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- Don't build houses: developers massively reduce the launch of new residential projects in megacities
Don't build houses: developers massively reduce the launch of new residential projects in megacities
Developers are reducing the launch of new residential projects in million-plus cities. By the end of 2025, this trend was recorded in most megacities: in Ufa, volumes decreased by 35%, in Moscow and Rostov-on-Don — by 29%, in Samara — by 23%. The Ministry of Construction explained this by the current monetary policy, the socio-economic situation in the regions where developers operate, as well as the development strategies of the companies themselves. While maintaining negative dynamics, buyers in a number of cities may face a limited choice of high-quality housing, analysts say. Izvestia investigated what would happen to the residential real estate market.
Why developers refuse to build new real estate
A reduction in the launch of new residential projects by the end of 2025 was recorded in ten of Russia's 16 million-plus cities. This is stated in the research of the real estate project "Movement.<url>", prepared on the basis of data from the Unified Housing Construction Information System (UIHS).
According to the document available to Izvestia, the largest reduction occurred in Ufa — by 35%, in Moscow — by 29.2%, in Rostov-on-Don — by 29.6%, in Samara — by 23%. A decrease was also recorded in Perm — by 10.5%, in Voronezh — by 6.1%, in Novosibirsk — by 5.9%, in Chelyabinsk — by 4.9%, in Kazan — by 3.6% and in Krasnoyarsk — by 2.7%.
In general, in 2025, Russian developers launched housing construction with a total volume of 41.3 million square meters. m is almost 12% less than a year earlier (46.7 million square meters), the authors of the study noted.
In fact, the volume of new project launches has fallen back to the level of 2021-2022, said the head of the analytical center "Movement.<url>" by Yan Gravshin. According to him, the decrease was also observed in 2024, but then it was symbolic, by about 0.4%, in 2025 the negative dynamics became more pronounced.
—Developers are slowing down construction under unfavorable economic conditions and in a situation where it is quite difficult to predict any positive changes, that is, with uncertainty," the analyst noted.— The situation in Moscow deserves special attention: a significant reduction in the volume of launches in conditions of sustained demand is a negative signal for buyers, price increases in the capital will not slow down, and even more so they will not decrease.
According to him, while maintaining negative dynamics, buyers may face a limited choice of high-quality housing, especially in projects with relatively short commissioning dates.
At the same time, according to the study, six of the 16 million-plus cities managed to increase the commissioning of new projects, including Volgograd, Yekaterinburg, St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Krasnodar and Omsk. However, the situation in these cities remains ambiguous. Thus, Krasnodar, which has increased its launch by a third, has accumulated a large volume of unsold housing. In terms of the ratio of sales to construction readiness, the capital of Kuban ranks last among megacities — 45%, which indicates that demand does not have time to absorb the increasing supply.
"The change in the volume of new project launches (both upward and downward) is due to a number of factors, including monetary policy, the socio-economic situation in a particular region of the developer's presence, including the volume of guaranteed demand, and the development strategy of the developer," the press explained to Izvestia- the service of the Ministry of Construction.
They also noted that by the end of 2025, the regions issued 5,071 construction permits for 40.93 million square meters. m of housing (-19.7% compared to the same period in 2024 in terms of area).
Yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin, who oversees the development of the construction industry, expressed concern about housing construction in the Russian Federation in 2028-2029, admitting that the authorities already expect a slight slowdown in 2027. At the same time, he believes that the situation in the industry will improve as the Central Bank declines. The next meeting of the Bank of Russia on the rate is scheduled to take place on February 13.
Should Russians expect a housing shortage
According to the developers themselves, the slowdown in development activity in Russia is due to a combination of factors.
— First of all, this is the state of demand. Mortgage market rates are at historically high levels. Mortgage support programs are under threat of severe reformatting, which may reduce the number of potential participants. Loans for construction are also expensive, and their maintenance is directly related to the pace of sales," Stanislav Konovalov, a member of the board of directors of Plateau Development, told Izvestia.
According to him, the general economic background is also not conducive to increasing construction, as GDP growth has slowed and the tax base has changed. Accordingly, in 2025, developers did not seek to bring new buildings to the market and took a wait-and-see attitude, he noted.
— At the end of the year, the trend finally reversed. According to the EIZHS, in December, the Russian new building market was replenished with 5.2 million new square meters, which was the highest since the beginning of 2025 and 21% higher than in December 2024," said Stanislav Konovalov.
The expert suggested that the decrease in developer activity was temporary. At the same time, he admitted that residents of large cities, including Moscow, may face a limited choice of housing, primarily in the most affordable price segment.
— With expensive mortgages, developers try to refocus on clients who are less dependent (or not at all dependent) from the loan. Accordingly, they are building more business and premium class housing. Over the past year, the supply of massive new buildings in the capital has halved. In the future, this may create a shortage of available square meters," the developer believes.
This opinion is shared by Natalia Shatalina, CEO of the Redcat aggregator of new buildings. According to her, the volume of housing commissioning in Moscow in 2025 (3.9 million square meters were launched). m) almost dropped to the level of 2020, when the supply increased by 3.8 million square meters in 12 months.
— The main reasons are economic. For two years, the market has been living in an exorbitantly high key rate (16-21%), which has affected and continues to affect demand and the capabilities of developers. At the same time, interest was supported by preferential mortgage programs, but the expectation of their rapid change with the Central Bank's high interest rate makes it difficult to predict future demand," the industry representative explained.
At the same time, she noted that the costs of developers are steadily growing — these are the costs of materials and labor, and project financing, which has increased several times due to high rates. All this slows down the launch of new projects, Natalia Shatalina emphasized. She admitted that positive changes in the market will begin after the reduction of the key interest rate.
According to Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium, the reason for the delayed entry of construction companies into the market may be expensive project financing.
— Many developers, even in conditions of stable consumer traffic, today cannot develop a financial model with significant marginal profit. However, since June 2025, the Central Bank has been gradually easing monetary policy. Consequently, the number of launches will gradually increase," he suggested.
He admitted that the output of new projects will increase relative to 2025, but peak results in 2026 should not be expected. At the same time, the expert believes that there are no prerequisites for a shortage of real estate across the country.
— The volume of exposure in most segments of the Russian housing market today meets the needs of buyers. For example, according to the Ministry of Construction, 118.8 million square meters are under construction in Russia by the end of 2025. m residential real estate, which is 1.4% higher than in December 2024. At the same time, demand increased by 1% year—on-year," Ruslan Syrtsov noted.
According to Dmitry Khalin, CEO and managing partner of Intermark Urban Real Estate, the main reason for the reduction in the withdrawal of new projects is, of course, a significant reduction in the issuance of family mortgages, as well as a slower easing of the Central Bank's monetary policy. Borrowed funds for developers remain very expensive, he added.
In addition, developers are now forced to pay very high interest rates for project financing, which makes the economics of many projects unprofitable for them. The expert believes that if the Central Bank reduces the rate, then market mortgages will become available again, and in this case, we should expect not only the start of planned projects, but also those that have been postponed.
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