Estimated battle: The European Union will accelerate militarization in the next three years

The EU is confident that a direct conflict with Russia may begin in the next three years, the European Parliament told Izvestia. This is how the elites justify the increasing pace of militarization in the community. SAFE's rearmament mechanism, which provides for collective borrowing of up to €150 billion, should be operational as early as 2026. However, this will lead to an increase in the debt burden for countries whose industries are already in deep crisis, the Russian permanent mission to the EU told Izvestia. Nevertheless, new rearmament programs, including air defense and missile defense, are already being discussed in Europe. About the problems of militarization of the region — in the material of Izvestia.

The European Union accelerates militarization

The European Union is officially moving into a phase of accelerated rearmament, the scale of which has no precedent in the modern history of unification. Such hasty steps in Brussels today are justified by preparations for an "existential threat." A consensus has already been formed in Europe on this issue, and publicly: the elites of the association openly declare the need to prepare for a direct military clash with Russia.

Photo: Global Look Press/Julian Stratenschulte

On January 21, Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Sandvik designated it as the main threat to the West and NATO, pointing to the increase in Russian activity in the Arctic. On December 16, the leaders of the eight EU countries at a meeting in Helsinki stated that Russia is the "most significant, direct and long—term threat" to security in the Euro-Atlantic region.

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As confirmed to Izvestia by French MEP Thierry Mariani, answering a question about the timing, the largest parties of the European Parliament now consider a conflict with the Russian Federation very likely or even inevitable in the next three years.

— My answer is yes. <...> War with Russia is likely because "Russia is looking for it." This is indeed the position of many groups (in the European Parliament. — Ed.). Hence the need to rearm, equip, and so on," he said.

Photo: Global Look Press/Julian Stratenschulte

This position is shared by the MEP from the ruling party, Tomasz Zdechowski. According to him, the Russian Federation has radically changed the security environment in Europe by its allegedly aggressive behavior.

— Unfortunately, I do see a real risk of an armed conflict involving Russia and one of the EU member states in the next three years if Europe remains weak or divided. The Russian Federation has repeatedly demonstrated that it does not respect either international law or borders. Her leadership understands only strength. The question is not whether Russia is capable of further aggression, but whether Europe is prepared enough to prevent it," Zdechowski told Izvestia.

It should be noted that Russia is conducting a special military operation in Ukraine to protect the civilian population of Donbass and ensure its own security. Moscow has consistently stressed that it has no aggressive plans towards the EU or NATO countries.

Photo: Global Look Press/Benoit Doppagne

In particular, in response to the call by the Secretary General of the alliance, Mark Rutte, for the Europeans to prepare for the war that the "grandfathers and great-grandfathers" experienced, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused European politicians of escalating and called Rutte's words irresponsible.

Earlier, he stated that Russia was ready to fix a provision on non-aggression against European countries, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed that Moscow had never intended to attack the EU or NATO. As expected, there was no reaction from Western capitals to a specific proposal from Moscow.

The problems of Europe's rearmament

Brussels' political determination to fight is being confronted by harsh economic reality. The main instrument of accelerated militarization is becoming the SAFE mechanism (a program for joint arms purchases). The tool allows EU countries to receive preferential loans under the general guarantees of the EU budget, but the association does not stop there.

— Several new rearmament programs and the development of the military-industrial complex are being discussed throughout Europe. The focus is on joint purchases, strengthening European defense production capacities, air and missile defense, ammunition stocks and military mobility," Zdechowski said.

Photo: Global Look Press/Florian Gaertner

SAFE is already at a "low start". On January 15, the European Commission submitted specific proposals to the EU Council on approving assistance programs for the first group of countries — Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Spain, Cyprus, Portugal, Romania and Croatia. After four weeks of decision-making, the financial flow of up to €150 billion will be officially opened.

At the same time, the total expenses are much higher. According to the European Commission's ambitious plan to "rearm Europe," the total military expenditures of EU countries should amount to 800 billion euros. Of this amount, only €150 billion will be raised through the SAFE mechanism, while the rest — €650 billion — states will have to allocate independently due to a sharp increase in national defense spending. In 2024, they reached €88 billion, which meant an increase of 39% by 2023. A larger figure is planned for 2025, which is already over €100 billion.

Photo: Global Look Press/Marijan Murat

For many states facing budget deficits, SAFE acts as a "convenient way" to cover military needs at the expense of the general debt, the Russian permanent mission to the EU told Izvestia. However, future generations will have to pay for this.

— The question arises: are such schemes fair in relation to Europeans, who are actually being subjected to a "debt yoke"? The current aggressive policy of Brussels has already led to a drop in living standards in the EU and a crisis in the industrial sector. If this course is continued, the negative trends will become irreversible," they stressed.

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At a meeting with the ambassadors, Putin assessed the situation on the world stage that had developed by the beginning of the year.

Against this background, the EU continues to increase its debt burden, including for the sake of Ukraine. On January 20, the European Parliament voted in favor of a procedure on draft laws that will allow it to provide a loan of €90 billion during 2026-2027. Earlier, the EU failed to agree on the confiscation of frozen Russian assets for these purposes, so now European taxpayers will finance weapons for Kiev.

— We are borrowing money to lend it to Ukraine. This means that no one wants to lend to her directly, and banks don't trust her. We have a very high chance of never getting that money back," explained Thierry Mariani.

Photo: Global Look Press/Karl-Josef Hildenbrand

According to him, Ukraine will have to repay the debt only when it begins to receive "reparations" from Russia, which makes a refund extremely unlikely. Financial risks, along with militarization imposed from above, have exposed the split within Europe.

At the moment, only France has the full range of necessary technologies, and the specialization of other countries is too narrow. This leads to the fact that European money is actually spent on the purchase of equipment in the United States, which turns rearmament into an "obsession" beneficial to foreign countries, the deputy concluded.