F-35 again: Russia blamed the United States for the escalation around Iran
The Middle East is on the verge of war. Experts note the likelihood of a US attack on Iran, one of the largest countries in the region. An American aircraft carrier strike group is stationed in the Indian Ocean. Washington explains its actions by its desire to get a new nuclear deal from Tehran. In fact, the United States and its allies have repeatedly sabotaged previous similar agreements with the Islamic Republic. The US negotiating approaches look more like ultimatums, although the situation must be resolved gradually and delicately, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, told Izvestia.
The United States is preparing a strike on Iran, Russia offers a way out
The situation around Iran is escalating. According to The New York Times, the military will launch an attack within one to two days. According to Corriere della Sera, Italy has already withdrawn some of its diplomatic staff from the Islamic Republic. Turkey, according to Middle East Eye, is creating a buffer zone on the border with Iran to contain the flow of refugees.
— We are always ready to provide mediation services if requested by both contracting parties, but this is not yet the case. Of course, first of all, Washington and Tehran should negotiate with each other, but it seems that the lack of progress on the bilateral track is largely due to the specifics of the extremely demanding negotiating approaches of the United States, which look more like an ultimatum, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, told Izvestia.
Iran is currently maintaining contacts with the United States. An exchange of messages is taking place between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. But, according to Tehran, such a dialogue cannot be called full-fledged negotiations.
The real purpose of the United States in Iran
The United States officially explains its actions as an attempt to protect protesters in Iran — mass riots have been going on in the country since the end of December last year. However, many believe that the real goal of the United States is to overthrow the current government and prevent the creation of nuclear weapons in the country. Although it was Washington that withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018 under Donald Trump. Despite attempts to revive the agreement, the parties failed to find a compromise, and last summer, America and Israel attacked Iran.
— Israel and the United States attacked facilities that were under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that is, facilities whose purely peaceful nature was certified by the agency. Moreover, neither the Director General of the IAEA nor the Board of Governors were able to give an adequate negative assessment of these events, although they represented a powerful blow to the nuclear non—proliferation regime," Ulyanov stressed.
The consequences of the Israeli Army's shelling of Iran
The issue of resuming agency inspections is currently on the agenda, the diplomat added. According to him, it is necessary to move towards this goal "without haste, consistently, but very delicately if we want to achieve a positive result, and not another escalation." At the same time, unlike Western countries, Moscow is not going to "escalate the situation and demand the immediate resumption of access by IAEA inspectors to all nuclear facilities in Iran." The Russian Federation is ready to facilitate an agreement between the agency and Iran, if it is required by both sides, Ulyanov said.
In November 2025, the head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, said that since the end of hostilities between Iran and Israel, the agency had conducted more than a dozen inspections, but had not gained access to key nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
Is it worth waiting for a large-scale invasion of Iran
There is indeed a possibility that the United States will strike Iran, says Vadim Koroshchupov, a junior researcher at IMEMO RAS. The NYT writes that the United States has sent a dozen F-15E fighter jets to the region. In addition, the latest F-35s are on board the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln.
The F-35 aircraft carrier
Iran has strengthened its air defense and missile defense systems after the June war, orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia. According to Israeli estimates, the country has up to 1.5 thousand ballistic missiles in service, as well as support in the form of the Yemeni Houthis and the Lebanese Hezbollah. Although the power of the "Axis of Resistance" is now significantly weakened as a result of the war in Gaza.
Most likely, the American ships are in the Gulf of Oman, where the US 5th Fleet is based. According to Israeli media reports, the strike group includes destroyers and submarines equipped with Tomahawk missiles, which, according to Koroshchupov, are capable of reaching Tehran in 75-110 minutes.
"A limited operation like the one with the B—2 bombers last summer is quite likely," Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. — It is impossible to change the regime with the help of such an operation, but you can demonstrate your strength and try to force Iran to accept American demands.
There will be no large-scale invasion of Iran, the expert is sure. This will require troops of 100 thousand people. For example, the United States sent 150,000 troops to Afghanistan and Iraq, while Tehran is a more serious opponent.
If severe damage is inflicted on Iran, the republic may respond by attacking American bases located on the territory of Arab states, as well as its main American ally, Israel. In addition, Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the Middle Eastern oil passes.
"If Iran does this, oil prices will skyrocket, and this will also be a problem for the United States,— Blokhin concluded.
The destabilization of Iran will completely change the landscape of the Middle East, Tsukanov is sure. In addition to the migration crisis that will engulf the Arabian monarchies, as well as the potential division of the country into small ethnic regions under the formal control of the center, by analogy with Syria, economic collapse and the formation of a permanent area of tension along the Afghanistan—Iran–Pakistan line are among the risks. Therefore, even the closest US allies are dissuading Washington from invading, the expert concluded.
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