Roast the bird: pork has fallen in price amid an increase in chicken imports from China

The growth of chicken meat supplies from China has led to lower wholesale prices and an oversaturation of the pork market, Izvestia has learned. Additional pressure was exerted by the reduction in demand for this type of meat in retail. As a result, prices have decreased to the cost level — the average wholesale price of a half carcass at the end of January decreased by 21%, to 155 rubles per kilogram, calculated in the analytical company NTech. Meat processors are reviewing recipes and increasingly replacing pork with poultry in the production of sausages. When prices will start to rise again and what factors will affect it — in the Izvestia article.

Why have wholesale pork prices dropped?

The average wholesale price of pork half carcasses of the second category in the period from January 19 to January 25, 2026 decreased by 21% compared to the previous week and amounted to 155 rubles per 1 kg, and in annual terms — by 23%. This is evidenced by the data from NTech, which was reviewed by Izvestia. Ham in the wholesale segment fell in price by 14% year—on-year to 220 rubles per 1 kg, which was the lowest value since the beginning of 2025. The price of the blade decreased by 20%, to 200 rubles per 1 kg. The average wholesale price of a live pig in the fourth week of the year was 113 rubles per 1 kg — 19% lower than the level of the same period last year — and also became the lowest since the beginning of 2025.

Prices on the pork market are approaching the cost level and are on the verge of profitability, the co-owner of a large pig breeding company told Izvestia. In some cases, they have already fallen below cost, said Kristina Romanovskaya, head of the Lazarevskoye agricultural holding. According to a representative of Cherkizovo Group, this trend is related to both the growth of domestic production and the import of chicken fillets from China, the main volumes of which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2025. This, in turn, led to the temporary closure of the needs of the meat processing segment, he said.

According to the results of last year, more than 110 thousand tons of chicken meat were imported from China to Russia, or about 20 thousand tons per month, according to data from the National Union of Pig Breeders (NCC). Poultry imports from China have actually replaced products from Brazil on the Russian market, which domestic processors have traditionally used as raw materials, said Sergey Yushin, head of the National Meat Association. According to him, the wholesale cost of chicken fillet from China was about $1.4 per kilogram against $2.5 per kilogram for Brazilian products. For comparison, the wholesale price of chicken fillets from Russian producers, according to NTech, in the period from January 19 to January 25 reached 275 rubles per kilogram (about $3.6 at the current exchange rate). The low cost of Chinese chicken, the expert explained, is due to the fact that it is mainly an export product that is not in demand in the domestic market of the republic.

The situation has contributed to the fact that meat processors have begun to actively change the recipe — poultry is used instead of meat in the production of sausage products, a top manager of a large agricultural holding confirmed. This trend began back in 2025, Izvestia wrote. Sausage producers used minced poultry as an alternative to pork after prices for half carcasses and ham increased since the end of July last year, said Albert Davleev, president of Agrifood Strategies.

Miratorg and Agroeco declined to comment.

In January – November 2025, the production of pigs for slaughter in live weight in agricultural organizations amounted to 5.3 million tons (+0.5 YoY), said a representative of the Ministry of Agriculture. According to him, these production volumes provide the domestic market and keep the price situation stable. He attributes the decrease in wholesale cost to the seasonal factor.

The wholesale cost of pork in half carcasses is at the level of the same period last year (-0.3%) and averages 196.4 rubles per kilogram, the representative of the department cited data from the food safety monitoring and forecasting system.

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Purchases of shrimp have also increased dramatically.

What's going on at the meat market

The price reduction is systemic, said Ilya Bereznyuk, Managing Partner of Agro and Food Communications. This trend began to take shape back in September 2025 due to changes in the pig market, said Yuri Kovalev, CEO of the NCC. For a number of positions, the market is already trading at levels that are "critically low" for most manufacturers, Kristina Romanovskaya added.

The growth rate of the Russian pork market in 2025 remained at the level of 2024, amounting to 6.3 million tons in slaughter weight, said Yuri Kovalev. For comparison, its annual growth in 2004-2024 was at least 5-10%, Ilya Bereznyuk added. According to him, this is due to its saturation, as well as the marginal level of pork consumption among the population.

The annual average per capita consumption of pork in Russia reached a historic maximum of 31.3 kg per person by the end of last year, said Yuri Kovalev. At the same time, the growing financial burden on Russian households has led to changes in the structure of consumer demand for meat, Sergei Yushin pointed out. At the same time, there was no reduction in demand for pork in retail at the beginning of January, said a representative of Lenta.

Pork consumption still has the potential to grow — with active marketing interventions in the industry, it may increase by 3-4 kg by 2030, reaching at least 34-35 kg per person, Ilya Bereznyuk believes. This could also be facilitated by strengthening social support for the poor from the state, Sergei Yushin noted.

The strengthening of the ruble restrains the growth rate of pork exports, which leads to lower prices in the domestic market, he added. By the end of 2025, exports reached almost 400 thousand tons in slaughter weight against 322 thousand tons in 2024, said Yuri Kovalev. Thus, the indicator increased by almost a quarter in annual terms.

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This will help increase its consumption and give a new impetus to the development of the industry.

Pork prices may return to growth in February, a Cherkizovo representative predicts. In the first half of this year, they will show a short-term slight decrease with a possible seasonal correction in the summer against the background of increased demand during the "barbecue season," Ilya Bereznyuk admitted.

Further development of the market, according to him, will depend on the industry's ability to "gently" increase the added value of meat products, as well as on maintaining an acceptable level of profitability in conditions of limited domestic demand. At the same time, in the current situation, some producers will be forced to reduce their livestock or leave the market, Kristina Romanovskaya believes.