The Middle East is on edge: what will the escalation between the United States and Iran lead to?

Iran is preparing for the worst-case scenario in relations with the United States. The country's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, according to media reports, took refuge in an underground shelter in Tehran amid reports of an impending attack by Washington. Earlier it became known that the Pentagon is increasing its military presence in the Persian Gulf. At the same time, there is no single decision on a military scenario yet — opinions on the expediency of a strike in the White House are divided. The probability of a new escalation in the Middle East and its possible consequences is described in the Izvestia article.

"What will you sow"

The US army may attack Iran in the near future, according to Israeli and Iranian media. On Friday, an aircraft carrier strike group led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, accompanied by destroyers, was sent towards the Middle East. "We may not have to use it. We'll see," President Donald Trump warned.

Photo: Global Look Press/Benjamin D. Applebaum

This information was taken seriously in Tehran. "If America makes a mistake based on the miscalculations of a misguided president, its soldiers in the region will say goodbye to their families," threatened Ebrahim Azizi, head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Parliament of the Islamic Republic.

At the same time, the Iranian authorities are stepping up their work with the domestic audience. So, in the center of Tehran, a billboard appeared with the image of a destroyed American aircraft carrier and the inscription: "If you sow the wind, you reap the storm."

Closer to the East: Washington is tightening its fist to the borders of Iran

After a series of internal protests in the Islamic Republic, the United States is once again betting on a show of force.

Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian, in turn, said that a possible attempt to attack the supreme leader would be "tantamount to an all-out war against the Iranian people." At the same time, according to the opposition publication Iran International, Ali Khamenei himself is in an underground shelter. Part of the management of his office was allegedly transferred to the Ayatollah's third son, Masoud Khamenei.

Amid discussions of a possible escalation, internal disagreements in the United States have also escalated. According to Israeli media reports, the American administration has split into supporters of military intervention and opponents of such a scenario.

The first camp includes Vice President Jay Dee Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Jared Kushner and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff are against it. A similar split is observed among Washington's allies: the United Kingdom, Israel and the United Arab Emirates advocate a military scenario, while Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar take a more restrained position.

Photo: Global Look Press/U.S. Navy

In Moscow, the prospect of a forceful development of events is assessed negatively. A possible US strike on Iran will lead to serious destabilization in the region, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned. He called on the parties to exercise restraint and "focus exclusively on peaceful negotiations."

"Russia continues to make efforts to help de-escalate tensions. And of course, in this case, we would like to expect restraint from all interested parties," the Kremlin spokesman said.

What to expect from the USA

The risk of an American strike on Iran remains extremely high, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. First of all, this is indicated by the concentration of American forces near the region. On Monday, January 26, the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln arrived at the shores of the Islamic Republic.

Over the past day, at least six C-17A Globemaster III heavy transport aircraft have flown to the Middle East, according to Flightradar24 data. An American EA-37B aircraft designed to suppress enemy communications, navigation and radar systems has also been deployed to the region.

Photo: Global Look Press/Sgt. 1st Class Jon Soucy

"An attack is possible," says Kamran Hasanov, a doctor of political science at the University of Salzburg. — Behind closed doors, Washington is probably issuing ultimatums to Tehran on ballistic and nuclear programs, demanding their curtailment. However, Iran does not abandon these programs, which means that the possibility of new US strikes remains.

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If last summer the strikes were mainly aimed at nuclear facilities, now the list of potential targets may expand. According to Hasanov, Iranian air defense systems, aviation, headquarters, and even the country's political leadership may come under attack. Strategic infrastructure may also be targeted: power plants, oil and gas fields, marine communications, tankers and ships.

"Trump will hope to spur internal unrest in the elite, create a split between reformers and conservatives as a result of his military actions,— Hasanov suggested. — He also expects to create a humanitarian crisis in order to repeat a new attempt at revolution.

According to him, the White House's bet on the internal destabilization of Iran through the protests that began on December 28 after the collapse of the national currency and rising prices did not pay off.

REUTERS/Jack Taylor

"The window of opportunity for the so—called double operation — regime change and external intervention — has been missed," the expert believes.

A special agreement is needed: Iran and the United States are looking for a new deal.

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran are possible, but real steps are still far away.

Possible answer

However, Tehran will not sit idly by. As political analyst Ilgar Velizade stated in an interview with Izvestia, the republic may strike at American facilities located in the Middle East, as well as Israel.

— How large-scale and proportionate such a response will turn out to be is still anyone's guess. At the same time, the situation remains extremely difficult for the country: in recent months, both Israel and the United States have significantly increased their military readiness.

The possibility of a military scenario was discussed in Washington back in mid-January. Then it was reported that Trump instructed the Pentagon to prepare options for a strike on Iran. However, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar insisted on abandoning military action, as this step would affect oil prices and the global economy.

Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

If the United States does escalate, the level of distrust of Washington in the region will grow, experts say. Individual States in the Middle East are already thinking about finding additional security guarantees and alternative formats of interaction. So, in January, Turkey, according to media reports, considered the possibility of joining the emerging military alliance with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

— But in the short term, the Arab countries are not able to put up serious resistance. They will not fight with America and Israel over Iran. Turkey doesn't like the whole thing, but I don't rule out that Trump offered President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a trade: the Syrian Kurds in exchange for the Islamic Republic," Hasanov notes.

Of course, statements of concern and restrained diplomatic signals are possible, Ilgar Velizade notes. But neither Qatar nor Saudi Arabia will spoil relations with the Americans because of this.

— In the regional context, Tehran remains relatively isolated. Few States are willing to openly side with him. Yes, words of sympathy or regret may sound, but such political rhetoric will not affect either the balance of power in the region or the position of key US allies, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar," the political scientist concluded.