Prohibition of the market: why alcohol sales have collapsed by almost 10%
In 2025, retail alcohol sales in Russia (excluding beer and low—alcohol analogues) fell by 9.3% to 205.8 million decaliters, according to Rosalokoltabakcontrol (RATK). Vodka "sank" by 3.6%, cognac — by 9.2%, wines — by 1.9–10.7%, and low-alcohol beverages collapsed almost eight times. However, the market is driven by other trends: alcoholic beverages have grown by 12.7%, and consumers are clearly voting in rubles for premium and low-alcohol alternatives, calling into question official statistics. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Prices and prohibitions affect demand
In 2025, retail alcohol sales in Russia (excluding beer, cider, poire and mead) decreased by 9.3% compared to 2024, to 205.8 million decaliters, Rosalokoltabakcontrol said. Low—alcohol beverages fell almost eight-fold (to 1.53 million dal), vodka sales fell by 3.6% (73.3 million dal), cognac - by 9.2% (15 million dal), grape wines — by 1.9% (56 million dal), sparkling wines — by 3.2% (22.7 million dal), liqueur — by 10.7% (1.15 million dal), fruit — by four times (2.5 million dal). The only increase was in distilleries: +12.7% (18.8 million dal). In total, according to RATK, 119.98 million dals (-1.1%) of strong (>9%) alcohol were sold.
— The reasons for the decline in retail sales of alcoholic beverages are complex. At the same time, the change in the price environment has the greatest impact on sales. We can add a change in consumer preferences, as well as the introduction of regional restrictions in 2025," the RATK press service told Izvestia.
Since January 1 of this year, the cheapest bottle of vodka that can be legally sold at retail has already cost 409 rubles, says market expert Alexander Stavtsev.
— Last year, the price of vodka was lower, but it is becoming a definite demand limiter, — says Alexander Stavtsev. — In the wine segment, the main impact is exerted by customs duties and excise taxes, which are also indexed annually. The excise tax rate is now 148 rubles per liter. In general, customs policy affects retail prices and, consequently, reduces the volume of purchases.
Natalia Nevorotova, director of the ASG main portfolio, adds in this regard that when economy vodka began to cost like vodka from the confident mainstream, consumers began to make a choice in favor of the latter. But despite the decline, vodka remains the largest and most capacious category in the segment of strong alcohol, the market representative notes.
At the same time, according to the head of Soyuzkonyak, State Duma deputy Vladislav Reznik, significant changes have recently occurred in the structure of sparkling wine consumption — the volume of sales during the New Year holidays has hardly changed compared to last year, but the share of domestic sparkling wines has already reached 90%.
Oleg Nikolaev, co-founder of the Sevastopol Wine Growers and Winemakers Association, believes that almost all changes in alcohol sales statistics for 2025 are dictated by changes in the state's tax policy.
— Collapse (except for a few categories) there is no place, there is a drawdown," he pointed out. — As it is customary to say today, planned cooling. Sales of still and sparkling wines look the best, they have almost remained at the level of 2024. The increase in duties on imported wine, of course, led to a drop in sales, but it was offset by sales of Russian products, whose taxes are many times lower.
Who is growing, who is sinking
Despite the decline in volumes, premium segments and new products are increasing their turnover, compensating for losses. There are trends in the alcohol market that affect the sales structure. This is both premiumization, and the trend towards the consumption of alcoholic beverages in the form of cocktails and tinctures, which leads to an increase in sales of the so-called brown spirits (whiskey, brandy, dark rum, bourbon and others), and consumer interest in new categories, such as soju, the press service of JSC Tatspirtprom notes.
Statistics reveal a paradox: strong alcohol persists, low-alcohol cocktails are, in fact, destroyed by excise taxes, experts say.
— In addition to the obvious reasons — an increase in excise taxes and minimum retail prices, which leads to a general decrease in sales of alcoholic beverages (excluding beer, beer drinks, cider, poiret and mead), it is also worth paying attention to changes in its individual types. Strong alcohol remains in demand, but the range of customer preferences is expanding — there is a shift away from traditional vodka and cognac towards other options, according to the Businessstat agency.
The decline in retail alcohol sales is more correctly interpreted not as "everyone is drinking less," but as a shift within categories. The market now does not live in one straight line: demand is really sinking somewhere, but mostly it is flowing over, changing shape, packaging and shelf, says alcohol market expert Alexei Solovyov.
Youth and habits: a sober trend is gaining momentum
The new generation increasingly prefers health and taste experiments to a traditional feast.
— We are witnessing a trend towards a decrease in interest in alcohol among young people. This is due to the high level of education about a healthy lifestyle, as well as a wide range of leisure activities," says the head of the Popular Front. Analytics" by Olga Pozdnyakova.
This is confirmed by the representative of the market and the head of the farm "Semigorye" Gennady Oparin:
— Young people really have a very steady trend towards a healthy lifestyle. The new generation, those who are 20-25 years old today, are much more aware of alcohol consumption.
Younger generations of consumers are experimenting more with the flavors of drinks and choosing all kinds of light alcohol offerings: from various beer and wine drinks to trendy soju, says Dmitry Tokarev, Managing partner of Retention.
Budgets and excise taxes: revenues are growing despite the recession
The budgets of the regions receive not only revenue from excise taxes, but also the risks of losing revenue in the future. So far, regional budgets have received additional income from alcohol compared to 2024. But, perhaps, by the end of 2026, the amount of excise duties will not increase, predicts Pavel Shapkin, head of the Center for the Development of National Alcohol Policy.
The main revenues of excise taxes from alcoholic beverages to the budget are provided by strong alcoholic beverages and brewing products. Most likely, excise tax receipts from the alcohol market in 2025 will be slightly lower than expected estimates, but definitely higher than the receipts of 2024, says Vladislav Spirin, head of the Association of Producers of Russian Vodka.
— The drop in sales is a direct consequence of the increase in excise tax rates and minimum prices for alcoholic beverages. Starting from January 1, 2025, excise tax rates were indexed by 15%, and minimum prices by 17%," Shapkin adds.
Alcohol-free boom: myth or reality
Interest in "zero" (beer, wine, cocktails with an alcohol content of 0-0.5%) is growing, especially among young people, but its sustainability in the face of new excise taxes remains questionable. Now this trend is really observed in the global alcohol market, and its appearance in Russia should be expected within the next five years, the Tatspirtprom press service predicts.
— Over the past decade, there has been a steady increase in consumer interest in non-alcoholic beer and the volume of its production is growing. Mostly young people are showing interest. The same trend is observed all over the world," confirms Pavel Shapkin.
According to Vyacheslav Efimov, Director of Government Relations at Beverages Together, consumers are increasingly choosing a non-alcoholic product, and demand among the younger audience is gradually shifting towards non-alcoholic and low-alcohol categories.
"Today, the same cocktails are available ready—made, in cans and bottles, and they compete with their bar counterparts in taste and recipe," says Pavel Pobedkin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of PJSC AGK, the ultimate beneficiary of KLVZ Kristall LLC. — Yes, they are more expensive than the classic "weak alcohol", but at the same time they remain much more affordable than drinks from the bar menu, which makes this format understandable and attractive to consumers.
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