, Kiev did not officially recognize Lukashenko's victory either.: The country's Foreign Ministry then announced that the head of the country would be called exclusively by first and last name, without specifying the position.
An information stand with presidential candidates of Belarus at a polling station in the village of Protasy in the Gomel region. August 4, 2020
On the other hand, the Ukrainian authorities did not impose sanctions and avoided contacts with the fugitive Belarusian opposition. A characteristic episode occurred in July 2021. Then Zelensky shook hands with Tikhanovskaya at an event in Vilnius, while the Ukrainian side did not report anything about it at first, and then stressed that it was the Belarusian who "came up and introduced herself."
The explanation was simple: Minsk then maintained a careful position between Kiev and Moscow, providing the parties to the conflict with a platform for the negotiation process. In 2022, the war began, and the Belarusian side supported its closest ally. As a result, relations between Kiev and Minsk deteriorated sharply, although there was still no final break.
Before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations on the territory of the Belovezhskaya Pushcha National Park in the Brest region. March 3, 2022
Ukraine has interrupted transport links with Belarus, mutual trade has come to naught, Zelensky has imposed a number of sanctions. The sides have repeatedly accused each other of creating tension on the border. So, in July 2024, Alexander Lukashenko noted that "the neighbors have become more active," so border guards and special operations forces "blocked the direction of the likely movement of the enemy."
At the same time, there was no break in diplomatic relations between the two countries. Belarus has not closed its embassy in Kiev, although it has recalled all staff. The Ukrainian Embassy in Minsk continues to operate, although there are only five employees left. The Ukrainian side also continued to ignore the fugitive Belarusian opposition. Zelensky met with Tikhanovskaya in 2023 and in 2025, but all these were fleeting meetings at international events.
The border of Belarus and Ukraine near the checkpoint Novaya Guta Gomel region
In Kiev, they talked quite openly about why they avoid contacts. So, Zelensky's adviser Alexander Rodnyansky explained that Tikhanovskaya simply has no influence on anything, she does not have any resources. "Now, somehow, there is absolutely no time to think about it, this issue is far from our priorities," he noted. Other speakers stressed that Kiev wants to avoid confrontation with Minsk so that it does not get involved in the fighting.
Apparently, the approach has changed now. One of the possible reasons is the change of the head of Zelensky's office. It is believed that the previous head, Andrei Ermak, advocated pragmatic relations with Minsk. His successor Kirill Budanov allegedly sympathizes with the Belarusian opposition, for example, last December he personally met 114 prisoners pardoned by Alexander Lukashenko at the border.
Mobile ground-based missile system "Oreshnik" on combat duty in Belarus
According to the second version, Zelensky was very wary of the deployment of the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus and is now taking revenge for the new threat in such a peculiar way. Finally, the third version says that in fact, the initiators of the escalation were not the Ukrainian authorities, but the European elites. They are allegedly unhappy with Minsk's contacts with the administration of Donald Trump and, through Zelensky, are trying to prevent Belarus from breaking out of isolation in the western direction.
What the experts say
Belarusian political scientist Peter Petrovsky believes that Zelensky's behavior is explained by several reasons.
— On the one hand, there is a common position of the "war party" in the West, which does not want the cessation of hostilities. Through Zelensky, these people are trying to destabilize relations with Belarus. On the other hand, there are narrow corporate interests of Ukrainian oligarchs. After 2022, they appropriated a lot of Belarusian property — about seven thousand railway wagons, assembly shops and other facilities. Now they are doing everything not to return the stolen goods," he explains.
Vladimir Shapovalov, a Russian political scientist and deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, says that Ukraine's position has not changed radically. According to him, paramilitary groups have been operating in the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a long time, which aim to change the government in Belarus.
— We are talking about a serious tightening now. This may be a consequence of the normalization of Belarusian-American relations. The Donald Trump administration lifted a number of painful sanctions from Minsk, and Alexander Lukashenko was invited to join the Peace Council. In such circumstances, the European liberal elites, with the help of Zelensky, send a signal that they consider such a course unacceptable," he emphasizes.
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