The expert assessed the prospects of the dollar exchange rate after the January strengthening of the ruble

Ilya Rusyaev, a business consultant and founder of the Rusyaev Club business community, assessed the prospects for the dollar exchange rate after the January strengthening of the ruble on January 22 in an interview with Izvestia and outlined possible scenarios for its dynamics during 2026.

According to him, on January 22 of this year, the dollar in the interbank market fell below 76 rubles: at about 10:50 Moscow time, the quotes were about 75.95 rubles. At the same time, the official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on that date was set at 77.5159 rubles per dollar. Rusyaev noted that the discrepancy is explained by the calculation methodology: the regulator determines the official exchange rate based on banks' reports on over-the-counter interbank conversion transactions, while market quotations reflect current transactions at a specific time.

"Government documents and the regulator usually provide average annual benchmarks. The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts 92.2 rubles per dollar on average for 2026, and the macro survey of the Bank of Russia, reflecting the consensus of analysts, indicates 90.3 rubles. These are the two most officially supported numbers for the scenario forecast," the expert said.

If the beginning of the year takes place with a stronger ruble — in the range of 76-78 rubles — and the average annual benchmark remains near 90-92 rubles, then in the second half of the year the exchange rate should be higher, that is, the ruble should be weaker. Rusyaev gave an arithmetic example: in order to keep the exchange rate at about 78 rubles in the first three months with an annual average of 92.2 rubles, the remaining nine months should give an average value of about 96.9 rubles per dollar. This means that either the end of the year will be below the official targets, or a noticeable weakening of the ruble will be required later.

The expert called the parameters of the budget rule an additional factor. The Bank of Russia previously reported the volume of transactions related to the National Welfare Fund for the first half of 2026 at about 4.62 billion rubles per day. The market often perceives a decrease in regular foreign exchange sales by the state as a factor in weakening support for the ruble.

Nothing has changed: even in a stressful scenario, the dollar exchange rate will not become triple-digit.

Why will the ruble gradually weaken and how can it react to the Ukrainian settlement?

In the baseline scenario, Rusyaev expects an average annual exchange rate in the range of 89-93 rubles per dollar, which is consistent with consensus estimates. He estimates the working corridor throughout the year to be wider — 80-100 rubles, allowing for significant deviations from the average. In his opinion, the end of 2026 may be in the range of 92-100 rubles per dollar if the weakening of the ruble increases in the second and third quarters. Among the market estimates for the end of the year, the expert mentioned forecasts near 92-93 rubles and about 95 rubles for individual financial groups.

Alternative scenarios also remain possible. A stronger ruble in the range of 70-80 rubles per dollar can be maintained only with a rare combination of favorable factors. On the contrary, the departure of the exchange rate above 100 rubles in the second half of the year is possible with a deterioration in the external environment, a decrease in export earnings or a more rapid easing of monetary policy.

Separately, Rusyaev drew attention to the practical side of currency calculations. He stressed that it is important to clearly state in contracts which exchange rate is applied — the official rate of the Bank of Russia, the rate of a particular bank or the exchange rate — as well as the date of its determination: the date of payment, invoice or shipment.

"The interbank 75.9 and the official exchange rate of 77.5 are different legal bindings," the expert concluded.

On January 20, Reuters reported that financial markets reacted sharply to renewed concerns about a potential trade war between the United States and the European Union (EU), which intensified amid the dispute over Greenland. Against this background, investors began to withdraw from risky assets. The dollar index, which reflects the exchange rate of the US currency against a basket of major world currencies, decreased by 0.9%. European stock markets also recorded a significant drop: the German DAX index and the Italian FTSE MIB each lost 1.3%.

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